Only 25% in Poll Voice Approval of the Congress (cBS/NYT Poll has Bush at 37%)

The New York Times ^ | September 21, 2006 | By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JANET ELDER

[Mongeaux]

With barely seven weeks until the midterm elections, Americans have an overwhelmingly negative view of the Republican-controlled Congress, with substantial majorities saying that they disapprove of the job it is doing and that its members do not deserve re-election, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

(snip)

Mr. Bush’s job approval rating was 37 percent in the poll, virtually unchanged from the last Times/CBS News poll, in August. On the issue that has been a bulwark for Mr. Bush, 54 percent said they approved of the way he was managing the effort to combat terrorists, again unchanged from last month, though up from this spring.

[Mongeaux]

Gallup had Bush up to 47% yesterday, cBS/NYT has him down to 37% today. Somebody's full of it...

[DuxFan4ever]

The New York Times Left Wing Times. All the DNC talking points that are fit to print.

[jrooney]

Gallup is trying to salvage their reputation since they parted ways with CNN. CBS and NY Slimes have zero credibility and they awake each morning trying to demolish GW and flush the repub majority. I think Ican safey say, Gallup poll is more likely.

[MNJohnnie]

Of course. This makes the 3 or 4th time CBS has jinned up a phony poll to try and show Democrats in a better position they they really are. The did the same thing in 2002 and 2004. But let them kid themselves they are doing better then they are. It just makes it so much funnier to watch when election day smashes their faces in.

I will tell you want is going to happen. The Polls are going to be this sudden surge in love for the Democrats going up to the first or Second week of Oct. Then you are going to see almost daily ebbs and flows until right before the election you will see polls showing it neck and neck with a slight edge for the Democrats going into election day.

After election day the pollsters are going to be busy screaming to try and cover up why they all totally under represented Republican strength.

This election is going to be a mighty yawner with little to no changes. That in itself, given the massive structural advantages the Democrats have going in, is a huge defeat for them even if they pick up a few seats here or there

[Mongeaux]

It's always a mistake to cherrypick polls - the ones showing your guy up are the ones you tend to believe. However, 37% is as much an outlier as 47%. Rasmussen put the number at 40, so I tend to think that the number is closer to 40+.

And yes - Gallup was way off in 2004, so I think they have something to prove this time around and aren't weighting the samples as poorly as last time.

This feels like an attempt by cBS and the NYT to cool the jets a bit for the GOP. But that could be total wishful thinking on my part.

[msnimje]

This is what happens when you only call people inside the CBS building.

[RippyO]

Show me a poll where people say they LIKE Congress. You won't find one in the last 70 years.

This poll would be meaningful if states didn't exist and we had 435 at-large districts.

Ask people if they approve of the job THEIR Congressman is doing. The approval numbers would be way higher.

[DuxFan4ever]

This election is going to be a mighty yawner with little to no changes.

I hope you are right, but with lemons like Conrad Burns and Mike DeWhine up to bat for the GOP, I'm pretty nervous. Not as nervous about the House anymore, but the Senate. That place is where Harry Reid and his cohorts have been obstructing.

[MNJohnnie]

Oh I think we may lose a could of Senate seats. And as many as 10 US House seats. Makes things tougher for us but it will not be the landslide See-BS and the NY Slimes try to make it out as being.

The Conventional Wisdom in DC is this is going to be a huge election. When ever you can bet against the Conventional Wisdom. Starting with 1980 and going forward, they have not got their forecasting right on a single election.

Structurally it is almost impossible for us NOT to lose a few seats. What IS important is how many we lose. Given the way things are set we should lose a lot.

However thanks to the gross incompetence of our foes, we will not lose nearly as many as we should.

[Betty Jane]

We'll know which way the election will go a few days before election day. If the networks plan big election night coverage, be worried that the Dems have a real chance of winning.

If on the other hand, regularly scheduled programmng is planned, you will know that the republicans will have a good night. The networks will say it's not important enough. And anyway, the cable stations will cover the electins.

[Mongeaux]

The congress angle obscures the real point in these numbers:

Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Vote
CBS News/NY Times.......09/15 - 09/19....R-35% D-50%
USA Today/Gallup............09/15 - 09/17....R-48% D-48%

Gallup had both parties TIED yesterday.
cBS has the GOP down FIFTEEN PERCENT today!

[MNJohnnie]

It is even a bigger mistake to have excessive faith in Junk Media polls.

By playing with their sample the Junk Media manufactures this sort of "Horse race" menality to drive ratings. Media polling is more about marketing then fact.

Gallup did a 48%D-48%R LIKEY voter poll. What are the Internals on this piece of garbage? How much you want to be it is something like 35%D-27%R-38% I anyone over 18 who answered the phone?

You have to be registered with the NY Slimes to read them.

[onyx]

Rigged (weighted) polls passing for news.

If they're so accurate, let's dispense with voting and let MSM and the pollsters elect our representatives.

[Mongeaux]

yes I discovered that the internals aren't available for the NYT poll, that's why I posted it actually. I was hoping that some other Freeper might be able to get em. But I agree it looks like a junk poll because of both timing and the pollsters themselves. In 2004 cBS and NYT did horribly in September and October, slanting the sample and numbers heavily Kerry. No reason to assume they aren't doing it again.

[Cobra64]

It's always a mistake to cherrypick polls - the ones showing your guy up are the ones you tend to believe.

That's why I hold this position on polls:

[TitansAFC]

Here's why this poll is always junk:
The sponsors - CBS and NYTimes

Read pages 21 and 22:

According to this polling "company": The Democratic Party has never endured a "Not Favorable" public opinion of higher than 47% in the last twelve years - EVER. They have NEVER had a majority negative opinion or really ever been close.

We're not talking more than 50% here, we're talking not more than even 47%.

Meanwhile, the GOP has spent a big chunk of the last twelve years with "Not Favorable" ratings of well over 50%.

Add to that the "Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?" question:

In the last eight years, they have never once polled less than 30% Democrat voters - EVER. They have scarcely polled 30% or more Republican voters during this time.

It is a tainted poll, and they are probably privately embarrassed that it is such an outlier that nobody will believe it.

[TitansAFC]

See post #16.

[MNJohnnie]

Excellent work T. Pretty up proves they are vastly oversampling Dems in their polling.

The other problem for the Democrat cheerleaders. Voters live in Congressional Districts. So if the Blue Congressional dist-cits give 55-65% of their vote to the Dems and the Red districts go red, you can still have a generic poll showing all this love for Democrats that does NOT win them control of the Congress.

[MNJohnnie]

From Freeper StandandDeliver

Battleground 6/20-23: 41 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 11 (unsure) +8 DUm

AP/Ipsos 6/17-19: 40 (GOP) - 47 (DUm) - 10 (neither) - 3 (not sure) +7 DUm

CNN/USA/Gallup 7/30 - 8/1: 44 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 7 (undecided) +5 DUm

NBC/WSJ 9/17-19: 42 (GOP) - 46 (DUm) - 12 (undecided) +4 DUm

CBS/NYT 7/11-15: 37 (GOP) - 46 (DUm) - 8 (depends) - 9 (don't know) +9 DUm

Time 6/2-4: 37 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 4 (other) - 11 (not sure) +12 DUm

Newsweek 7/29-30: 41 (GOP) - 51 (DUm) - 8 (undecided) +10 DUm

LAT 6/5-6/8: 35 (GOP) - 54 (DUm) - 1 (Ind) - 3 (neither) - 7 (unsure) +19! DUm

Democracy Corps 8/2-5: 41 (GOP) - 51 (DUm) - 2 (other) - 6 (not sure) +10 DUm

-

2004 General Election Results: House +3 GOP / Senate +4 GOP

[Mongeaux]

oh yeah all those polls were terribly off. I agree cBS/NYT polls are not worth the photons they give off the puter screen. They are all in the tank for the Dems.