Posted on 02/11/2007 8:30:13 AM PST by areafiftyone
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WASHINGTON A year ago, top Republicans had two questions about former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and his presidential prospects.
Where is he?
And how can he win the nomination of a party filled with conservative Christians?
But after a slow start, Giuliani has begun campaigning, and it's now clear where he is: at the top of the polls.
And because of shifts in the political winds, more political pros are saying he could end up being the GOP candidate.
"If Giuliani wins in New Hampshire, I think he wins the nomination," said Andy Smith, a pollster at the University of New Hampshire who recently conducted a poll showing "America's mayor" in a statistical tie for the lead in the state that hosts the first primary.
Giuliani is ahead in other key states like Iowa, California and New Jersey, and political pundits say it's not just because of the name recognition he won for his leadership of New York City after 9/11.
It's because several things have happened, by design and chance, that benefit Giuliani.
After sitting out the earliest part of the presidential politicking, Giuliani campaigned hard for Republican candidates last fall and it did him some good.
"The mayor was down here many times during the campaign," said Katon Dawson, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. "And I would say the mayor is very popular in South Carolina right now."
Similarly, Giuliani seems to have helped himself with his first campaign appearance in New Hampshire two weeks ago. Smith's poll, taken just after Giuliani's visit, showed the mayor with 27 percent, a point behind Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who won New Hampshire's GOP primary in 2000.
"Giuliani is in an excellent position given that he's never run for office outside his own state before," Smith said.
He's in a strong position elsewhere, in part because two well-known would-be candidates with strong ties to the Christian right - former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and former Sen. George Allen, R-Va. imploded politically last year.
That leaves the Christian right without an obvious choice among the candidates pundits see as the major players: Giuliani, McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Giuliani's support of abortion rights and gay rights would seem to make him anathema to Christian conservatives but so might McCain's legendary comment that evangelical leaders are "agents of intolerance," and Romney's past support of gay rights.
Facing that political landscape, some Republicans are thinking differently in the key first-caucus state of Iowa, said Steffen Schmidt, a political scientist at Iowa State University. He said he recently met with a key player in the state GOP, which has long been dominated by the Christian right, only to hear positive comments about Giuliani.
"He's a war hero in that he was the mayor of the entire country after 9/11, and that gives him a superstar status," Schmidt said. "He's also attractive because people think he was a pretty good mayor and would be a pretty good manager. And that means they're more willing to overlook all the stains - the divorces, the fact that he's pro-gay rights."
While a lesser-known candidate like Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could become the social conservatives' candidate of choice, their lack of name recognition may doom their candidacies in what's likely to be a very short race to the nomination.
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are expected to be held in January 2008, and will be quickly followed by the South Carolina primary on Feb. 2.
Then comes what's shaping up as a very early Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when California, Florida, New Jersey and Illinois are likely to hold their primaries. That bodes well for Giuliani because those states have disproportionate numbers of moderate Republicans, Schmidt said.
Fred Siegel, author of "Prince of the City," a flattering biography of the former mayor, agreed.
"Half the delegates will be selected before Feb. 8, and that gives someone with enormous name recognition a huge edge," Siegel said.
Then again, many inside-the-beltway pundits say Giuliani's liberal stances on social issues will doom him with the GOP base. And both Dawson and Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, indicated Giuliani still has something to prove to social conservatives.
"There is still a lot of concern" about Giuliani's past stances, Scheffler said.
Nevertheless, Giuliani's supporters stress that the mayor would be the party's strongest candidate in the November election.
Portraying himself as a successful mayor who made government work and who could be trusted to do the same in Washington and overseas Giuliani appears to be trying to move beyond the legacy of the unpopular Republican incumbent, President Bush.
And while some polls show Democratic candidates such as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton beating most Republicans at this point, Giuliani's supporters think he is so popular that he could even compete in strongly Democratic states like New York, New Jersey and California.
"He's a strong leader, a no-nonsense leader," said Buffalo businessman Anthony Gioia, one of Giuliani's top local supporters. "But what also makes him compelling is his electability. If he's the nominee, we get to play in the Democrats' sandbox."
News Washington Bureau assistant Andrew Vanacore contributed to this report.
e-mail: jzremski@buffnews.com
Hard to prove your side when the evidence is destroyed and it is against policy for me to post a cached copy.
Your opinion is duly noted.
They constantly use the term RINO, well, think about it. They are extremely tough and noble critters and demand respect. I would not want to have one charge me. They are not easily stopped once they make up their minds they want to take you out!
So, let them use the term. It fits quite well but not in the way they think.
Rudy's an East Coast lib whose words and deeds are out there for all to see. He can't pretend now that he didn't say the things he has, didn't vote the way he did and drive for the legislation that he has.
Rudy's a statist. Doens't matter worth a damn whether he's got an 'R' or a 'D' after his name.
I give him an 'F'
Agreed.
And the first banned comment being among the top ten (number 5, actually).
"Wow, you sure are willing to support this guy blindly. We're talking about the kind of justices he would appoint. I very logically brought up the point that he is likely to appoint judges like the ones he already HAS appointed. You're taking his word as a politician OVER his deeds.--TeenagedConservative
If you had done your research, (thank you PhiKapMom, nopardons) you would have discovered that Giuliani's hands were tied.
Since 1978, merit selection has been used to select judges of New York Citys criminal and family courts and to fill mid-term vacancies on the citys civil court.
Established by executive order, the mayors advisory committee on the judiciary evaluates applicants and nominates highly qualified candidates. The mayor may not appoint a judge who has not been nominated by the committee. All based on merit selection and all come from an advisory committee which means in liberal NY the chances of finding a conservative judge based on merit would be nil to non-existent.
Conversely, consider Giuliani's statement made at a recent visit with the South Carolina GOP Executive Committee when an audience member pressed him for his position on judges:
'On the Federal judiciary I would want judges who are strict constructionists because I am. I'm a lawyer. I've argued cases in the Supreme Court. I've argued cases in the Court of Appeals in different parts of the country. I have a very, very strong view that for this country to work, for our freedoms to be protected, judges have to interpret not invent the Constitution. Otherwise you end up, when judges invent the constitution, with your liberties being hurt. Because legislatures get to make those decisions and the legislature in South Carolina might make that decision one way and the legislature in California a different one. And that's part of our freedom and when that's taken away from you that's terrible.'
"I heard no mention of the loss of personal freedom... Apparently this was not much of a sacrifice. They couldn't have cared less."
William Shirer, "Hitler and the Third Reich: First Impressions", from The Nightmare Years: 1930-1940 (Little, Brown, and Co., 1984)
I have always thought that FR polls were fair, but this current "push poll" tells me all I need to know. Also I'm glad this isn't 1907 when many in the US thought Italians were of a separate race.
I think it was Mark Levin, in his book on the Supreme Court, who said that the make-up of the courts is the most significant "social issue" of this early century. On that, Rudy is solid.
Solidly to the left.
The current poll on FR is a little bit goofy (I voted "Too dumb to vote"), but it's hardly a Giuliani "push poll". It's not describing Giuliani vs Hillary, at least how he's been portrayed at this forum by many people.
The only hope we have is to find a strong candidate that has the gonads to stand up to Liberals and the MSM (one in the same). Political correctness, sucking up to Liberals, and not staying true to our heritage is going to push us down the toilet bowl.
Comparing him to Hitler? (LOL!)
Do you have any other delusional tendencies we need to know about?
Well that's why I prefer Rudy. He's been standing up to the MSM since he was mayor. He's not afraid of them. But that being said - whomever wins the nomination gets my vote.
I am very well aware of his postions. How much do you know about gun control and police unions.
Many voted dem in 2006...as long as the dem was a "social conservative".
The smart pols in the GOP have figured this out...as have the samrt dems. The "social conservative" vote will be split amongst them, in varying quantities, for the forseeable future.
What did poster # 5 say that got his/her post deleted?
Of course we on FR are not representative. We are more informed than the average American.
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