Posted on 07/19/2006 11:32:19 AM PDT by Tolik
HH: Joining me now to discuss this, Victor Davis Hanson, classicist, professor of military history, and frequent guest. Good to have you back, Professor Hanson. Always a pleasure.
VDH: Thank you for having me, Hugh.
HH: How significant the next 48 hours in the Middle East, do you think?
VDH: Well, I think we have to be careful about listening to rhetoric that emanates out of the Middle East. When Iran says it's going to inflame the Muslim world, what does that mean? The Syrian Air Force is going to attack Israel? I don't think so. And for all the hundreds of rocket launches, or supposed hundred launches, they've been able to kill two Israelis. What we're really talking about is people on the other side of the proverbial Rhine River, the barbarians who think that they can inflict enough damage, psychological or otherwise, to tell people who have the good life, we have nothing to lose, you have everything to lose. We're going to aggravate you until you tire and give us concessions. And so the Israelis are put in this unfortunate position of having to retaliate to stop that. And having power and success and expertise, they can inflict a lot more damage than the terrorists can. And now it's just a matter of will, if the Israelis are willing to tell Syria and Lebanon, here is a series of gradations. We will take out your power plant, we will take out your roads, we will take out your airports, and it's up to you to see which level you want to escalate to. If they do that, they can stop it.
HH: Do you actually believe they could stop it for a long period of time, Victor Davis Hanson? Or is that simply another temporary measure?
VDH: I think they can stop it at each level. In other words, if they keep sending the rockets, they can bomb the sites as much as they want, and they can take out major power plants, and they can tell the Lebanese and the Syrians, you can live in the dark for a while. And then when they keep it up, they can continue to do that. If they're willing to take the international rebuke, the United States is willing to stop things in the U.N. If we're willing to settle the rattling of the Europeans, we can do that. But what I'm basically saying is the Israelis have to reinterpret or reconfigure what is terrorism as war, and hold states responsible, rather than individual.
HH: Do you think that's what they were attempting to do when they deny the government of Lebanon's mea culpa...actually, the denial of responsibility by the government of Lebanon, and Israel is rejecting that. Is that appropriate, in your view?
VDH: Absolutely. What they're trying to tell the Lebanese is when you get out in the street, whether you're Christian or Druse, or Shiia, or Sunni, and you fire a machine gun up in the air and celebrate an Israeli being kidnapped, there's going to be consequences, collectively. You may not have power. You may not have water. You may not have tourism. And you're willing to put up with that? Fine. Now we may have two or three rockets hit every week, but we're going to have power, and we're going to have life as usual, and you're not. And we'll see who can hold out the longest. And that's what they're trying to do now.
HH: Now Professor Hanson, Israel in the past has negotiated with terrorists. Are they only getting what they've sown in the past, now?
VDH: Yeah, I think the problem is that after the withdrawal of Gaza, which I supported, and the Lebanese withdrawal, inadvertently, and the incapacitation of Sharon, the message has been sent to the militant terrorists, jihadists, that the Israelis are reasonable, they're sober, judicious, and we're not. And they're easily intimidated. So now what Israel's trying to do, as they often do about every two or three years, is re-establish deterrence. And that usually means people have to die, unfortunately.
HH: But is it possible to re-establish deterrence after a long series of concessions, after the Oslo Accord, and after...
VDH: It makes it very hard, Hugh, because what you really have to tell people on the other side of the green line is that you're crazy. And after Oslo, and after all of these, as I said, sober and judicious diplomacies, the Palestinians and Hezbollah thought the Israelis were rational, they had this good life, they wouldn't want to give it up. They were willing to incrementally be attacked. They might have a little appeasement. Now, the Israelis have to say to Hezbollah, we are crazier than you are, and unlike you, we can inflict a lot more damage, and we really don't care what the world says, because we're not going to live like this in fear. Even if you don't take out a power plant, and even if you don't make life miserable, we just don't want to live where one or two Israelis gets killed every week by one of these crazy rockets. So we're crazier than you, and you're really going to pay this time.
HH: Now Professor Hanson, try and...for a moment, think like Hezbollah, Iran or Syria. Totalitarian states are brittle states. They really could end this if they gave back the two Israeli soldiers. They can't do that, can they?
VDH: Well, the problem with Islam in general, historically and the present day, they always have to deal with their right-wing fundamentalist extremist fringe. And that fringe holds these governments, hostage. So if they do give those back, then they're always susceptible to the charge that they're appeasing. Now maybe public opinion may or may not support that, but you don't have statesmen on the Arab side, or the Iranian side, who are willing to stand up and say we have to do this. It's realistic. We've got to negotiate with the Jews and Israel, and ignore that fringe. So then they let the fringe take over the public discourse, and then people who have no ideology, they just have an ideology they want to be on the side who wins, thinks that the fringe is winning. Then they join, get in the streets, and then we have the proverbial Arab street. But there's not any statesmen who are willing...there's no Churchills, no any of these people on that side. So what Israel's got to do is do statesmanship for the Arab countries. It's got to tell them if you want to be captive by these groups, then you're going to suffer, collectively.
HH: Let me ask you, to use your historian's knapsack now. Iran and Syria are not natural allies. The Persian empires have never been the allies, so much as the arbiters of the Arab world. How solid an alliance do you think this Iranian-Syrian axis is?
VDH: Well, they're the pariahs of the Middle East, and they're the people that no one really wants to deal with, and so that's...just...it's sort of an alliance of outlaws. At certain times on certain issues, Iraq, for example, the American presence in Iraq, Israel, they find some temporary alliance of convenience. But neither one of those two states is going to go to war for the other one. That's clear. And I think that after our experience in Iraq, where we're...and the Israeli experience with Hamas, this is going to be a realist policy of more rubble, less trouble, as far as the Israelis go.
HH: If, in fact, Syria is invaded by Israel, what impact would that have? A) I don't think it would be much of a battle, unless Iran intervened. But what impact would that have on our Iraq ally?
VDH: Well, that's the whole key as I see it, because the United States has committed itself to an idealistic, neo-Wilsonian vision that we're going to offer the Arab world something other than autocracy and theocracy, Muslim Brotherhood or Saddam Hussein. And this is a democratic, consensual government that will eliminate the conditions that led to 9/11. It's very sound in the long run. But in the short run, what that means is we don't have a lot of alternatives, because moderates who are trying to work with us are susceptible to selling out when they see the United States supporting Israel, or Israel doing this. And so, how do you tell the democratic government of Iraq look, forget about Israel. It doesn't have anything to do with Iraq. They're just trying to stir things up to undermine people like you. And in theory, al Qaeda likes Hezbollah, likes Hamas, and your enemies of your enemy is really Israel, so it may be your friend. But you can't really make that argument in today's Arab world.
HH: What would you do if you were given ten minutes with the prime minister, Olmert, tonight? What would you advise him to do?
VDH: I would have him through intermediaries tell Mr. Assad, and tell the Lebanese government, that I have six to seven to eight steps that are going to take place. And the first is, I'm going to eliminate all the power grids in Syria and Lebanon if this happens, and that would be X number of rockets. And then I would say if you go beyond that line, you're not going to have any highway system. If you go on to this, you're not going to have any air transportation systems. And I would map it out over about a thirty day period. And I'd say this is your choice, but this is what's going to happen. It's not negotiable. And then let them deal with their own militants, and discuss, and find a face-saving way out. And then tell the Israeli people you're at war, and mobilize. And I think that that would be about the only thing they could do. I would not invade. I wouldn't get on the ground in Lebanon and Syria.
HH: And what do you want to hear the President say over the course of these events unfolding this weekend and next week?
VDH: Who?
HH: Our President. What do you want to hear George W. Bush saying?
VDH: George W. Bush would have to tell the Arab world this is not your fight. These are people who are terrorists, who've tried to attack governments throughout the Middle East, and they understand that Iran was facing sanctions at the U.N., so Iran sicked Hezbollah, Hamas, was facing popular revolt, and it could not govern, so it's unleashed these terrorists. And don't get involved in this, because they're just using you. And I don't think that message will resonate very much in the Middle East, but that's what he's got to do. And then he's privately got to tell Israel, whatever you do, you've got to do it with overwhelming force, and quick, and don't get involved on the ground with these people.
HH: Victor Davis Hanson, always bracing. www.victorhanson.com, for the private papers of Victor Davis Hanson, plus tomorrow morning at Nationalreview.com, his regular Friday piece, I am certain.
End of interview.
Let me know if you want in or out.
Links: FR Index of his articles: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=victordavishanson
His website: http://victorhanson.com/ NRO archive: http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson-archive.asp
High volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. also
2006israelwar or WOT
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marking with thanks for the post...
If Bush and Olmert don't stand tough now, emboldened Hezbollah will be blowing up Grand Central Station, the Hamptons, and that mall in Minnesota. Because Israel is the appetiser. The US is the entree.
For once he may be wrong, as it looks as though Israel is going to take out Hizbollah militarily and make a real mess of Hamas.
If Iran steps in then the US gets involved.
Peres said last night on the BBC that they won't take on Iran, that is upto the super powers, but they are going to destroy Hizbollah.
Excellent article ping!
He, and his colleague at the Charleston Southern University, Davis Hanson Victor, provide a competing analysis that, while not in disagreement with Victor Davis Hanson's adroit conclusions, have a reasoning that differs in it's cromulence and embiggens the persuasiveness of the argument.
Still, I can't help but to also consider the rational appearing in a paper presented by Victor Victor Davis at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association titled "A Middle East identity crisis? State transformation in postwar Afghanistan and Iraq."
In that controversial work of note, the author agrees fully with Davis Hanson Victor while strenuously distancing himself from the conclusions of an earlier work of the aforementioned Davis Hanson Victor.
To add even more fuel to the fire, the ever vociferous and voluble Hanson Davis and Victor Hanson propose an entirely competing and counter-intuitive rational entirely.
I think he nails it.
If I were Bush I'd made this clear: any attack by Iran on Israel using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons would be interpreted as a nuclear strike on the United States. They can figure out what the consequences for that would be.
"HH: What would you do if you were given ten minutes with the prime minister, Olmert, tonight? What would you advise him to do?
VDH: I would have him through intermediaries tell Mr. Assad, and tell the Lebanese government, that I have six to seven to eight steps that are going to take place. And the first is, I'm going to eliminate all the power grids in Syria and Lebanon if this happens, and that would be X number of rockets. And then I would say if you go beyond that line, you're not going to have any highway system. If you go on to this, you're not going to have any air transportation systems. And I would map it out over about a thirty day period. And I'd say this is your choice, but this is what's going to happen. It's not negotiable. And then let them deal with their own militants, and discuss, and find a face-saving way out. And then tell the Israeli people you're at war, and mobilize. And I think that that would be about the only thing they could do. I would not invade. I wouldn't get on the ground in Lebanon and Syria.
HH: And what do you want to hear the President say over the course of these events unfolding this weekend and next week? .........
VDH: George W. Bush would have to tell the Arab world this is not your fight. These are people who are terrorists, who've tried to attack governments throughout the Middle East, and they understand that Iran was facing sanctions at the U.N., so Iran sicked Hezbollah, Hamas, was facing popular revolt, and it could not govern, so it's unleashed these terrorists. And don't get involved in this, because they're just using you. And I don't think that message will resonate very much in the Middle East, but that's what he's got to do. And then he's privately got to tell Israel, whatever you do, you've got to do it with overwhelming force, and quick, and don't get involved on the ground with these people. "
Good advice. I hope they take it.
Exactly. And one doesn't need suicide bombers for that sort of thing. Backpack bombs and exploding cars will do fine. Imagine what a few dozen carloads of these maniacs with mortars, ATRs and machine guns could do. This country is totally open to mayhem by these people.
Somebody's going to have to bell the cat. It should be the Lebanese government - it's their territory. It should be the UN - it's their resolution, after all. It should be the EU or NATO or any of the other collective security organizations long on advice but short on performance. It isn't any of those, however, it's down to the IDF. That being the case they should tell the advice-givers to shut up and that they'll do it their way and call everyone when it's safe to come out. IMHO.
review
"If Bush and Olmert don't stand tough now, emboldened Hezbollah will be blowing up Grand Central Station, the Hamptons, and that mall in Minnesota. Because Israel is the appetiser. The US is the entree."
So you think if Bush and Olmert DO stand tough now, the terrorists will refrain from further attempts against the US?
It may take them longer, but the islamic expansion bunch is undeterred by obstacles.
And patient.
Sounds very much like the credo of the RAT-bastard party.
Except for the fact that over 100 million American citizens are armed and that there is no where to hide for these scum in the US. They cannot "melt into the civilian population" because they stick out like sore ragheads.
I think he is parroting what he knows has already been said.
I thought Hans Christian Handerson was the Naural Philosopher who quoted the imminent sage his Emineminence Victor Delta as relating Moral Philosophy instead of the Unnatural Scientist a one immoral philosopher L. Ron Old Mother Hubbard.
The Crack in the Cosmic Egg
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