Posted on 10/12/2006 11:44:24 PM PDT by paratrooper82
Rasmussen Reports survey data shows that the story surrounding former Congressman Mark Foley has had little or no impact on partisan identification among the general public. Also, there is no data to support the expectation voiced by some that the Foley matter would reduce Evangelical Christian support for GOP candidates.
Over the seven days ending October 11, a period that is entirely within the post-Foley era, we interviewed 3,500 adults nationwide as part of the same tracking survey. The post-Foley results show Democrats at 37.5% and Republicans at 32.4%
It is important to keep this lack of change in perspective. The numbers were bad for the GOP before Foley—two years ago, in September 2004, Republicans and Democrats were virtually even in terms of partisan identification among the public. So, while things haven’t gotten worse over the past week, Republicans remain in a far weaker position than they were during Election 2004.
On the subject of Evangelical Christians, data from our last 15 statewide election surveys shows no clear trend. It is difficult to reach any firm conclusions because sample sizes are so small. For example, if Evangelical Christians represent 20% of the voters in a given state, that would mean only 100 respondents in a survey of 500 Likely Voters. With only 100 respondents the margin of sampling error is +/- 10 percentage points. Some states have even smaller percentages of Evangelical Christians.
However, if there was strong movement away from Republicans among Evangelicals, we might expect to see consistent movement across a range of 15 surveys. Instead, we found eight races in which the GOP candidates increased their support among Evangelicals and seven races in which the reported support declined. While far from conclusive, this suggests limited if any movement as a result of the Foley fall-out.
There may be other impacts from the Foley matter that have a negative impact on the GOP. It is possible, for example, that some unaffiliated voters will be more likely to consider a Democratic candidate than they were before. It is also possible, however, that the biggest impact has been to cost the Republicans valuable time. The Republicans were trailing in this election long before the Foley debacle and needed time to re-frame the debate and attempt a comeback. Foley cost them at least 10 days out of the final five weeks of the campaign.
Sorry but we did'nt need Rasputin to tell us
Mr. Foley's conduct had little impact upon the election.
However it is reassuring to get verification which
the idiot democrats need to hear.
It appears that democrat strategerists pundits have little knowlege
of what motivates conservatives.
Arrogance.
There they go spouting legitimate facts again. Democrats don't like dealing with facts.
I really don't understand how anyone could poll anyone on the matter when all the facts have not been presented. This is why it is so important not to believe what you read and hear and take it as face value. People need to start thinking for themselves.
The Foley Scandal has petered out.
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