Posted on 11/26/2006 10:29:27 AM PST by nuconvert
Win would push Chávez closer to socialist dream
The Dec. 3 vote in Venezuela is a choice between two systems, and a test of the popularity of Hugo Chávez's `socialism for the 21st century.'
BY STEVEN DUDLEY
In President Hugo Chávez's Venezuela, there are signs of a maturing revolution: At a recent rally, young supporters who have spent a good part of their youth with Chávez in power sang with the elder Chavistas revolutionary favorites like Uh Ah, Chávez no se va -- the ''Chávez will not go'' jingle popularized during his defeat of a recall referendum in 2004.
The festivities were a reminder of Chávez's incredible staying power and cross-generational reach. He has been president since 1999, and the latest poll announced Thursday showed him with a 59-27 lead in his bid to win reelection on Dec. 3.
His vast margins in the polls have sharpened opposition concerns about the direction in which an even more powerful Chávez will take the country. But they have delighted his supporters.
Already, an entire generation of young followers have felt the effect of his social programs and fiery anti-U.S. rhetoric and have become accustomed to him exerting his will over all phases of the country's government in order to further his quixotic ``socialism for the 21st century.''
With Venezuela's withered domestic opposition movement and Chávez's increasingly tight grip on power, some say the stakes in this election could not be higher: A resounding Chávez victory could give the president the six years he needs to turn Venezuela into something that more closely resembles Cuba -- if not politically, then at least economically.
''This isn't an election between two candidates,'' said Alberto Garrido, the longtime Chávez watcher and author of several books on the president.
``This is a choice between two systems.''
How Chávez intends to turn this longtime capitalist nation more toward his vision of a state-centered government is not yet clear because what has happened in Venezuela has been unprecedented.
SOURCE OF UPHEAVAL
A former army lieutenant colonel who took part in an attempted coup in 1992 before winning the presidency in 1998, Chávez is arguably causing the biggest political and economic upheaval in the western hemisphere in the past 25 years.
His controversial policies and blistering rhetoric have divided this nation of 26 million people and separated Venezuela from some of its long-standing allies, most notably the United States, the top importer of Venezuelan oil and a longtime military ally of this country.
Up until now, Chávez's revolution has been a strange blend of socialism, cronyism and dogmatism fueled by oil revenue. Along the way he has sought the advice of heads of state like Muammar al-Gaddafi and Fidel Castro, insulted several major western leaders and made more big-money promises than Donald Trump.
The Bush administration is Chávez's main punching bag. He frequently refers to the U.S. president as the ''devil,'' supports U.S. enemies such as Iran in its efforts to harness nuclear energy and attacks U.S. allies like Israel.
He also says Washington supported the failed coup against him in 2002 and is planning an invasion. Chávez has used this argument to justify his massive weapons purchases from Russia in recent months that include 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles, more than 30 helicopters and several fighter planes. He has changed the country's military doctrine to prepare for an invasion and is training civilians to fight off the gringo soldiers.
Part of this paranoia -- or savvy political strategy to capitalize on nationalist sentiments -- may come from Chávez's increasing ties to Cuba. The impoverished island gets an estimated $2 billion in subsidies per year in year in goods and services from Venezuela, only a small part of which is repaid by Cuban medical personnel working in poor neighborhoods here and eye surgeries that Venezuelans and others receive in Cuba.
Cuba also is the home to Chávez's region-wide trade initiative with countries that haven't yet signed free trade pacts with the United States.
In addition, he is giving away crude at discount prices in the Caribbean and Central America, and heating oil in the United States; financing refinery upgrades in Jamaica and Uruguay; and buying government-issued bonds in Argentina and Ecuador.
INFLUENCE ABROAD
Chávez's anti-U.S. position has given him some political currency abroad. From Patagonia to Alaska, he is the most well-known Latin American president since Castro and seems to be positioning himself to take over Castro's leadership of anti-U.S. sentiment after the 80-year-old Cuban leader dies.
But his bravado and undiplomatic rhetoric does not always win him friends. He appeared to overstep his bounds recently when he vilified Bush in a U.N. speech suggesting that the podium smelled of sulfur after the U.S. president's speech. The move provoked laughter and applause, but may have cost his country a seat on the U.N. Security Council.
Still, for all his histrionics abroad, Chávez's political foundation remains his social programs at home.
Riding the wave of high oil prices, he has poured billions of dollars toward health and education programs, as well as food subsidies. He's started universities and high schools and refurbished military schools that have a new generation singing his praises.
''I've seen radical changes,'' Rafael Villegas, a 19-year old cadet at a naval academy, said during the political rally. ``He's transformed our lives.''
Simultaneously, Chávez has won supporters with his attacks on the private sector. His administration has taken over what it deems as idle lands and property to distribute them to everyone from landless peasants to taxi drivers. It has passed legislation for higher royalties and taxes from multinational oil and mining companies. From ExxonMobil to Polar, Venezuela's largest food and beverage company, no one seems safe.
Unless, of course, you're a Chavista. Then, opportunities abound.
From powdered milk and flour producers who sell to the subsidized supermarkets to the large shipping companies building tankers for the state oil company, PDVSA, a new rich class has emerged under Chávez. And they are purchasing as fast as they are making money: 300,000 cars sold last year, skyrocketing sales of high-class jewelry, 18-year-old whiskey and expensive art.
Chávez's opponent in this election for a six-year term, Manuel Rosales, has risen steadily in the polls and begun to draw massive anti-Chávez crowds by highlighting the corruption at home and the government's lavish spending abroad.
BESET WITH PROBLEMS
Despite Chávez's billions toward social programs, poverty, joblessness and problems with the healthcare system continue to dog Venezuela. Drug trafficking is on the rise, and graft has almost turned into a sport. Transparency International, a European watchdog group, said this month that Venezuela is the second most-corrupt nation in this hemisphere, behind Haiti. Crime is consistently ranked as one of Venezuelans' top concerns.
It's also not clear whether Chávez's social programs will lead to any long-term transformation of Venezuela. Infrastructure, for instance, has not improved with the oil windfall -- a bridge connecting the country's main airport and the capital collapsed recently. Production at PDVSA is falling, and its refineries are having multiple problems.
Still, most polls show Chávez leading Rosales by a healthy margin. And the Chávez campaign does not seem too concerned by its opponent's recent surge: It remains centered on Chávez's vow to win 10 million of 14 million registered voters -- enough to justify whatever comes next in this revolution.
''It's not about winning, it's about how we win,'' Chávez told the young crowd gathered on the outskirts of Caracas.
``We're going to grind them into dust.''
If that happens, Chávez appears poised to take even more steps to strengthen his already tight grip on power. What that would mean remains unclear, however. He already controls the courts, the attorney general's office and the National Electoral Council. Last year, the opposition boycotted the legislative elections because of complaints of a stacked deck, giving Chávez allies all 167 seats.
Chávez says he will use this mandate to change the constitution so that he can govern until at least 2021 (the calculation he uses to arrive at this date is not clear). His next steps, analysts say, could be to create a single governing party, eliminating the 10 or so others that currently work closely with his so-called Bolivarian Movement.
''They are creating the conditions for the Sovietization of the revolution,'' said Douglas Bravo, a former leftist guerrilla who worked with Chávez in the early days before breaking off relations. ``There will be only one voice.''
Bravo says a cleansing process inside the Chavista ranks already has begun. He points to a recent video, released to the media by the opposition campaign earlier this month that shows the president of PDVSA and minister of oil, Rafael Ramírez, chastising his employees for their lack of revolutionary fervor.
''It bothers me, and I'm sure it bothers you as well, when we find people who are neither this nor that . . . people who say that here we're in a process, that we need to open this thing up,'' Ramírez tells the audience. ``No, sir. Here, no one can forget that we're in the middle of a revolution.''
''The position of Chávez is clear: Those who aren't with him are gone,'' said Américo Martín, a political analyst who consults with the opposition.
Analysts also expect Chávez to strengthen laws squelching opposition media outlets and making it harder for nongovernmental groups to criticize the government. They say Chávez likely also will expand education projects that include the creation of more high schools and universities he says will sing his revolution's praises.
But most of the changes they expect will be in the economic realm: more state control over natural resources; stronger bonds with countries like Iran; and a harder push to consolidate his Cuba-based regional trade bloc.
UNCHARTED WATERS
Still, it's not clear how far Chávez will be able to push his revolution forward, no matter how many votes he obtains on Dec. 3.
Venezuela, as many analysts point out, is not Cuba. The opposition has regained its footing in this election. Chávez's neighbors also seem increasingly wary of his antics on the world stage, publicly distancing themselves from the unpredictable leader.
And then there's a question of just how militant Chávez's own followers are. Their festive chants apparently can only hold them so long.
At the rally with the young Chavistas, the president spent much of his 2 ½ hour speech talking about ideological conviction.
But by the end, more than half of the audience had left the stadium.
Is there any doubt?
What's the Spanish word for "Atlas Shrugged"?
Well it seems the Miami Herald just cast their ballot for Chavez.
The Bennies deserve him.
Yup. Saw that on aculeus' thread.
Thanks
Thanks for the pics.
I see you were distracted there for a few mins.
One does indeed become distracted :)
Are there any 'realistic' poll numbers anywhere?
He's already dictator-for-life. Who cares if he stages an "election"? Stalin did the same thing.
Very good point. I know what you mean by 'realistic' poll data. I shall check on that and if the source and numbers look kosher I shall post them here.
We should have dealt with this tin-horn dictator when we had the chance...
Ed
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