How the GOP Could Win

realclearpolitics.com ^ | June 26, 2007 | Richard Cohen

[neverdem]

There are two ways to predict the winner of the 2008 presidential race: Check the polls or read some history. The polls tell you that with George Bush's approval ratings abysmally low, with the war in Iraq becoming increasingly unpopular, with the GOP lacking a dominant candidate, and with the party divided over immigration, social issues and even religion (Mitt Romney's Mormonism), the next president is bound to be a Democrat. History begs to differ.

The history I have in mind is 1972. By the end of that year, 56,844 Americans had been killed in Vietnam, a war that almost no one thought could still be won and which no...

--snip--

Precisely right, Joe. But more than right, prescient as well. As if to suggest what an issue this will become, Rudolph Giuliani called Clinton's vote a "significant flip-flop.'' Since then the Republicans have mostly trained their fire on each other. You can bet, though, that if Clinton gets the nomination, this vote will be hung around her neck and the hoariest of cliches will be trotted out: weak on defense. It will have added resonance because Clinton is a woman.

This is where history raises it ugly head. The GOP is adept at painting Democrats as soft on national security. It is equally adept at saying so in the most scurrilous way. And while most Americans would like the war to end, they do not favor a precipitous withdrawal and neither have they forgotten Sept. 11, 2001 -- the entirety of Giuliani's case for the presidency, after all.

Will History trump the polls? It will, if as in the past, the Democratic Party so wounds itself fighting the war against the war, it nominates a candidate beloved by a minority but mistrusted by a majority. It has happened before.

[familyop]

Here's something more than rhetoric. Let's have a look at the evidence.

from Thompson’s voting record on immigration with only two terms in office.
http://profiles.numbersusa.com/improfile.php3?DistSend=TN&VIPID=743

Voted in 1996 to continue chain migration

Voted to strip legal reforms from 1996 bill

Voted in favor of chain migration in 1996

Voted for a foreign worker bill with no anti-fraud measures in 2000.

As Committee member, produced H-1B doubling bill in 1998

Nearly doubled H-1B foreign high-tech workers in 1998

Voted in committee against including worker safeguards in H-1B bill in 1998

Voted to allow firms to lay off Americans to make room for foreign workers in 1998

Voted to allow firms to lay off Americans to make room for foreign workers in 1998

Voted to grant amnesty to close to one million illegal aliens from Nicaragua and Cuba in 1997

In 1996, removed higher fines for businesses which hire illegal aliens

Tried to kill voluntary pilot programs for workplace verification in 1996

Fred Thompson is Chairman of Condoleeza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board in the State Dept. (see information below).

Duncan Hunter: Vietnam combat veteran, 173rd Airborne and 75th Army Rangers, Bronze Star, and Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee until the Democrat majority was voted in during the 2006 election. Congressman Hunter continues to work in the Armed Services Committee.

Fred Thompson:
Fred Thompson voted in favor of the "1997 McCain-Feingold overhaul of campaign finance."

Fred Thompson's record on immigration:

* Voted YES on allowing more foreign workers into the US for farm work. (Jul 1998)
* Voted YES on visas for skilled workers. (May 1998)
* Voted YES on limit welfare for immigrants. (Jun 1997)

Duncan Hunter's record on immigration:

* Voted YES on preventing tipping off Mexicans about Minuteman Project. (Jun 2006)
* Voted YES on reporting illegal aliens who receive hospital treatment. (May 2004)
* Voted NO on extending Immigrant Residency rules. (May 2001)
* Voted NO on more immigrant visas for skilled workers. (Sep 1998)
* Rated 100% by FAIR, indicating a voting record restricting immigration. (Dec 2003)

Fred Thompson:

* Voted YES on extending free trade to Andean nations. (May 2002)
* Voted YES on granting normal trade relations status to Vietnam. (Oct 2001)
* Voted NO on removing common goods from national security export rules. (Sep 2001)
* Voted YES on permanent normal trade relations with China. (Sep 2000)
* Voted YES on expanding trade to the third world. (May 2000)
* Voted YES on renewing 'fast track' presidential trade authority. (Nov 1997)
* Voted YES on imposing trade sanctions on Japan for closed market. (May 1995)

Duncan Hunter:

* Voted NO on implementing CAFTA, Central America Free Trade. (Jul 2005)
* Voted YES on implementing US-Australia Free Trade Agreement. (Jul 2004)
* Voted NO on implementing US-Singapore free trade agreement. (Jul 2003)
* Voted NO on implementing free trade agreement with Chile. (Jul 2003)
* Voted YES on withdrawing from the WTO. (Jun 2000)
* Voted NO on 'Fast Track' authority for trade agreements. (Sep 1998)
* Rated 24% by CATO, indicating a pro-fair trade voting record. (Dec 2002)

Fred Thompson:

* Voted YES on permanent normal trade relations with China. (Sep 2000) [under "Free Trade"]

Duncan Hunter:

* Voted NO on Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China. (May 2000) [under "Foreign Policy]

http://www.state.gov/t/isn/isab/

International Security Advisory Board (ISAB)

The Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board (formerly called the Arms Control and Nonproliferation Advisory Board (ACNAB)) provides the Department with independent insight and advice on all aspects of arms control, disarmament, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy. The ISAB is sponsored and overseen by the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security. The Board provides its recommendations directly to the Secretary of State. The Board currently has 20 members and is chartered to have up to 25. Board members are national security experts with scientific, military, diplomatic, and political backgrounds. The Board meets in a plenary session on a quarterly basis.

Updated: April 19, 2007

http://www.state.gov/t/isn/isab/c17650.htm

Board Members

— Senator Fred Thompson (Chairman)
— Dr. Michael R. Anastasio
— Dr. Kathleen Bailey
— Dr. Ashton B. Carter
— Ms. Alison B. Fortier
— Dr. William Graham
— Amb. Robert Joseph
— Mr. Mitchel B. Kugler
— Dr. Ronald F. Lehman, II
— Vice Admiral Robert R. Monroe, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
— Dr. Gordon C. Oehler
— Dr. Keith B. Payne
— Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
— Senator Charles S. Robb
— Dr. C. Paul Robinson
— Dr. Amy Sands
— Dr. James R. Schlesinger
— Dr. William Schneider, Jr
— Dr. William Van Cleave
— Mr. R. James Woolsey

[John Valentine]

Give it a rest. You got no tread on your tires.

[Half Vast Conspiracy]

Why call him stupid? Theres no need for any of that crap around here. Whether you agree or disagree with another poster, do so respectfully. Name calling degrades the quality of this forum. Maybe you should look for another website to post on.

He's disagreeing with the article, not the poster.

[familyop]

...related.

Military Experience Rare Among ‘08 Candidates
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1855890/posts

[freeangel]

If amnesty is voted for today, the GOP will not win again for at least 20 years, even with wonderful people like Hunter or Thompson running.

[LEARNED FOREVER]

"Actually, the GOP is not in as big of trouble as a lot of people seem to think in 2008." So far, so good. Let's hear it.

"The Dems have a big weakness........their candidates." True. Indicative of a party with huge problems.

"Their primary is another freakshow...Basically three choices..."

Obama. A man with no executive experience and less than one term of experience in the federal legislature. He almost seems to be running on the unspoken premise that he’s an articulate black man." Because they are shallow.

John Edwards. Yeah, the Breck Girl. This guy is such a lightweight..." He had 4yrs to perfect a campaign, the best he could do: The War on Terror is a bumper sticker slogan. He considers Danny Glover an asset.

"Hillary Clinton. Oh boy, the most divisive female figure in America." Eugene McCarty and George McGovern reincarnated. Un-electable to the nth degree.

"It amazes me that the Dems are as cocky as they are with this clownshow they have going for a primary season." Shallow.Empty.Dead.

[George W. Bush]

Since JFK every Dem national figure has in fact been weak on defense.

JFK too. He portrayed himself by making up garbage about vast fleets of Soviet ICBMs, something Ike knew wasn't true. In truth, our intel photos showed they had 3-4 of them laying on the ground in obvious disrepair. JFK's meeting with Krushchev in Austria and his bubbly talk convinced Krushchev that the Boy President was incompetent and could be pressed to nuclear concessions in siting Soviet missiles off our coast. This led directly to the Cuban missile crisis and our subsequent withdrawal of our nukes from Turkey. So Krushchev didn't lose. He gambled that he could get our missiles out of Turkey or force Kennedy to accept his missiles in Cuba. And Krushchev was right: Kennedy was weak and stupid like all the Kennedy's except old Joe.

So lying about foreign military menace and then behaving so stupidly with a totalitarian dictator that you bring the world to the brink of global nuclear war is still being weak on defense. Just like all the Dims are weak on defense. No need to even begin on all the lying and idiocy that he and his best-and-brightest committed to drag us into Vietnam.

Camelot, bah! Some things never change. We need to stop giving any aid and comfort to this false notion of JFK as "strong on defense". He was a weak sister and a lying philandering narcotics-addicted rogue, a son of privilege who was generally incompetent or dangerous while in office and whose legacy mostly revolves around the fact that he was telegenic and assassinated before the American public understood that he was just another weak-on-defense morally corrupt and incompetent Democrat.

[Convert from ECUSA]

Sadly, the current Administration will do none of the things listed.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Nominate Fred Thompson.

[KenmcG414]

If the Pubbies in the senate vote to stuff the immigration-amnesty-scam bill down our throats, they will be “toast” for many years to come.

[Edit35]

Republicans MUST learn to fight back, and NOT be afraid to lambast the attack-media dogs each time they ignore the huge liberal sins and concentrate on itsy bitsy Republican items.

[Daveinyork]

It seems that the old guard,so-called moderates (actually liberals) seem to care more about keeping control of the Republican party than they care about winning elections, and controlling the government.

[OKSooner]

According to a well-known toe sucker, the Republicans don't stand a chance in '08. This is the theory:

There are 100 Million registered voters who are dumbasses. The kind of dumbasses who live on entitlement benefits and don't give a dookey about politics. HOWEVER, when the rats nominate a (ahem) female candidate for President and when Oprah says "vote for her", these 100 Million dumbasses who normally don't vote will go to the polls in droves, and they'll break for the rats 4 to 1.

Then it's all over. That's what the toe sucker says, anyway. Not that I've got anything against toe suckers mind you, only the ones who pay for it.

[NYC Republican]

Nominate Duncan Hunter

Nominate Buchanan... Nominate Keyes... I've seen this all before. I'm tired of these fringe candidates being shoved down our throats by FReepers who live in a bubble, far from reality

[mdefranc]

So far as www.intrade.com probabilities of being nominated, Representative Hunter started with 2.0 percent in November 2006 and, now, after three national debates, has a nomination probability of 0.1 percent. Freepers backing him are wasting time and resources on a failed campaign, time and resources that would be better expended on a conservative with a realistic chance to winning.

[NYC Republican]

EXACTLY. See this thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1804334/posts

[Jabba the Nutt]

This article is too funny. "Democrats soft on national defense" = "hoary cliche".

Also, this is wrong: "...the party divided over immigration...". The party is united on immigration, certain elected politicians are off the reservation, but they will be taken care of during the primaries.

[gonzo]

"...Sadly, the current Administration will do none of the things listed..."

Yeah, you're right. We're pretty much on our own now, just waiting for the next muzzie-attack in the USA this year.

Maybe our domestic-muzzies will get-in on the attack this time. Should be interesting ................... FRegards

[gonzo]

You don’t like Thompson? Pick someone else. I just said probable ..................... FRegards

[familyop]

"You don’t like Thompson? Pick someone else. I just said probable ..................... FRegards"

Yes, you did. I'm in favor of Duncan Hunter for the nomination.