George F. Will: Political stew in San Diego

Sacramento Bee ^ | 4/27/6 | George F. Will

[SmithL]

SAN DIEGO - The baroque process of picking a replacement for jailed Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham has made California's 50th Congressional District inscrutable. It will be deciphered by the evening of June 6.

On April 11, the district voted on 18 candidates - 14 of them Republicans. If one had received more than 50 percent, he or she would have Cunningham's seat, at least until this November's election.

Democrat Francine Busby, 55, a women's studies lecturer who in 2004 won 36 percent running against Cunningham, finished first, but with only 43.7 percent, about what Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry won in the 50th in 1996, 2000 and 2004 - 45, 43 and 44, respectively. So Republicans heaved sighs of relief, thinking the seat is safe. They sighed prematurely. . . .

[calcowgirl]

Roach says that after April 11, when the Republican establishment rallied around Bilbray, Darrell Issa, the Republican who now represents the 49th, threatened to "bury" Roach if he did not quit campaigning. Roach is a conservative, pro-life and aghast at spending by the Republican-controlled Congress, and he says Bilbray is not because Bilbray is pro-choice and "has voted for many tax increases."

Issa is a Thug.

[Experiment 6-2-6]

Roach says that when Busby's campaign and liberal bloggers concluded that she could not get more than 50 percent on April 11, they urged Democrats to cast some votes for Bilbray because they thought he would be easier to beat than Roach on June 6. Roach says Bilbray could lose to Busby on June 6 - and if he, Roach, does not run, Bilbray will win the Republican nomination that day, a prelude to Bilbray's losing to Busby again in November.

I've never met Roach, but I have met Bilbray. One should never speak ill of a fellow Republican.. Bilbray was conservative enough to lose his seat to a liberal district..

[MikeA]

"They sighed prematurely"


More nonsense from Will. Chuck Todd, the political guru at the National Journal's Hotline told me himself Bilbray will win this. He said "I'd be very surprised if Bilbray doesn't win." It's not even on the NJ's top list of House races to watch. I doubt anything's changed in the week since he told me that.

Will is spending too much time with Stephy boy over at ABC. It's making him a RINO.

[calcowgirl]

One should never speak ill of a fellow Republican..

It's a PRIMARY, for cryin' out loud!

[p. henry]

I agree with you 100%.

[Experiment 6-2-6]

Um, no, it's also an election for the six month term until the seat is filled on election day.

The "Primary" was back in April.

[calcowgirl]

Um, no, there are 2 separate elections.

The April election was an Open Primary for the few months remaining in Cunningham's term.

The June election is a traditional Primary for the full congressional term, and a runoff of the April election.

[joltinjoe]

I would like one historical example where a democrat or republican received 43% of the total primary vote running unnopposed and then picked up enough votes to win a general. Are there any examples?

[santorumlite]

Arnold set the election the same date as the contested dem primary for the governor's race.

Arnold did the dems a great favor.

The dem governor candidates are spending tens of millions which will turn out dem votes who will vote for busby.

Bilbray also has conservative voters who might not vote for bilbray hoping he loses so they can take on bilbray in november.


Roach is lost. If Busby wins the special election there is no way in the world she will lose as the incumbent in november.

She will get 60 percent as the incumbent.

With the dem primary for the governor's race the same day and roach's antics it will take a miracle for bilbray to win.

Bilbray will be a lot closer to 44 percent busby got in the primary than to winning with the setup for june 6th.

[Pukin Dog]

The thing is, Roach is mostly right. Busby supporters did vote for Bilbray, and I will hold my nose and vote for Bilbray to keep Busby out. There is almost no chance in hell that Busby will win.

[calcowgirl]

Bilbray also has conservative voters who might not vote for bilbray hoping he loses so they can take on bilbray in november.

Well, that would be stupid. Everyone should vote for Bilbray for the RUNOFF.

But again, the PRIMARY is a SEPARATE election: a separate ticket, a separate set of boxes to chose. Let the voters decide who they want as their candidate instead of this GOP thuggery.

[fieldmarshaldj]

No brainer. Bilbray for the short, Roach for the long.

[Dane]

Will is spending too much time with Stephy boy over at ABC. It's making him a RINO

Plus Will has to keep his employers at the Wash Post happy by coming up with a non-story.

[onyx]

=== ping ===

[Jimbaugh]

Bilbray is a crook and the info will come out before November. http://www.bajagua.org

600 million dollar sewage plant.

1. No Bid Contract
2. Contract given to company that has never built anything.
3. Bilbray wrote the law setup this deal, then he became the lobbyist, and now he wants to go back to congress to get the money for the deal.

The Republican party has become a part of disorganized crime.

PS: The money guys are Republicans from Rancho Sante Fe and give lots of money to Bob Filner-DEM who is one of the most leftist congressmen in Washington DC.

I guess Republicans never let a little thing like being a marxist stand in the way of profits.

[SoCalPol]

We have been through this before. Either you have a brain block or are a liberal troll.
Busby v Bilbray. a primary you say so let the liberal democrat win.
That gives her a base and easier way to win the regular election.
Give it a rest already. Let the people who actually live in San Diego County decide not outsiders.

[calcowgirl]

Busby v Bilbray. a primary you say so let the liberal democrat win.

I said no such thing! Quit posting lies. Here is what I wrote:

" Everyone should vote for Bilbray for the RUNOFF. "

Let the people who actually live in San Diego County decide not outsiders.

I have family in the 50th district--a district you don't live in either, I might add.

BTW, a liberal democrat can't win in the PRIMARY, an election where VOTERS are supposed to chose their candidate, NOT the PARTY!

[Amerigomag]

I'd like to see a study of the correlation between dyslexia and liberalism among Republican partisans.

I'll bet the connection is more than casual.

[SoCalPol]

I have family and friends in the 50th and have always lived in San Diego.
That dist. has become more liberal over the past recent years including having one of Busbys's supporters as the city councilmen rep of much of the area.
Roache v Busby would be a win for the democrats.