Posted on 11/20/2006 9:14:38 AM PST by Mr. Silverback
Most post-election analyses are political Rorschach tests where the pundit looks at a tiny sample of information and tells you a lot more about his or her worldview than about what really happened, like a football fan guessing why his team lost a game he didn’t watch.
Still, from what we do know, we can come to two Rorshach-free conclusions. First, the electorate didn’t reject conservatism, only Republicanism. Most of the winners ran as conservative Democrats. Second, as Shirley Bassey would sing, “it’s all just a little bit of history repeating itself.”
Take a look at 1974 and 1976. It is true that 1974 was the year Watergate came to a head, and it was the sixth year of the Nixon presidency, but the Democratic sweep that year surprised everyone. They gained 49 house seats and 4 Senate seats, giving them a two thirds majority in the House and a 61-38 majority in the Senate. Why?
Ronald Reagan, speaking at the annual CPAC conference the next March, presented his answer. “Few, if any, Democratic Party candidates in the last election ran as liberals,” he said. “Listening to them I had the eerie feeling we were hearing reruns of Goldwater speeches. I even thought I heard a few of my own. Bureaucracy was assailed and fiscal responsibility hailed. …we must not forget that they molded their campaigning to fit what even they recognized was the mood of the majority.”
Reagan cited a number of polls which showed that more and more Americans were identifying themselves as conservatives. Yet the Republican president had expanded social spending dramatically, and the leaders of his party in Congress were glad to oblige him. Presented with a corrupt president and a spendthrift Congress, most of the Democrat “Watergate Babies” had run to the right of the GOP and their own party.
In 1976 the second part of the cycle played out. Though he ran as a moderate, almost every other quality Jimmy Carter had—plain-spoken Southerner, born again Christian, former nuclear submarine officer, etc.—pointed toward a traditional conservative outlook. Carter had even returned the death penalty to Georgia. Yet I hardly have to recount the disaster that was the Carter presidency, and as a result Reagan rolled into office.
The cycle repeated again in 1992. George H. W. Bush had violated his “no new taxes pledge” and was certainly no Reagan. He was seen as a tax and spend president out of touch with voters, and was defeated by a “New Democrat” promising cuts in taxes and budgets. But when Clinton got into office, he spent more than ever, raised taxes on the middle class and even on Social Security recipients, and tried to implement socialized medicine. So the public voted against Clinton the only way they could: they voted for conservative Republicans running on the “Contract With America.” in the 1994 midterm election. They gained 54 seats and the House was in GOP hands for the first time in 40 years.
Both times the GOP spent too much, seemed more concerned with “growth” than principle, lost touch with the mood of the nation and had a president who was too liberal. These conditions are present again, and so it seems we’re at the beginning of another cycle. There’s no doubt the war and the “six year itch” hurt them, but lack of principle made it possible for the Blue Dog Democrats to run against them from the right, claiming to be what the Republicans should be.
In 1975, Reagan said, “I don‘t know about you,” he said, “but I am impatient with those Republicans who after the last election rushed into print saying, ‘We must broaden the base of our party’—when what they meant was to fuzz up and blur even more the differences between ourselves and our opponents.” He believed that the Big Tent philosophy was a big loser, and disingenuous as well. “Who has ever been barred from participating?” he asked.
He went on: “Our people look for a cause to believe in. Is it a third party we need, or is it a new and revitalized second party, raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand on all of the issues troubling the people?”
Like Carter and Clinton, the Pelosi Democrats will be unable to hide their true colors for long. They may be smart enough to realize that the public won’t tolerate impeachment or a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, but over the next two years the Blue Dogs will likely bend to Pelosi’s will and drop their supposed principles like a hot rock. If so, the voters will return a new generation of Reagan conservatives to power, but only if they’re carrying honesty in their hearts, and marching under a banner of bold colors.
Time to cue Shirley:
The word is about, there's something evolving,
Whatever may come, the world keeps revolving
They say the next big thing is here,
That the revolution's near,
But to me it seems quite clear
That it's all just a little bit of history repeating itself
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In 1975, Reagan said, “I don‘t know about you,” he said, “but I am impatient with those Republicans who after the last election rushed into print saying, ‘We must broaden the base of our party’—when what they meant was to fuzz up and blur even more the differences between ourselves and our opponents.” He believed that the Big Tent philosophy was a big loser, and disingenuous as well. “Who has ever been barred from participating?” he asked.One other thing about "big tents" ... the majority of people end up in the proverbial bleachers watching the clowns on center stage do their thing.
Nice Shirley Bassie reference! Check out the Propellerheads version of this on DecksAndDrumsAndRocknRoll...
You're added!
Yep, that's the one!
Nice column, Mr. S. Let's make this a really short cycle.
Thanks babe. From your lips to God's ear.
Bump for a later read.
I liked your article. Nice narrative style.
Thanks!
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