Posted on 05/17/2006 4:43:52 AM PDT by Jacob Kell
Citizens of Montenegro, the mountainous, sparsely populated former Yugoslav territory, will vote Sunday in a referendum on severing its remaining links with Serbia. The pro-independence camp is confident of victory.
The referendum will determine whether the state of Serbia and Montenegro continues to exist. That loose federation - replacing the rump Yugoslavia - was created three years at the strong urging of the European Union, which at the time opposed the Montenegrin government's desire to break with Serbia. Since both Serbia and Montenegro wish to join the EU, Brussels has been deeply involved in the May 21 referendum. Under its guidelines independence will be recognized only if 55 percent of the voters favor it.
Srdjan Darmanovic, director of Montenegro's Center for Democracy and Human Rights, says polls clearly point to independence.
"I think we will have a pretty clear result where independence will go beyond 55 percent," said Srdjan Darmanovic. "All polls that are conducted here indicate that the Bloc for Independent Montenegro might win about 55 percent of the votes."
Montenegro was an independent state in the 19th century. Its 650,000 inhabitants are proud of their separate identity even though their language and religion are like those of the Serbs. Serbia has promised to respect the wishes of the Montenegrin people.
Lisa McClain is the Montenegro country director of the US-based National Democratic Institute, which promotes western style democracy. She says both the pro and anti independence campaigns have been well organized. She says the result could hinge on the votes of the Montenegrins who live outside the territory.
"You have to understand there are a lot of unknowns out there, especially the issue of the Diaspora coming home," said Lisa McClain. "How many Diaspora are coming home and of all that group that is coming home, who are they voting for. That's not included in the poll samples."
It is assumed that many of the over 200,000 Montenegrins living in Serbia will vote to preserve links with Serbia.
Of particular concern to observers is an indecisive result where more than half but less than the needed 55 percent vote for independence. Christoph Bender in Vienna is a European Stability Initiative expert on the Balkans.
He says stability in the region would best be served by a clear vote for independence. Bender says the current association with Serbia is dysfunctional.
"The current status that we have now is very loose, a state union that can not be a solution in the longer term," said Christoph Bender. "A state like this can not become a member of the European Union." Srdjan Darmanovic in Podgorica agrees that a decisive victory for independence will be the easiest outcome to deal with.
"The situation will be more complicated if we stay in the gray zone because legally Montenegro will not become independent, but politically a majority of the people will deny the existence of the union [with Serbia]," he said. "If it is between 50 percent and 55 percent then we should expect lengthy talks among Montenegro, Serbia and the European Union."
Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who has long backed independence, is expected to resign if his side loses the vote.
The breakup of nation states into nation counties continues.
Tribalism strikes again.
US take notice, we are all Americans or we will follow the same path.
He will not. The voting will be repeated another time and another until the result is correct.
Once the tiny republic is separated from the rest of Serbia it will be destroyed using Muslim minority (which will be instrumental in this voting)
Exacty. What's the point of independence if they're just going to be ruled from Brussels anyway?
An independent Montenegro will be overrun with home grown jihadists.
Sounds good to me. Making amalgams of countries has never worked very well. Most of that damage is finally being undone. Corsica for the Corsicans!
Unless you think a decade of Serbia & Montenegro is too important a legacy to split up?
Unless you think it's a good idea to subsume the US into a new North American nation state?
Montenegro and Serbia are one and the same nation. Same way as New England and the rest of USA are.
Some things stay the same. I just hope someday that a confederation develops in the USA. Where states can combine resources and remove federal taxation and work it out for thier citizens.
Why do people in democracies think they know best for the whole when thier own home is a hell hole?
Yup, just like New England and the rest of the USA.
Regardless of the outcome what business does the EU have in anything?
There were internal conflicts in history of USA too. Montenegro was a center of Serbian identity. Even people like Karadic or Milosevic and of Montenegrin extraction.
The main reason why some Montenegrins might be willing to break out (with the help of Muslim votes) is that there is a tremendous pressure from outside (economic sanctions on Serbia, Serbian and Montenegrin governments under outside influence etc ... ) and people are getting tired.
It's all about Greater Albania....and it follows the strategy since 1948 by the U.S. UN, EU and Albanian Nationalist....It started in Bosnia with the fabrications for entering the Balkans in the early 90's...
Since Montenegro's crooked policians play around with the albanian mafia... Serbia is better off without them.
Hitler's promise to his allies the ALBANIANS... fulfilled at the expense of Serbs.
Not really. After a while Montenegrin population will be forced to flee to Serbia as Muslims take over. Serbs will lose a beautiful part of their country with mountains, historical monuments and Adriatic coast. The last but not the least Serbia will be landlocked.
Djukanovic is a thug, plain and simple. But because for some unknown reason the US wants seperation of Montenegro and Serbia we support him.
Check out what happened to Srdija Trifkovic last year http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/cgi-bin/hardright.cgi/Dictator_Threatens_.printer
I think that the reason why US and EU establishments do those things to Serbs is to punish them for defiance, to subdue them and to test the new methods of rule. (They will be applied to others in the future). And the fact that Djukanovic is a thug is seen as a plus.
I am full-blooded Montenengrin, Johnny. My grandmother's grandmother was Njegos's sister, so I have no reason to "defend the Serbs" at the expense of Montenegro. However, the "history" reprinted above is crap.
King Peter Karadjordjevic of Serbia (the WWI King) married Princess Zorka Njegos-Petrovic, daughter of Prince Nikola of Montenegro. His son, King Alexander Karadjordjevic was half-Montenegrin, himself.
Yes, there were those in Montenegro who fought against union with Serbia and those who were for it, but it would be a mistake to see Serbia as some sort of "unwanted alien agressor". Serbia and Montengro have always been "related" by language, culture and relgion, and always will be -- independent of whatever the politics of the moment are.
Interesting, I heard somewhere that Montenegro will be taken over by Islamofascists.
I don't think animosity is the point, though, rather, distinct identities. The US and Canada are very similar, but shouldn't unite. Similarities exist with many neighbors, but I tend to think it's better that they be separate, as a general rule. I think the UK would be better off splitting up, for example, at least Scotland, where there is a nascent movement toward that end. The central govt can drag down all of the countries in the Kingdom, smothering vitality that, if allowed to flourish under self-rule, would stand in contrast to decay and light the way to a better future. In the US, the states can show what works and what doesn't, to the extent the federal govt supports federalism.
I have no problem with an "independent Montengro". I have a real problem with an independent Montenegro now -- largely because so many Albanians (and Serbia & Montenegro's enemies) support it. It is a "divide (the Serbs) and conquer strategy" that I hope they don't play into to -- for their sake.
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