Posted on 01/11/2007 9:39:45 AM PST by Trueblackman
After many weeks of intense thought on the events taking place in Horn of Africa, I can say I have come to a logical conclusion "That Osama Bin-Laden is in fact dead and has been since last summer." and here are some reasons.
One would think with the fall of Mogadishu that Bin Laden personally would have addressed the fall of the city to Somali transitional government forces, backed by Ethiopian troops with intelligence from the United States and Kenya.
Bin-Laden himself once claimed in a interview that Mogadishu was akin to holy ground for Al-Qaeda and it was the withdrawal of U.S. Forces in 1993 that inspired him to fund and have his followers carry out large scale attacks such as the embassy bombings in Africa, the U.S.S. Cole and 9-11. Now with that said why would Bin Laden not address the fact that the city which gave him the personal inspiration to carry out those attacks against the United States and our allies would be allowed to fall to a mostly Christian Force? The most logical conclusion would be that Bin Laden would have rushed a message out praising his Islamic Warriors in their defense of his Al-Qaeda's holy ground, now with this said if Bin Laden was indeed alive then he would not have left these tasks to his Number 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri.
When American Forces killed former head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Bin Laden personally addressed his death via audio tape and praised his efforts in Iraq, but even those who had the chance to listen to the tape sad that Bin-Laden sounded very weak and frail.
I am also lead to believe that Al-Qaeda's failed attempt to blow up several Trans-Atlantic Flights over the United States was suppose to have been Bin-Laden's departing shot at the world, but in reality the plot was rushed, not well planned, those involved were reportedly seemed at odds with each other and the plot in the end was easily exposed by joint intelligence officials.
Since the failed plot Al-Qaeda has seemed to have fallen out of favor in places such as Iraq and Somalia, Bin Laden himself once promised that 9-11 was only the tip of the iceberg, but Al-Qaeda has been easily foiled at every turn. Which leads me to believe that Bin-Laden has not been in operational control of the group for years, I believe that Bin Laden's number two does in fact control Al-Qaeda, but does not have the support and leadership to run the group and his Bin-Laden's lack of message in the fall of Mogadishu gives credit to the report that he did indeed die last year.
I would put the time frame of his death around late July or early September.
Interesting speculation, Kevin. It rings true enough...
I tend to agree with you. He would have said something by now about Somalia.
no, he's not dead. no way that information could be contained for this long, hidden. he's in pakistan.
pong
E's just pinin' for the fjords.
Another reason I believe bin Laden is dead is because he didn't congratulate Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats on their election wins.
Somalia just fell....it will take 3 to 6 weeks for them to get a tape out of the hinderlands of Pakistan. Means nothing that we haven't heard from him or Zawahiri yet.
He would have also said something about the elections 2 months ago. But only his partner in crime did.
.
It's a good analysis - especially the point about how psychologically important Mogadishu is to Al-Qaeda ideology.
Personally, I think Bin Laden is with Elvis in a secret room at Graceland. :)
Sorry...I think I've heard that Bin Laden wsa dead at least a million times since 2001....so I'm a bit not trusting.
There was the Kerry campaign tape from 2004.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.