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Protecting Kosovo at the Expense of New York
The National Interest On Line ^ | 26 September 2006 | Dimitri K. Simes

Posted on 09/26/2006 6:00:14 PM PDT by Doctor13

President Bill Clinton lost control of not only his temper during his interview with FOX News’ Chris Wallace, but also some facts about American national security.

The former President was right to criticize the Bush Administration for paying considerable attention to Iraq at the expense of Afghanistan and the war against al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other terrorist groups. Yet, Mr. Clinton was wrong to claim that he gave the struggle against al Qaeda and the Taliban sufficient priority during his own tenure.

One of Mr. Clinton’s most striking claims was only indirectly related to the war on terror, in his comment contrasting his years in the White House with his current role. Discussing the differences, he argued that as the president he could “simultaneously be trying to stop a genocide in Kosovo and, you know, make peace in the Middle East, pass a budget.” As far as the Middle East is concerned, Mr. Clinton indeed made a valiant, if unsuccessful, effort to reach a major Israeli-Palestinian accord. But that was about diplomacy, of course, not waging a war. And in dealing with the Taliban and al Qaeda, it is now clear that Kosovo proved to be a serious and perhaps a fatal detraction.

But first, Mr. Clinton should not try to rewrite history. There was no genocide in Kosovo at the time that his administration orchestrated the NATO attack against Yugoslavia. There was a rebellion by Kosovar Albanians, who were clearly inspired by NATO’s intervention in Bosnia against the Serbs. On the ground, the Kosovo Liberation Army regularly attacked Yugoslav police units and civilian officials. Unsurprisingly, the Milosevic regime responded with particular ruthlessness, often not hesitating in launching indiscriminate attacks on villages where KLA elements were hiding and had considerable support.

There was much to criticize in Milosevic’s answer to the Albanian uprising in Kosovo. But if it was genocide, then the Israelis in Lebanon—and, conceivably, U.S. troops in Iraq—could be vulnerable to similar charges. Yugoslav forces began their “ethnic cleansing” only after NATO decided to attack Yugoslavia. Thus, Mr. Clinton notwithstanding, there was no moral imperative for the United States to go to war when even some masterminds of the operation, including Richard Holbrooke, later acknowledged that it was a technical violation of international law. Kosovo was clearly a war of choice, and even more so than Iraq because Yugoslavia was not an enemy of the United States, had not been accused of harboring international terrorists, and was not suspected of developing weapons of mass destruction.

Yet, just like the Bush Administration’s preoccupation with Iraq, the Clinton Administration decision to focus on Yugoslavia had a heavy price for U.S. national security.

In his interview with Chris Wallace, Mr. Clinton excused his administration’s inability to mount major operations against al Qaeda and the Taliban by saying that the United States “needed basing rights in Uzbekistan, which we got after 9/11.” This implies that it would not have been possible to obtain access to bases before the September 11 attacks rallied global sympathy for the U.S. and opened new doors. But America had a real chance to get bases in Uzbekistan, or at least a military presence, much earlier.

As I have written in The National Interest, then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin proposed U.S.-Russian cooperation against the Taliban and al Qaeda in 1999. Frustrated with Moscow’s opposition to the NATO attack on Yugoslavia earlier that year—and, more generally, increasingly concerned by Russia’s newly assertive foreign policy—the Clinton Administration dismissed Mr. Putin’s overtures out of fear that cooperation with the Kremlin would legitimize Russia’s own presence in Central Asia. So, even after the al Qaeda bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998, the Clinton team’s focus was on containing Russia, not on working with Moscow against al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Even the 2000 al Qaeda bombing of the U.S.S. Cole did not persuade Mr. Clinton or his advisors that working with Russia in defeating the common threat was more important than curbing Russian influence in Central Asia. By that time, Russia was explicitly suggesting using its links to the Northern Alliance in order to defeat the Taliban. Later, President Putin acknowledged in an interview with Barbara Walters that he did not “know whether it would have been possible to prevent these strikes on the United States by the terrorists,” but added that “at that time, we certainly were counting on more active cooperation in combating international terrorism.” Both U.S. and Russian sources confirm that Russian approaches to the United States on joint counter-terrorism action in Afghanistan were largely ignored by the Clinton Administration.

Cooperation with China was also a casualty of the U.S.-led attack against Yugoslavia. Milosevic led the last self-proclaimed socialist regime in Europe and the Chinese leadership could not be expected to approve an attack on Yugoslavia any more than the United States would have been expected to endorse a Chinese attack on some democratic state, even one that had committed human rights violations in the course of a civil war. The accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade did not help either, since Beijing took the view that even if it was accidental, it occurred during a bombing campaign that was both bad policy and, because it had not been approved by the United Nations Security Council, in violation of international law. China was another key player in central and south Asia and had considerable influence over Afghanistan’s neighbor Pakistan.

If Russia and China were in America’s corner in 1999 and 2000, the U.S. could have taken action against the Taliban and either driven them from power or at least severed their links to al Qaeda. This would have made the September 11 attacks much more difficult to organize.

TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: admittedperjurer; alqaeda; balkans; clinton; clintonlegacy; kosovo; pathto911; taliban; usscole; wrongside; wrongtime; wrongwar

1 posted on 09/26/2006 6:00:16 PM PDT by Doctor13
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To: Doctor13; Bokababe

Balkans Bump

Clinton's misadventures in the Balkans cost American civilian lives.

2 posted on 09/26/2006 6:12:42 PM PDT by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: Doctor13

Protecting Kosovo for whom, and from whom? The facts the KLA had at minimum friendly relations with al Qaeda, was serving the interests of Muslim Albanians, most of whom were illegal immigrants from Albania to Yugoslavia, and until Clinton decided to feed Serbia to the Islamist crocodile in hope of being eaten last, had been on the State Dept.'s list of terrorist organizations, make all the more poigniant the misdirection of priorities and resources, the alienation of Russia, the Balkan Muslim links to later terror plots, to drug-running and to sex slavery, and all the other downsides of this misbegotten policy.

If NATO needs more troops for Afghanistan, it has a ready source. Just stop protecting the Balkan arm of Islamic fascism and let the Serbs deal with them while we deal with the Taliban.

3 posted on 09/26/2006 6:16:44 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know. . .)
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To: Doctor13; Bokababe; zagor-te-nej; Lion in Winter; Honorary Serb; jb6; Incorrigible; DTA; ma bell; ..

Hoppy, marky-mark, and that other loser are going to go ballistic when they see this one. They hate the truth!

4 posted on 09/26/2006 6:17:50 PM PDT by FormerLib (Sacrificing our land and our blood cannot buy protection from jihad.-Bishop Artemije of Kosovo)
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To: Doctor13

Yes, yes and yes, except that it is too bad that people still believe that Iraq isn't/wasn't full of terrorists. WRONG!

5 posted on 09/26/2006 6:20:35 PM PDT by ladyinred
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To: Doctor13
I am putting my helmet on because I know I'm gonna get hammered by the Bushbots (and I voted for the man twice).

Tonight I had dinner with an old friend. Between the two of us we have voted for ZERO Democrats in our lives, but both agreed that Bush's stance on border security is a national disgrace.

If you're going to say that Clinton was "Protecting Kosovo at the Expense of New York" don't you also have to say that Bush was defending Iraq at the expense of Houston (and dozens of other U.S. cities)?

I think I know one police officer's widow who probably feels that way tonight.
6 posted on 09/26/2006 6:28:26 PM PDT by BW2221
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To: Doctor13
Click Here

7 posted on 09/26/2006 6:30:45 PM PDT by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: Doctor13

This is an interesting perspective. In fact, I thought I recall reading a couple articles--including one from Michael Savage, about how Kosovo/Serbia and the Balkans in general was more about oil than Iraq ever was. From Holbrooke's personal interest's in the region to Clinton administration commerce trips, to Soviet interests in oil and pipelines from this region, is it possible that this was the real blood-for-oil war? Anyone have any details on this?

8 posted on 09/26/2006 6:45:48 PM PDT by cwb (Liberalism is the opiate of the *sses.)
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To: Doctor13
The accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade did not help either...

It is highly unlikely that the attack was "accidental".

9 posted on 09/26/2006 7:23:52 PM PDT by F-117A (They say there is no such thing as an ex-Marine,.Murtha disproves that!!!)
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To: Doctor13

The writer posits that there is an eqivalence between Kosovo and Iraq. Correct me if I am wrong: didn't Clinton tell us we would find mass graves of 300,000 people in Kosovo, where no such graves were found? And did we not find 300,000 bodies in mass graves in Iraq? What was the threat to the US?
If memory serves me correctly, this decision, like so many public-opinion driven decisions in this country in the last 20 years, was made on the basis of a picture of a Romeo and Juliet couple pinned down in crossfire in a village square. A picture is worth a lot more than a thousand words. We committed to defend Kuwait when we saw video of people describing the Iraqi occupuation, and stopped short when we saw pictures of the Highway of Death where so much of Saddam's men and machines were incinerated. We committed to Somalia on the basis of pictures of starvation--the issue had been there for some time, but became an irrestistible force overnight. We turned tail and ran from there at the sight of our mutilated Marine heroes. (Shame on us). The left raised a furor over the Abu Grab-ass issue, not because the issue had been concealed (it had been described for some time in public and private briefings and raised nary an eyebrow), but because the administration hadn't informed its opponents that there were PICTURES that they could put on the front page of the New York Times for 100 days. Of course, the PICTURES of genuine torture in the same prison carried out by Saddam were only viewed by 3 reporters, at least one of whom had to leave the room to vomit, and were far too violent to be put on the front page of the New York Times for any days at all.
Some days I fear we are just as shallow as the Islamofascists think we are.
But I am a Red Sox fan, familiar with disapointment, but knowing that sometimes you actually do win, when it looks pretty damn bad.

10 posted on 09/26/2006 7:54:17 PM PDT by Humble Servant (Keep it simple - do what's right.)
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To: cwb

from another poster to me......

"An acquantance of mine with a background in energy business explained to me that:

-Caspian crude is of different type than Persian gulf crude or North Sea crude. It requres different refining technlogy, like one used in former USSR.

-there is much less oil in Caspian basin then generally thought.

-The name of the game is not Caspian oil, but Caspian natural gas. When sold to Pakistan and India, it can be sold at higher prices than on world market. It can also keep them in check.

-China is desperate to get hold of this natural gas via Afgan pipeline. That is what Afgan war prevented.

I found it curious that Milosevic death was for several days the top rated news worldwide, as if nothing more important was going on at that time. Experience tells me it was a merely a filler, to detract attention from the real top story, one related to Iran I guess."

Some links that might give some insight......Also, keep in mind the location of Camp Bondsteel.,3604,438134,00.html

Constanta Trieste A Balkan Pipeline, or Pipe Dream?
Mar 09, 2006


Representatives from Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Romania reached an agreement March 9 to construct the Constanta-Trieste oil pipeline. While the line is perhaps the most competitive and intelligently drawn up of the projects seeking to cross the Balkans, its realization is far from a shoo-in.


Italian Industry Minister Claudio Scajola said March 9 that he and representatives from Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Romania have agreed to build the Constanta-Trieste trans-Balkan oil pipeline. Such a line would stretch 870 miles and pump upward of 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude at a cost of $4.6 billion.

Which raises the most important issue in the discussion of any major transnational infrastructure project: cost. Romania is poor, Croatia and Slovenia are minor powers, and few would do much to help Serbia these days. Only the Italians have the wealth or influence to get the line built themselves, and Rome certainly is not going to belly up to the bar for close to $5 billion when only 1 percent of the route's length lies on Italian territory.

The European Union is often put forward as a likely payee, as are institutions such as the U.S. Export-Import Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or the World Bank. But the question then is: Why would they pay?

The problem with Constanta-Trieste -- indeed, any trans-Balkan oil pipeline -- is that it does not actually link to an oil source, but simply to a port (Constanta) on the Black Sea. Currently any oil exported from the former Soviet Union to the Black Sea has to transit the traffic-choked Turkish Straits before reaching global markets. The Constanta-Trieste line is intended to be not so much a supply line, but a massive bypass pipeline to take the stress off those straits.

In fact, the need for any such line is about to become less, not more, critical. Some Kazakh and nearly all the Azerbaijani oil that has until now traveled across the Black Sea will soon be transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline directly to the Mediterranean. Less crude being delivered to the Black Sea in the first place means less traffic in the straits, and therefore, less impetus to bypass them.

"Less" is indeed the watchword. Originally, supermajor Chevron Corp. planned to export all of the oil produced at the Tengiz superfield in Kazakhstan via a pipeline that terminates at the Russian port of Novorossiysk. But cooling Russian-Western relations have made the Russians far less willing to entertain Chevron's desires to expand that line from its current 650,000 bpd to something closer to 1.4 million bpd. Chevron has now decided it will upgrade facilities to ship the crude by tanker across the Caspian to Baku and then into the BTC for shipment around trouble spots like Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Turkish Kurdistan rather than deal with the Russians.

Between BTC diverting crude away from the Black Sea and disputes with Russia, the Black Sea is not about to get as glutted with crude as seemed to be the case as little as two years ago.

But for what it is worth, Constanta-Trieste has the best chances of getting built once compared to other options. Competing lines that just slice through Turkey, connect Bulgaria with Greece or with Albania via Macedonia simply do not make sense. Constanta-Trieste would help knit the most important Balkan states together to the European core, and would terminate at an existing European oil and refining hub already linked into the European transport network. All the others would simply pick up crude in one location and put it down in another where there is minimal usable infrastructure. The other lines would also require the construction of new port facilities, like those already in Trieste.

That means for Constanta-Trieste to leave the realm of snazzy lines on glossy handouts and enter the world of steel pipes and pumping stations, the traffic at the Turkish Straits will have to become so thick that it actually bleeds billions off of the bottom line of oil traders. If oil traders know anything, it is margins, and they will not put an ounce of influence behind a $4.6 billion project until -- not before -- those margins are affected. Even with the most aggressive estimates for Russian and Caspian oil reaching the Black Sea, BTC will see to it that such crowding is not the case for several years.

Copyright 2006 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

Reprint Rights:
Articles from Stratfor may not be reproduced in multiple copies, in either print or electronic form, without the express written permission of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. For mass reprint permission or content licensing, please e-mail for more information.

This is the most important and strategically significant development that may alter the geopolitical equation for SE Europe. What it means along general lines is that an alternate route is being prepared to balance the current delivery monopoly of Caspian oil resources via the Turkish pipeline to Ceyhan. Since Turkey played hard ball, under the guise of ecology, to restrict the Russian tanker oil traffic through the Turkish Straits, a countervailing bypass is planned to pick up the slack. A Turkish monkey wrench retort is most certainly not far behind. Paul

11 posted on 09/27/2006 5:46:56 AM PDT by tgambill (I would like to comment.....)
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To: tgambill

Thanks for the info and links.

12 posted on 09/27/2006 7:44:38 AM PDT by cwb (Liberalism is the opiate of the *sses.)
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To: cwb

If you see anything that stands out I would be interested your perspective.

13 posted on 09/27/2006 7:48:01 AM PDT by tgambill (I would like to comment.....)
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