Democrat Jerry McNerney, who gathered with protesters during Bush's visit, seems to be benefitting from discontent over Bush's policies, according to independent observers.
Posted on 10/30/2006 8:13:50 AM PST by SmithL
STOCKTON-Richard Pombo, clad in a beige polo shirt and jeans, is leaning back in a folding chair, his trademark ostrich-skin boots under a table. He's bantering with a reporter and an aide, and appears at peace. But he really isn't.
Pombo, a seven-term Republican congressman, is in the tightest race he has seen in more than a decade to hold on to his once-safe seat -- and he knows it.
Despite the comments of his Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, and the accumulated evidence of national voter surveys, Pombo thinks his troubles have nothing to do with Iraq, ethics or the general state of the nation.
"I don't think it has anything to do with that," Pombo explained in his cluttered campaign office here. "I think it has to do with the millions of dollars that they've spent trashing me."
In about a week, voters in this stalwart Republican district will either re-elect Pombo, a soft-spoken but ardently conservative Tracy rancher, or hand the seat to McNerney, an equally soft-spoken, liberal wind-turbine engineer from Pleasanton who has pounded Pombo on issues that Pombo insists are having no impact: Iraq and ethics.
McNerney lost two years ago by 60,000 votes, but independent observers believe something significant has shifted in this sprawling district to offer McNerney a healthy shot at defeating the incumbent this year.
"I'd call the race a tossup," said Matt Wetstein, a political scientist at San Joaquin Delta College in Stockton. "That seems to stem from national issues, not local ones."
Pombo was first elected in 1992 in a compact Central Valley district with a Democratic majority. But in 2000, the 11th District was redesigned to appear something like a frazzled sea horse, taking in Pombo's base in Tracy, as well as Manteca, Lodi, San Ramon andthe outskirts of Gilroy.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
Correction:
But in 2000, the 11th District was gerrymandered to appear something ...
Pombo's not going anywhere. With Schwarzenegger's strong showing he'll pull Pombo back into office as well. More wishful thinking by the MSM.
If I've read correctly, Pombo's district has changed because of the outflow of people from the SF Bay area into Pombo's district.
They're leaving to get away from the crime, taxes, bad schools, etc.
Unfortunately, they're bringing their Dem voting habits with them.
Pombo will likely win - but in the future, he'll have to keep a closer eye on the changes in his district.
Why is McNerney dressed like a pimp
Why is McNerney dressed like a pimp""
??? If it looks like a duck---walks like a duck--sounds like a duck---ETC......
Not in my experience. My Democratic friends seem happier staying in the Bay then I was. We lived in a cheap rent controlled East Palo Alto apartment before made the move out to Tracy (Central Valley, in the middle of district 11), when our first child was coming to be of school age.
Some of our liberals neighbors in Tracy decided to move back toward the Bay. I think partly because it is a cultural thing. Conservatives tend to like rural more, and liberals tend to like the urban more.
I would like to try living in an urban setting, but for the most part, I like rural areas. I think you are correct that libs tend to like the cities, while conservatives like the space of rural regions.
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