Isn't one of the problems regarding the Exodus date a political one, with biblical minimalists trying to dismiss the existence of Hebrews in Egypt altogether?
Great observation about the politics.
http://www.alislam.org/library/links/00000162.html
EXODUS - The Pretender to the Throne of Pharaoh
Fareeda Ahmad - UK
The Review of Religions, October 1996
(snip)
The order of events in both the Bible and Qur'an are different from the volcanic events and the theory does not fit the facts in every way, but the details are not considered important and where the clash cannot be ignored, for example the mutual incompatibility of Thera Tuthmosis and the 15th century, obviously one of these must change. Hence we sacrifice the timeline of Egyptian history and pull Tuthmosis back 200 years. Both books are well written and very interesting. Pelligrino, with whom I take exception, simply believes the Muslims have inherited Biblical stories and incorporated them into the Qur'an. I believe he is being unscientific. This could only be the case if the Qur'anic stories were proved to be a derivative of the Biblical ones. As the case stands it is the Biblical version of the days before the Exodus that seems more embellished.
Furthermore, if the Qur'an were based on the Bible, it should be careful not to differ in it's version of events and yet differ it does. Leaving aside whether Pelligrino and other scholars believe the Qur'an is written by God or the Holy Prophet (saw), it should still be treated as an older text (7th century AD), preserving a different version of events. This is easier to comprehend if we remember that the Latin Vulgate, which is of great importance dates to approximately 400 AD and that the definitive Massoretic text is from the 10th century AD.
(snip)
As for the explosion of Thera, in all probability it happened, but rather than propelling the Israelites out of Egypt, if it had the wide ranging climatic effect suggested to cause a change in weather and drought and famine and change of leadership it may even have been instrumental in propelling them into Egypt in search of food.
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Islam wants more than anything to prove there was never an Exodus...but Egypt wants back the gold and treasure the Israelites took out of Egypt with them. In Oz, we call that having a bet both ways.
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The August 9, 2003 edition of the Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram Al-Arabi featured an interview with Dr. Nabil Hilmi, Dean of the Faculty of Law at the University of Al-Zaqaziq who, together with a group of Egyptian expatriates in Switzerland, is preparing an enormous lawsuit against "all the Jews of the world." The following are excerpts from the interview: [1]
Dr. Hilmi: "… Since the Jews make various demands of the Arabs and the world, and claim rights that they base on historical and religious sources, a group of Egyptians in Switzerland has opened the case of the so-called 'great exodus of the Jews from Pharaonic Egypt.' At that time, they stole from the Pharaonic Egyptians gold, jewelry, cooking utensils, silver ornaments, clothing, and more, leaving Egypt in the middle of the night with all this wealth, which today is priceless."
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Area=sd&ID=SP55603
That has been my understanding.