[GeronL]

The only exit poll that I saw that had Obrador winning was the one from the PRD itself all of the others said Calderon

[rovenstinez]

I always lie to people doing these exit polls.

[conservative in nyc]

The only exit poll that I saw that had Obrador winning was the one from the PRD itself all of the others said Calderon

I've only seen the same thing.

Calderon's PAN lead has been at 1% (+/-.25%) over the PRI since about 65% of the vote was reported. Calderon will win by that margin, unless there's massive Obrador PRD voter fraud. Over 98% of the vote is in, and the PRD would need to win practically all of the expected outstanding votes in order to win the election. What vote is out is predominantly from PAN-friendly NW Mexico. And the number of expected votes hasn't been matching the actual votes as it comes in because it seems that extremely rural or otherwise small precincts are the only ones left to be counted.