Some Kind of Change in Mood?

The Corner at National Review ^ | November 5, 2006 | Kathryn Jean Lopez

[Oakleaf]

N.B. See the bolded comment, which I have pulled up from the body of the text. This is what "Obi-Wan Kenobi" told Jim Gerhaghty he was looking for as a good sign that our fortunes were improving. It is far from over but the closer we get to the end-game the better we are looking (e.g. see poll on which party do you trust on Iraq, our best numbers in two years).

Generic Congressional candidate poll

Among likely voters, this poll has tightened from a dem advantage among likely voters of 14 points (55-41) down to six points (51-45)—an eight-point swing over the past two weeks—the tightest margin listed for this year.

[End comments by Oakleaf; article begins below; bolded emphasis supplied.]

A Beltway Guy and close watcher of these things, highlights:

The reported dem “tidal wave” seems to have abated over the last two weeks according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released today. The numbers have improved for Republicans across the board. Support for Iraq is up as well. In particular, there was an eight-point increase in the generic Congressional candidate, which party do you trust on Iraq, and was the war in Iraq worth it questions. In other words, despite the blanket media coverage of violence in Iraq over the past two weeks, support for the effort there actually grew—and with it, support for Republicans. Right track/wrong track and values questions show a similar favorable increase for Republicans.

For example, since the last poll two weeks ago (10/22/06):

Presidential approval ratings

Among registered voters, the President’s favorables rose to 43 (up from 40).

Generic Congressional candidate poll

Among likely voters, this poll has tightened from a dem advantage among likely voters of 14 points (55-41) down to six points (51-45)—an eight-point swing over the past two weeks—the tightest margin listed for this year.

Right track/wrong track

This has also shown significant improvement. Two weeks ago, the numbers were 32-66; this week they improved to 39-59. Still not great, but the deficit between the two shrunk from 34 down to 20.

Which party do you trust to do a better job of handling Iraq?

This number is now tied at 42. Republicans have led only once in this poll in the last two years; dems led by 8 points (48-40) in the last poll, another eight-point swing mirroring the increase in support in the generic poll.

Which party better represents your values?

This question is another where the dem lead has contracted. Dems are currently favored at 48-44. This four-point margin is down significantly from their 16-point lead (53-37) in early October.

Do you think the Democrats are or are not offering the country a clear direction that's different from the Republicans?

The yes-no margin tightened here as well. This went from 52-44 down to 49-47. In other words, only a minority now believe that the dems are offering a “clear direction” on Iraq.

Was the war in Iraq worth fighting?

This number has shown significant improvement over the past two weeks, despite considerable violence (and its attendant media coverage). The worth it/not worth it numbers are at 44-53 (-9), but up from 40/57 (-17) among registered voters. This is yet another eight-point swing. And it has improved significantly from a month ago (again, despite the increase in violence during that period) from 35-63 (-28!).

Did the President tell the truth about Iraq

For the first time in 20 months, a majority (51-47) report the Bush administration “told the American people what it believed to be true” in making the case for war with Iraq. This ratio improved from 46-52 (-6) in May.

Congressional approval ratings

Though still not great, favorables improved from 31 to 36 over the past two weeks.

GOTV calls

More people were contacted on behalf of Republican candidates (29 percent) than dems (20 percent). Forty one percent had heard from both.

(Methodology: This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults. Full results are available here .)

[JLS]

With the Saddam verdict bump to come.

[ConservativeMan55]

bttt

[EternalVigilance]

What we're seeing has little to do with reality.

It mainly has to do with the Democrat Media doing what they always do: trying to preserve some shred of credibility when the final election numbers bear no resemblence to the lies they've been telling for months.

[ohioWfan]

Does this include the Kerry fiasco? (i.e who the Dems REALLY are)

[RandallFlagg]

I think it has something to do with the fact that some of the left are asking themselves this: "What are we gonna do if we lose?"

We on the right have a plan for this. They do not. And they're starting to panic.

[11th_VA]

Here's the latest headline from Bloomberg:

"Democrats Have Narrower Lead as Election Nears, Poll Finds

By Nadine Elsibai

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The contest for control of Congress has tightened in the days leading up to the Nov. 7 vote with Democrats holding a 51 percent to 45 percent edge among likely voters, down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed.

And how about this weather update from NOAA:

"LATE ELECTION DAY TUESDAY IS SLIDING DOWNHILL FOR THE MID ATLANTIC UNLESS YOU ARE A FAN OF A CHILLY ATLANTIC RAIN."

[moose2004]

Excellent!

[tdewey10]

I don't know. It could be folks who are pissed off at Republican spending coming to grips with the fact that no matter what you think of the current guys in control of Congress a Democrat-controlled Congress with Pelosi as speaker would be infinitely worse.

[RasterMaster]

The DUmbasses in the lame-stream, has-been, drive-by dinosaur DNC media have to cover Saddam's sentencing today and tomorrow.

He's already been sentenced to DEATH, any further trials are moot and we are again reminded of why our troops are in Iraq - depose Saddam (or REGIME CHANGE as it was referred to when Clinton adopted it as policy, but did nothing more than lip service). DUmocrats wanted the election to be about Iraq, and so it is.

1. Jean-Fraud Kerry infers that soldiers in Iraq are dumb.

2. Soldiers respond

3. NYT admits Saddam had nuke program.

4. Families of fallen visit Iraq (no quagmire)

5. Saddam sentenced (death by hanging)

News cycle seems to be working for GOP advantage thus far. DUmocrats yesterday counter with "Rusmsfeld must resign" and "recruiters caugh lying" stories. Wow. That's new....NOT!

In addition to Saddam sentencing, Fox will be running OBSESSION - THE MOVIE, and we get to see the face of the enemy again. Yesterday, Fox is also showed "waterboarding" (Steve Harrigan, a Fox reporter volunteered to show how it is done).

DUmocrats come out of hiding, but have NOTHING to give anyone a reason to trust them with power. They've even invited BJ and Al to speak for them - kiss of death.

I don't know what Monday brings, but I've got a good idea about the day after.

[Rockingham]

Three things seem to be making a positive difference: (1) the rally of the base phenomenon in which many disaffected partisans return to the fold; (2) John Kerry's gift of a slam on the military; and (3) the last minute GOP campaign effort and GOTV mechanism.

The last deserves some elaboration. Effective GOTV does not just bring voters to the polls, but it also marginally shifts public opinion by energizing the base to drag wavering and undecided voters to vote for the cause. My guess is that we keep the Senate by a two or three margin and that the Democratic pickup in the House is 20 seats or less -- with a perhaps 1 in 5 change of keeping the House.

[Question Liberal Authority]

The Force is strong with this one.

[mewzilla]

Pelosi was campaigning in Philly. If the 'Rats were doing so hot, they wouldn't need to be preaching to the converted.

[Thumper1960]

The GOP will retain both houses this time. Barely. There are intangibles this cycle that seem to give that impression weight. Yeah, I feel it in my bones.

[CT102ndInfSister]

I completely agree. What we have here is the left getting ready for their excuses. This way, when they lose, they can blame the "last minute shift" when we know that the support for the Republicans was there all along. They were just suppressing it in their "polling data" to scare the base.

When they lose on Tuesday they will blame Kerry and his short, stupid comment. They will not have the guts to blame their agenda which will be the REAL reason for their loss. Kerry will be a lost senator, an object of scorn.

I, for one, cannot wait!

[RandallFlagg]

Need some good bumperstickers to send them on their way? Click on my name and check out the posts I've put up in the last 36 hours.

[woodb01]

Justice Stevens is likely retiring before the end of the year.  GET THE VOTERS TO THE POLLS!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1732428/posts

ONLY YOU CAN ENSURE THAT THE TERRORISTS DO NOT CLAIM VICTORY WITH A DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED CONGRESS!! 

CLICK THE IMAGE ABOVE, OR CLICK HERE AND SPEND 15 TO 30 MINUTES MAKING A FEW PHONE CALLS!  THAT'S ALL IT TAKES AND YOU CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE! 

STOP THE ISLAMIC TERRORISTS FROM CLAIMING VICTORY, AND STOP THE JUDICIAL TERRORISTS FROM CLAIMING VICTORY!!  THE FUTURE OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!

If YOU have your own site, or your own blog, BY ALL MEANS, POST THIS CALL TO ACTION!

For more info, visit http://www.nodnc.com

[CT102ndInfSister]

Ok - gonna check them out now!

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Polls all lag real-time sentiment.

In this poster's opinion, the election could surprize on the Republican side, big time.

My hypothesis goes like this:

Foley was Dems' nuclear bomb. He was an election destroying warhead as everyone saw. Except on the way to the wipe-out, something happened. Something called Bill Clinton.

Remember the huge embarrassment Clinton caused when he went psychotic on Chris Wallace, and acted like a spoiled brat about ABC's "Path to 9-11". Well, as we all know the world of Democrats revolves around one person - Bill Clinton.

After he humiliated himself he obviously demanded the Foley warhead be deployed early. He needed a "wag the dog", and he got one. It worked, and he promptly dropped off the radar.

Republicans were hugely impacted. Many almost quit. It was a bad time, and almost worked. It certainly impacted public opinion polls. For a week or two, sentiment swung massively away from Republicans. Just on Foley. Polls, which take several days to structure, several more to complete, then the remainder of a week or more to distribute and publish - showed a huge Dem lead.

Then Jon Carrey stepped up, and slow-boated himself.

There was a stock market record, good economic news, and suddenly Foley was forgotten. He's yesterday's news, and frankly nobody even cares about him anymore.

Now, we're looking at polls, shifting strongly back toward the GOP.

Remember, polls LAG sentiment. If the polls are swinging now, it means sentiment actually began swinging back a week ago. And could still be swinging, with some momentum.

It is very important for all Republicans DO NOT GIVE UP.

This election could be a whole lot better, than the media and polls are portraying.

Remember - the media is almost always spinning for Democrats.

Don't believe them. Vote.

[ClaireSolt]

It seems they blame blacks when they lose.