Gingrich Is In, It's Just A Matter of When

Human Events ^ | 03/13/2007 | Matt Towery

[B Knotts]

Over the weekend there was a spate of news reports and analyses about Newt Gingrich's confession of past adultery. The Wall Street Journal published an extensive piece over the weekend, speculating on what the "Hamlet" of the 2008 presidential campaign will do -- "to run, or not to run."

It's time for me to say it: I'm 100 percent positive that Gingrich will enter the battle for the GOP nomination. I don't need to hear a confirmation from his lips, nor will I seek to press him on the point. That could put him in the awkward position of having to offer an indefensible untruth.

As for his various past sins, there are untold "other sides" to these matters that are privately mitigating the disapproval conservative Christians might otherwise be starting to heap onto the former speaker.

The real issue for Team Gingrich on a presidential announcement is not if, but when. Newt's original strategy was to sit by and watch earlier-announced candidates flounder and waste money. That might have seemed workable before nearly all heavily populated states with ambition decided to move their presidential primaries to early February. Florida may even hold its primary in January.

All of this may account for why, suddenly, Gingrich appears to be accelerating efforts to raise his press profile, and to engage in a little "dust-busting" on issues such as his past marital problems. With forgiveness now offered by the likes of Jerry Falwell and others, Gingrich already has cleared a major hurdle that he probably hadn't intended to address before the summer.

[LetsRok]

Thompson Pres.
Gingrich VP
Gulliani Atty. General
McLame Sec. Defense

[kempo]

Newt would be as polarizing as Hillery and he would lose that race.

[twigs]

Yes, I believe in forgiveness. Yet, on earth, there is a consequence to sin. It doesn't affect our entering into heaven to spend eternity with God our Father, but it does affect our relationships here on earth. Just ask Karla Faye Tucker. Divorce is common. But Newt cheated. Twice. The last time, at least that we know of, 10 years ago. It's a pattern, just like it was with Bill Clinton. I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for Newt, because I like him in so many other ways. But this pattern in his like makes me look to other candidates first.

[Thermalseeker]

True, but irrelevant.

It was a joke. Whoooosssshhhh........

[twigs]

Yes, I believe in forgiveness. Yet, on earth, there is a consequence to sin. It doesn't affect our entering into heaven to spend eternity with God our Father, but it does affect our relationships here on earth. Just ask Karla Faye Tucker. Divorce is common. But Newt cheated. Twice. The last time, at least that we know of, 10 years ago. It's a pattern, just like it was with Bill Clinton. I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for Newt, because I like him in so many other ways. But this pattern in his life makes me look to other candidates first.

[B Knotts]

That's all true, and I really don't like the way Newt has handled his personal life in the past. But...of the candidates out there, he seems to me the most capable. So, I have to weigh his past behavior with the advantages of having someone as capable as him as president.

The candidate leading the polls has an almost identical marital history, but with the opposite positions on issues.

[twigs]

Yes, I agree. That's why I say that I could vote for him, but only in the absence of other capable Republicans. From what I can see, if Duncan Hunter is still running when I vote in the primaries next year, he will probably get my vote. If neither he nor Fred Thompson is in and Newt is, then I will probably vote for Newt.

[showme_the_Glory]

Thompson Pres. Gingrich VP Gulliani Atty. General McLame Sec. Defense

you forgot the /sarc tag.

[pgkdan]

Newt wasn't feeling the least bit guilty of anything before a few weeks ago

How in the hell do you know that? What a crock. If you don't like Newt just say so. You have no way of knowing what's in the man's heart and mind.

[pgkdan]

I think Towery has a point when he says that alot of the big money for this race is quickly being committed to other candidates. Newt can't wait until September to announce...he's got to give some real strong signals real soon.

[jageorge72]

How is Newt "yesterday's news"??? He has a vast amount of experience, and he has been very actively developing real SOLUTIONS to all of the problems we face...... probably moreso than any candidate in either party.

He is so much more qualified than anyone else, it's scary.

[Bosco]

Sadly, all it takes for the world to fall at your feet is to go out and confess all your past sins, shed a few tears and wring your hands convincingly.

Actually, it's easier than that. The only sins that need to be paid for these days are sins against Mother Earth. And all that it takes is purchasing carbon offset credits. /s

But seriously, the sincerity of Newt's confession and repentance is between Newt and the Lord. One of the consequences of that type of sin is a loss of trust, as others in this thread have mentioned. Some of that trust can be regained over time, but that's based on his actions. "By their fruits shall you know them."

As of right now, I'd vote for Newt.

[Vigilanteman]

How is Newt "yesterday's news"???

In politics, perception counts for more than reality. I appreciate what Newt did for us in 1994. Our best chance of doing it again is if he is in a background role like Karl Rove.

[HitmanLV]

Very true. The choice in elections isn't between a particular candidate and a fantasy candidate, it's between a particular candidate and one (or more) other major candidates.

[ken5050]

Newt will be Rudy's running mate...

[Sen Jack S. Fogbound]

It may be Newt is cleaning out his past to be more palatable to the public. He may not run for president but rather be a member of the Gilliani Adminstration where he can be the most effective in a policy making role.

Rudy is a very good at decision making but he could be weak at policy making, and that's where Newt can really fit in! He knows the big picture and can tell it like it is!

Rudy is not too awful familiar with the Washington, DC political people but he would have Newt to be his seeing-eye guide dog!

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

For posterity's sake (and the 2008 election)....

Gingrich Is In, It's Just A Matter of When

 

Over the weekend there was a spate of news reports and analyses about Newt Gingrich's confession of past adultery. The Wall Street Journal published an extensive piece over the weekend, speculating on what the "Hamlet" of the 2008 presidential campaign will do -- "to run, or not to run."

It's time for me to say it: I'm 100 percent positive that Gingrich will enter the battle for the GOP nomination. I don't need to hear a confirmation from his lips, nor will I seek to press him on the point. That could put him in the awkward position of having to offer an indefensible untruth.

As for his various past sins, there are untold "other sides" to these matters that are privately mitigating the disapproval conservative Christians might otherwise be starting to heap onto the former speaker.

The real issue for Team Gingrich on a presidential announcement is not if, but when. Newt's original strategy was to sit by and watch earlier-announced candidates flounder and waste money. That might have seemed workable before nearly all heavily populated states with ambition decided to move their presidential primaries to early February. Florida may even hold its primary in January.

All of this may account for why, suddenly, Gingrich appears to be accelerating efforts to raise his press profile, and to engage in a little "dust-busting" on issues such as his past marital problems. With forgiveness now offered by the likes of Jerry Falwell and others, Gingrich already has cleared a major hurdle that he probably hadn't intended to address before the summer.

There's certainly a strong and devoted GOP hard core waiting for Gingrich to run. His problem is that too many of the key Republican activists and campaign contributors are already joining other campaigns. A check with one of Gingrich's most prominent sources of major funding confirmed that they might be close to opting for another Republican candidate if Gingrich doesn't give the proper signals soon.

And now, with a primary season likely to commence in January and end, for practical purposes, before March 2008, he may no longer have the luxury of waiting for already financed and organized candidates to collapse.

If Gingrich is waiting for a GOP version of Howard Dean's 2004 meltdown, he's relying on an already outmoded campaign model.

There is both good news and bad in Gingrichland.

The good is that the former speaker is getting treated like a rock star at just about every event he attends these days. Even with his rumpled look, complete with glasses resting on his nose, Gingrich seems to have the same political "sex appeal" that followed Henry Kissinger around in the 1970s -- which is still a mystery to me.

The bad news is that Newt's political acumen has always been sharper in more insulated political arenas like the U.S. House, rather than in the wild world of national electoral politics. Given the time, I could document many political miscalculations Newt made in races he won by the slimmest of margins, but could have won easily had he not outthought himself by trying unique and unnecessary strategies.

Here's just one example: During Gingrich's first congressional re-election bid in 1980, I served as his debate coach. Long before I agreed to that duty, Newt already had challenged his unknown Democratic opponent to an unprecedented series of debates on all three major network TV affiliates in the district, as well as in every county.

Gingrich overwhelmed his poor opponent in these debates. Nevertheless, by the mere holding of them, we supplied the Democrat the badly needed name recognition he lacked.

Sure enough, with just weeks to go until the election, Gingrich's polling showed the Democrat making gains. Big shock. The real problem was that Newt had blown through his cash. He had to hit the road to raise additional money in order to finish off what should have been an inconsequential opponent.

Gingrich's current "September strategy" is to wait to be drafted as a GOP candidate after the collection of uninspiring options now announced all stumble into next year with strategies as flawed as Gingrich's debate-the-unknown-opponent concept was in 1980.

But Newt is fiddling while Rome burns, as campaign checks are being reluctantly written to second-tier choices from sources that would be only too happy to finance Gingrich were he a candidate.

I never ask Newt Gingrich questions. I've never needed to. I know his history like the back of my hand, as I do his brilliant but sometimes whacky political thinking.

Trust me. Newt Gingrich will run for president. Now expect a draft-Gingrich movement to gear into overdrive. Especially with new potential rival Republican candidates also waiting in the wings, such as former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.

With Mitt Romney capturing "the Bushies" state by state, and Sen. John McCain running close behind in the early commitments, Gingrich is running out of time quicker than anticipated.

Lastly, which candidate would most need to fall on his face in order for Gingrich to enter the fray?

Rudy Giuliani. That's right. Many say otherwise, that Gingrich needs another right-wing darling to stumble. But the real fall guy is the former New York City mayor.

By making his "confession" to Dr. James Dobson last week, and by then receiving forgiveness from major religious-right leaders, Gingrich outflanked Giuliani and his own publicly unacknowledged transgressions. Gingrich has left Giuliani on an ethical island as the "two-woman" mayor.

With little or no grassroots organization in most states, Giuliani looks to be the '08 version of Howard Dean: leading in the polls, but with a campaign built on a foundation of sand.

Yes, Gingrich -- despite all of his protestations and disclaimers -- is in this race. The question is, will he have waited too long to reclaim his supporters?

And if he protests this column, he doth, indeed, "protest too much."

[dan1davis]

I've followed Newt for a long time and I find it hard to imagine that he would be posturing for a position in a lesser politician's administration just to get back into politics. Before 9/11 Rudy was the example we all used to show the difference between "Republican" and "Conservative Republican" while Newt was the man who hung the cojones on the bull. Rudy and Newt don't belong in the same political universe. A northeastern milquetoast Republican and a fire breathing Bible-belt conservative.

Were it not for Gingrich and a few others, I wonder if Reagan's legacy would have begun to be realized. Despite the love we had for Reagan, it took the Gingrich House to make put some of the man's more conservative views on government into the physical, rather than metaphysical, realm.

The choice between Giuliani and Gingrich is apples and oranges. Personally, I think that Newt is simply praising Giuliani to show that politics doesn't have to be a bloodbath every second of every day. Sort of like when he praises Hillary. If Newt runs, he will eviscerate Rudy as a conservative pretender, and you know what? He will be right.

[CutePuppy]

"ton of baggage hanging on him "...

More in media mythology than reality :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1776611/posts?page=54#54

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1792932/posts?page=7#7

... "along with pure animosity for him from the MSM and others."

That's what makes him uniquely qualified to be a candidate. One, how do you like the candidates al-Media likes and wants us to like, so far? Two, like political jiu-jitsu, it can be turned against them by Newt (and much classier and subtler than Bill Clinton tried to do on Mike Wallace interview) - media will look shrill and smug and entirely one-sided during the campaign and will turn off a lot of their less-liberal "constituents". Especially if they keep hitting on Newt's marital life, they will look like hypocrites that they are when they defended Clinton before. Newt can just acknowledge having had problems, assure them that he will not have chase women / interns while serving in White House, and then start talking about "the issues that are important to all Americans".

[geezerwheezer]

Your treatise is flawed because you forget that 52% of the voters are women, and Newt ain't gonna be very popular with the under 35 yr. old females when the fur starts flying. Talk about a radical backlash, he won't be able to duck all of the bogus charges that will be hurled at him, and he is already tarnished as a leader anyway. He bailed out as speaker because he knew his fellow repubs wouldn't support him anymore, so he quit. That isn't the mark of a great leader in anyone's book, and shows his weakness at leadership. Stay and fight, don't run for cover as Newt did.