HEADS UP!
Posted on 06/10/2006 6:03:31 AM PDT by dogbyte12
000 WTNT31 KNHC 101246 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
HEADS UP!
TD "Greta" in Aruba?
/sarc
Central FL TV says "beneficial rains" expected, but not a major problem.
Looks like we got ourselves a new thread for the first depression of the season. May it not get a name.
And so it begins ... time for the official thread!
...and here we go.
Here we all are...together again!
Hi Hurricane Buds:)
Great, one of those tracks is right over casa NVA.
Damn I'm good! I said there would be some bad weather this summer, and "excelsior!", I was right!"
As long as it doesn't shut down the Boardwalk art show in Va Beach next weekend.
Where did the Weather Channel send Jim Cantori? When you see him in your town, you're pretty much screwed.
Tornados should be the biggest concern for Florida.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 85.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA FROM WESTERN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA WITH TOPS TO -85C. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW AT LEAST TWO SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH THE ADVISORY POSITION BEING THAT OF THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE U. S. TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE INTENSITY TO REACH 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. IF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1300Z 21.1N 85.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
They haven't sent Jungle Jim out yet, but Stephanie Abrams is in Tampa.
Hopefully we won't be watching another season of overnight bomb-ups.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_400x300_public/EI/isaecar.gif
This loop updates every hour or so.
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