Pyongyang's antics catch out Beijing (N. Korea, a cancer growing on China?)

Asia Times ^ | 06/27/06

[TigerLikesRooster]

Pyongyang's antics catch out Beijing

BEIJING - The international flap caused by reports that North Korea is preparing to test-fire its new Taepodong 2 intercontinental ballistic missile has placed China in an unenviable position.

Beijing appears to have had no impact on restraining its restive neighbor in this instance, leading the world to wonder just how influential it in fact is, given that it is traditionally viewed as the country with the most hold over North Korea. It could be that Beijing just didn't want to try to push Pyongyang too hard, or simply that there is nothing it can do to box in North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said Beijing "is very concerned

about the current situation".

Ban Ki-moon, South Korea's minister of foreign affairs and trade, was to travel to China on Monday to discuss the missile issue. "There is a growing need to intensify discussions between South Korea and China on North Korea's recent missile issue and the nuclear issue," the South Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Ban was to meet with his counterpart, Li Zhaoxing, as well as Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan, the ministry said.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Southern Chinese grumbling at those in Beijing.

The worst that can happen to China is that N. Korean regime collapses suddenly one day, leaving them little time to react. No because of military attack by others, but some freak internal event/accident.

Odds of such development is growing significantly now. China may think that, if they leave it the way it is, it will stay as it is. Wrong! It may appear that way for a while, and, it could disintergrate in a blink. N. Korea may look hard and unyielding now, but it is getting ever more brittle.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[IslandJeff]

Great story, but I think they'll figure something out. Only NK wants anything resembling a mess.

[Billthedrill]

It's sort of an interesting position, actually, and it's a hard lesson geopolitically in what happens when the benefits of a status quo lead a government to inaction. It was a question of who could sit the other out, the U.S. or China, and for a long time it appeared as if the U.S. would have to take action first, expensive both politically and militarily.

Bush didn't bite, which is itself very interesting. And so the North Koreans had to resort to ever shriller rhetoric and this odd sham of a missle that still sits supposedly fully fueled and ready to go. Every hour it sits so it is less likely to make it off the pad.

I have stated skepticism toward NK's putative nuclear program before on FR and I repeat it here. If in fact the whole thing turns out to be a grand masquerade then the Chinese' best option is to string it out...by inaction. What happens afterward is likely to be collapse of one sort or another and the Chinese had best ensure that it is the South Koreans who end up footing the reconstruction bill and not themselves. Had it happened as recently as five years ago the U.S. would have ended up picking up the tab, but that is laughably unlikely now in the face of the South Koreans' government's stated preference for ex-countrymen who would kill them over the foreigners who have defended them for half a century. Time, I think, is now on the side of the U.S. and will remain so unless somebody does something desperate...such as Chinese aid for the NK missile program? I do not think they would be foolish enough to give Kim a bomb, but a missile they just might.

All IMHO and probably not worth the paper it isn't written on, of course. BTT.

[dk/coro]

A very cogent observation. Thank you for introducing this aspect of the issue into context.

Far too many observers think only as far as next Sunday's dinner. *S*

[Rembrandt_fan]

The article read, "It could be that Beijing just didn't want to try to push Pyongyang too hard, or simply that there is nothing it can do to box in North Korean leader Kim Jong-il."

Or it could be that China uses North Korea as a kind of ongoing test of American (and Japanese) resolve, that China analyzes the way a given administration handles crises and integrates those responses into its tactical and strategic planning.

Why? Taiwan, of course.

I believe the next American president who shows unwillingness to confront North Korean provocations will invite the long-planned invasion of Taiwan. In my view, the Chinese are waiting for a convergence: a Carter-like presidency plus a war-weary, cynical public plus a Democratic majority in the US legislature. If the signs point favorably to an almost certain American non-response to an invasion of Taiwan, they'll make their move.

[IslandJeff]

Nailed.

Pray and vote.

[mhx]

Will a unified Korea be an ally?

[tcrlaf]

China is loath to do anything about NK because

A) it's a thorn in the side of the West
B) Energy starved China NEEDS the NK coal, literally the only export....

[Billthedrill]

I honestly do not know. I get the sense that the current government wants to ride the populist anti-American, pro-NK wave without consequences and is finding that to be an impossible luxury. A swing of the pendulum the other way and yes, South Korea will again be pro-U.S. and wealthy before unification, pro-U.S. and impoverished afterward. A unified Korea will be essentially neutral by sheer need to rebuild the wasteland that is the North. China is too strong for it to be any other way.

Korea has always been the counterweight to the Chinese thrust for Taiwan. Insofar as it acts to occupy U.S. interests to the detriment of the defense of Taiwan it will be advantageous to the Chinese to string this out. If it becomes disadvantageous they'll drop the Koreans like a hot rock. A Korea preoccupied with reconstruction will also be less of a commercial rival, which is an additional motive for the Chinese to let it go. But it all depends on what effect the Chinese consider their policy in Korea to have on Taiwan, it really does, and I wish I could read their collective mind on that topic.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #9

Such benefit would be outweighed by N. Korean regime's sudden collapse, if China stays the course.

[Joe Boucher]

Chi-coms need a few more problems foisted upon them. Maybe the three gourges dam failing next? North Korea blowing itself up and maybe another round of war with Viet Nam.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #12

You left out a big one: peasant/worker's rebellion.

[LadyNavyVet]

How likely do you think a rebellion is in the near term? There are rumblings, of course, and I'm sure a whole lot of discontent, but I've been waiting since 1989 for the implosion and still don't see much indication of it.

[EQAndyBuzz]

You cannot rebel if you are too starved to rise up and do anything.

Best thing that can happen is one of Kims bodyguards turns around and puts a bullet in the little meat head. Then let the chips fall where they may.

[LadyNavyVet]

Agreed. A rebellion in NK is highly unlikely, due to thorough brainwashing in the Juche philosophy as much as anything else.

I was specifically asking about China, responding to a post that mentioned the possibility of a worker's rebellion there. I'm intrigued at the thought, since in my mind it's way overdue.

[dfwgator]

Serves the ChiComs right if it wasn't for them, there would be no Li'l Kim.

[BJClinton]

In the most recent parliamentary elections a pro-American government was elected, the sitting Communist president has no power now and will be out in a few months.

[Billthedrill]

Much obliged. I'd kind of lost track. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised - I have a few Korean friends who are very vocally anti-Roh.

The North will eventually have to be rebuilt and it is inevitably the South that will foot the majority of the bill. How bad this will be one can only imagine. Germany is only now digging out from absorbing the East, and that was in much better shape than North Korea has ever been in. We're talking economic, agriculture, environmental, technological, manufacturing, and infrastructure disasters, and I've probably left out a few.

[BJClinton]

I have a few Korean friends who are very vocally anti-Roh.

Heh. I only have one, TigerLikesRooster, and he tends to keep me up-to-date on stuff like Korean elections. :-)

The North will eventually have to be rebuilt and it is inevitably the South that will foot the majority of the bill.

I think it would be an enormous investment opportunity for SK, Japan and the United States.