Posted on 03/24/2006 9:45:00 AM PST by RWR8189
Republicans took a step toward political revival Tuesday in Illinois, where they nominated viable moderates (relatively speaking) in two key races. Performances this fall by Judy Baar Topinka and David McSweeney, while isolated to specific races, could say a lot about how Republicans fare in midterms elections. Not just in the Land of Lincoln, but in suburbs across the country.
Putting a higher priority on victory than ideology, GOP primary voters chose Topinka, a polka-dancing, cigarette-smoking, foul-mouthed moderate with ties to disgraced former Gov. George Ryan (R), over two buttoned-down conservatives vying to challenge Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), in what has become perhaps the GOP's biggest pick-up opportunity this year. That fact alone is shocking. Remember, it's been just two years since the Alan Keyes fiasco.
Once wildly popular, Blagojevich has seen his support dwindle in the second half of his term amid charges of corruption. Along with Gov. Jennifer Granholm in nearby Michigan, he now ranks among the most vulnerable Democratic governors up in 2006. On Tuesday, while he became the first Democrat to win his party's nod for re-election since 1965, he also lost 30 percent of the vote to a no-name liberal challenger. The battleground in Illinois will be the Chicago suburbs, where Topinka runs strong.
But even bigger indicators of national trends could play out in two House races unfolding in the backyards of Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, where a battle for suburban voters has far-reaching implications.
Republicans Phil Crane and Henry Hyde dominated the city's western suburbs for decades, sailing easily to re-election with decidedly conservative voting records. For Crane, that ended in 2004 when Democrat Melissa Bean scored an upset win, knocking off the 18-term incumbent in a race that served as a warning call to House Republicans in other suburban districts.
Hoping to take back Crane's seat, Republicans in the 8th District this week nominated McSweeney, a conservative by some standards, but decidedly less so than his two main primary opponents. McSweeney's nomination suggests, anecdotally at least, that Republicans have peered into the abyss of minority status, and are trying to back away.
By choosing a relatively moderate candidate in an increasingly competitive district, some GOP strategists say, they're better positioned to compete with Bean and take back the seat this fall.
But it doesn't stop there. McSweeney's performance will be watched closely this fall by suburban Republicans across the country and by House GOP moderates like Christopher Shays, Conn., Jim Gerlach, Pa., Heather Wilson, N.M., and Vito Fosella, N.Y. In an anti-GOP wave driven by antipathy toward President Bush and his national party, these incumbents could be among the first to fall.
Some of those suburban Republicans aren't currently top DCCC targets. But as Emanuel struggles to explain how Democrats can take back the House in today's incumbent-protection landscape, his hand would be strengthened by a wave of wins in traditionally GOP-friendly suburbs.
Republicans, of course, are hardly united in how to avoid such a scenario.
Moderate GOP strategists like Sarah Chamberlain Resnick say the party should focus on attracting suburban swing voters with issues like education and health care and protecting their fragile House majority. "If we don't have suburban voters in our column this fall, we don't have enough support to hold the House," said Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports moderate GOP candidates. "Suburban voters vote, and if they start to vote Democratic, our Republicans will lose."
Resnick said the issue is not necessarily demographic shifts, but the GOP's shifting focus onto wedge issues like same-sex marriage and abortion rights, which alienate swing voters.
"The more flag-burning amendments we have to vote on, the worse we do," she said. "The more 'Terri Schiavos' and the more gay-marriage amendments, the more we feed the base, the more we lose these suburban swing voters we need in order to win."
Conservatives, however, view it differently.
In an interview, Pat Toomey, head of the conservative Club for Growth, acknowledged that his organization's goal is not to hold power, for power's sake.
"Our mission is not to help Republicans hold onto the majority," said Toomey, who himself challenged moderate Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., in the party's 2004 primary. "We don't want Republicans to lose the majority. Obviously, it's hard to advance the agenda we believe in if they do. But there are other organizations that exist for the purpose of preserving the majority. Our focus is to make sure the right Republicans get elected in primaries, so that when they get to Congress, they’ll govern as Republicans rather than as indeterminate squishes."
-- John Mercurio is a NationalJournal.com contributing writer and a senior editor of The Hotline. His e-mail address is jmercurio@nationaljournal.com.
John McCain
Lincoln Chaffee
Arlen Specter
Indeterminate squishes.
They must go.
"Putting a higher priority on victory than ideology,..."
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It's so frustrating! When we have a strong conservative candidate the "moderate" PUBS (I say RINO'S) vote for the RAT. Now we have "moderate" PUB candidates and we are supposed to vote for them.
The bigger problem is when they get to DC they act like RATS.
Oh, I see. The left is moderate but the right is extreme. Did Lyin' Ryan write this?
Did this idiot at the "National Journal" talk to ANY Republican in Illinois?
I'm an Illinois Republican. And I can tell you that EVERY McSweeney commercial highlighted the fact that he was a conservative.
As to Topinka, as the highest elected Republican officeholder in IL, as the head of the party machinery and the candidate of the party machine, as the only women in the field, for her to win only 38% of the vote is an embarrassment. She should have won in a romp. Instead, precisely because of her "moderate" (read: Liberal) views, she barely beat out two conservative opponents who, if they hadn't divided the conservative vote, would have ended her career.
Sen. McCain isn't a moderate. Here are a few of his ratings from famous interest groups: American Conservative Union, 83%; National Right to Life Committee, 82%; and ACLU, 20%.
I hate the campaign finance reform bill because it restricts freedom of speech which was promised by the First Amendment. However, McCain usually votes conservatively
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Phil, love your music especially the old Genesis days when it was you, Peter, Tony, Steve and Mike. :-)
Numbers are funny things. They can say anything.
I don't trust the man and CFR heightens that distrust.
He is a wolf in masquerade.
I disagree.
I think Topinka will win handily.
In 2002 she got more votes for Treasurer than Blago got for governor, love her or hate she is a pretty popular politician in Illinois outside of the Republican party.
Judy appears to really want the job of Governor. So far, in her post-primary appearances, she is showing energy and zeal than Jim Ryan did in 2002.
His tumor may or may not have had an effect on him leading him to quite voluntarily designate Jesse Shakedown Jackson the Elder to receive substantial proceeds from a federal lawsuit by his office against shoe manufacturers to set up an, ummmm, training and employment program for women chosen by the Rev. Mr. Shakedown. Jim Ryan did not get to play Kjellander RINO as governor but the evidence was there in his, ummmm, service as AG. Don't get me wrong. Better Jim Ryan as AG than Lisa Madigan, but if Jim Ryan as governor was the answer, it must have been an unusually stupid question.
Now, courtesy of Brady (who enthusiastically backs the abortion-loving lavender supporting lot lizard Judeeeeee!!!!! and, truth be known, did all along) and his intervention in the gubernatorial campaign with utterly no chance whatsoever of winning and refusal to withdraw even at the end, we have the single worst GOP gubernatorial candidate in even Illinois combine history. Just a bit less than eight months to go in her miserable excuse for a career and until Illinois conservatives and Republicans finish her off.
Energy and zeal (like Gloria Steinem in her prime only a lot less charismatic) are no reason to vote our worst enemy into the governorship from which she might buy continued control of the party. Maybe Jane Fonda can be persuaded by Judeeee!!!! to be our Senate candidate against Durbin. Babs Streisand against Obama. Each is no less a Republican that Judeeee!!!!!
Ditch the witch.
All of those mentioned are safe, with the possible exception of Shays, who has both alienated the surprisingly conservative voters of New Canaan (Ann Coulter's hometown, 63% for Bush in 2004) and Darien, but is still hated by the increasingly liberal voters in Westport, Norwalk, and Stamford. If Shays puts up a strong showing in Greenwich (51% for Bush in 2004) he should prevail. If Republican voters stay home, he is toast.
I wish Chris Gerlach and Heather Wilson were safe, but alas, they are not. Gerlach has won by 51%-49% in both his initial run in 2002 and his reelection in 2004, and his district gets a little bit more Democrat every day (Gore and Bush each got 49% in 2000, but Kerry beat Bush 51%-48% in 2004). I think Gerlach is a very slight favorite against 2004 RAT nominee Lois Murphy, making Gerlach one of the most vulnerable GOP House incumbents of 2006.
As for Heather Wilson, she won with 55% and 54% in 2002 and 2004, respectively, against state senator Richard Romero, but this time faces an even tougher opponent in state AG Patricia Madrid. Gore beat Bush here 48%-47%, and Kerry beat Bush 51%-48%, so Madrid has a good base on which to build to try to topple Wilson. I think Wilson is a slight favorite, but once again she'll have to work her butt off to get reelected, and this time I doubt she'll get over 52%.
As for Shays, I don't think he's as vulnerable as many pundits claim. Sure, he was held to a 52%-48% margin in 2004 over Diane Farrell (who's running again this time) in a district that Kerry carried by 52%-46% (which is quite Republican by New England standards), but that was a presidential election, which sees much higher turnout and thus benefits the Democrats in CT. Remember how fellow RINO Nancy Johnson came within a whisker of losing in 1996? She rebounded smartly in 1998 and even when she was redistricted in with Jim Maloney in 2002 was able to win handily. I think the fact that RINO Governor Rell will coast to victory and will win huge margins in the CT-04 will help Shays win more comfortably in 2006 than he did in 2004. I'm predicting right here and now a 54%-46% victory for Shays.
Vito Fossella will be safe in 2006, as you said.
BTW, of the 4, only Gerlach and Wilson are moderates (both are squishy on abortion but not really pro-abort, fairly good on other issues). Fossella is quite conservative, and Shays is a liberal Republican (although his voting record is not quite as bad as his reputation would indicate).
I agree. The Illinois GOP was not neutral (contrary to repeated promises). I have a source confiming this.
Did the Combine promise to support Brady in 2008? That's the best explanation of his behavior I can find.
L
I emailed the author of the article asking whether he had talked to any IL Republicans before writing the article. He claimed he had, but refused to reveal their names, which to me is a sign he either didn't, or consulted a source of such obvious bias that he didn't dare reveal the name.
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