Posted on 08/19/2006 7:22:51 AM PDT by thackney
Energy prices jumped Friday after meteorologists flagged the possibility of a very strong storm developing in the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week, refocusing attention on the 2006 hurricane season which has proven mild thus far.
Very warm waters in the Gulf, low wind shear and a low pressure disturbance coming up from the Yucatan Peninsula could emerge in the South Central part of the Gulf late Monday and into early Tuesday and develop into a hurricane, said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics in Philadelphia, Pa.
"It would hit south of New Orleans just south of the (oil and gas) rigs," he said. "What bothers me is that storms that have moved over hot pockets of water have developed into very intense storms. When Hurricanes Katrina and Rita passed over hot waters of Gulf they both became very intense storms." Rouiller said the stage could be set for the rapid tropical storm development that would go on to threaten central and eastern portions of the Gulf rig system along with Gulf coastal locations from Louisiana eastward to Florida.
The National Hurricane Center wouldn't confirm that any storms in the Gulf Coast were developing but several meteorologists agreed that all the conditions are present for a storm to form.
"The hurricane center won't talk about anything that's not an immediate threat," one meteorologist said. "But we see a pattern evolving."
The energy markets pay close attention to weather forecasts that threaten the oil and gas industry along the Gulf of Mexico. So far this summer, a major storm or hurricane premium has failed to emerge, part of the reasons that gasoline and crude futures have been falling.
Prices rebounded on Friday afternoon however, after the storm warnings emerged.
Weather forecasters have downgraded their hurricane expectations for 2006 from earlier in the year, though the season is still expected to pack considerable punch.
In its recent updated forecast, the widely watched Colorado State University team said it now expects 15 tropical storms this season, with seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming intense hurricanes of Category 3 or above. In May, they predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.
Good grief, it hasn't even formed yet and he is talking about where it will hit? They never predict those things accurately this far out, nothing like putting a scare into people and watching the oil prices jump, maybe an ulterior motive here since they have been dropping lately?
Is this irresponsible? Little favor for the futures speculators? Smells fishy, to me.
So this Jim guy predicts where a storm, that hasn't even formed yet, will hit. That is truly amazing.
Bush hates blacks and wants the storm to hit New Orleans. This storm was created by Cheney's weather machine.
Bush's fault!
Just another excuse for the speculators to drive the price of oil back up again. Guess they did not like the idea that it slipped below $70.00. Supply and demand my a**.
LOL! Wonder if he works for "Psychic Hotline"? (Are those things still around?) Let's face it, most weather "predictors" can't reliably predict the weather for the next day, let alone something like this.
I read that sentence and was a little puzzled also. For starters, "hit south of New Orleans"...what the heck does that mean? And with no formation yet (I just checked the NHC website) why are they even predicting anything.
Here's a link to the infrared sat view of the area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
Could NOLA stand another hit?
He and Rove play golf together. I'm sure Karl gave him the heads up as to where he has the Hurricane Machine dialed into.
Perhaps Mr. Rouiller should disclose his stock holdings. I wonder if he has any investment in petroleum futures?
The subject meteorologist is an irresponsible ass.
Has anything been rebuilt there? According to the MSM the Gulf Coast and NO still look like a war zone, just some of the rubble's been removed.
Who'da thunk'it?!!!
"So this Jim guy predicts where a storm, that hasn't even formed yet, will hit. That is truly amazing."
Maybe he is just long to many natural gas contracts, and he needs some help from the markets.
Joe Bastardi, tv spokesman for Accu-waether, was on last year and boasted on CNBC that he had holdings in energy futures.
So there's a chance that possibly something may or may not happen in the next week or so, but you can never really tell for sure...
Better hike gas prices another 50 cents a gallon just to be on the safe side.
Whitey's fault, of course.
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