Posted on 03/18/2006 8:47:56 AM PST by NormsRevenge
The hurdles to an Imperial County desert airport are in sharper focus with a report on the feasibility of a maglev train from San Diego, placing costs at a minimum of $148 million a mile and one-way fares below the price of a tank of gas.
The 165-page consultants' report released yesterday presents a mixed bag to the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority, which had kept the Yuha Desert concept on its list of airport options while the analysis was conducted on the magnetic levitation train.
The cost of building the project – $15.2 billion to $18.5 billion for a line that would start near Miramar Marine Corps Air Station – is higher than previously assumed.
However, the consultants concluded that nearly half the air passengers who would use the airport would be willing to ride a maglev train and that fares could be set as low as $20 per one-way trip to cover operations and maintenance.
Now the airport authority can consider how the concept stacks up against its other options and how it might go over with the region's air travelers, visitors and the airline industry.
“I think this was the last bit of information that we needed,” said Paul Nieto, chairman of the airport authority's Strategic Planning Committee.
Nieto, who has been skeptical of the Imperial County option, said the report holds “troublesome” implications for travel time to a regional airport and the threat that many air travelers, including North County residents, would opt for a drive to Orange County or Los Angeles County.
But Mary Teresa Sessom, the mayor of Lemon Grove and another board appointee, said the report has enough good news and bad news to leave the agency pretty much where it was before.
“Holy cow, this is going to be a tough decision,” said Sessom, who believes opposition from the Marine Corps and Navy to joint civilian-military use makes the agency's Miramar, North Island and Camp Pendleton proposals infeasible.
The $400,000 study by HNTB, a transportation consulting firm, was prepared for the San Diego Association of Governments using a federal transportation appropriation and contributions from Imperial County and SANDAG itself.
The information will be presented to the SANDAG board of directors Friday and to Nieto's committee three days later. Airport agency board members heard a preliminary account of the report's findings Monday.
Joseph W. Craver, chairman of the authority board, said he doubts the committee will make any snap decisions on Imperial County.
With most of the technical analysis already completed, Sessom said, there's no reason to eliminate the desert site as a finalist.
“Right now it looks like a long shot for us,” Sessom said. “I think the Marines are an even longer shot.”
Maglev trains use electromagnetics attached to the underside of a train and propulsion from electrical conductors on a guideway.
The world's first commercial maglev line, from Shanghai, China, to Pudong Airport about 19 miles away, achieves a top speed of 267 mph. Maglev projects are being studied for Pittsburgh, Pa.; the Baltimore-to-Washington, D.C., corridor; and Las Vegas to Primm, Nev.
The consultants on the Imperial County proposal were operating under an accelerated timeline to meet the airport authority's deadline for a decision, and they considered a variety of routes and curvatures. Costs rise or fall with the amount of tunneling – which increases speed – as opposed to elevated guideways and high-column bridges.
The cost of a 93-mile maglev train from Miramar to Imperial along the Interstate 8 corridor was estimated at $16.1 billion to $18.5 billion, depending on speed. A peer review panel that reviewed the consultants' work and met by videoconference set the figures at $15.2 billion to $17.1 billion, with the cost of the maglev guideway alone placed at $148.1 million a mile or more, in addition to trains, stations and other costs.
The Miramar area was proposed for a maglev depot because it is projected as the future “centroid,” or center of mass, of San Diego County's population. Qualcomm Stadium and downtown's Santa Fe Depot also were studied, as were alignments along the state Route 94 corridor and the existing San Diego & Arizona Eastern railway, which goes into Mexico.
The consultants characterized the route as challenging because of the multiple peaks and valleys along the way.
At least 18 tunnels, from 2,000 feet to nearly 3½ miles in length, and 17 bridge structures, from 2,000 feet to 3 miles – would be needed “to maximize speed and maintain operational efficiency,” HNTB said.
Because of the curves and grades, average speed would be limited to about 163 mph for a travel time of about 30 minutes. It would require 10 train sets, each with seven 470-seat cars per train and one baggage car, traveling 10 to 20 minutes apart.
A nearly all-tunnel concept topped the price list at $25.7 billion, or more than six times the projected cost of building the airport itself.
The consultants concluded fares of $20 per one-way trip could be enough to cover operating and maintenance costs for the maglev.
Joe Maruca, an Imperial County supervisor, said he was prepared to see “big numbers” for costs in the report, although “we didn't know (they were) that big.”
However, he added: “I simply don't see where San Diego is going to go for their airport. That's why we got into it.”
..the cost of the maglev guideway alone placed at $148.1 million a mile or more, in addition to trains, stations and other costs..
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Maglev is cool but at that price per mile it's not really suitable for long stretches.
These folks planning mass transit, etc for 20+ yrs in the future...
what are their population, etc assumptions ?
We're running out of elect, & H2O
add govt. finances to the mix & we can't expect huge (legal) population increases as in past.
Calif politics will foul everything for the next 10 yrs.
After that, it's anybody's guess.
Why build a mag lev to nowhere ?
15 - 20 billion? No problem! Jessie will get it from FEMA for a small fee!
And we all know how often public works projects of this type blow their budgets.
Somebody tell WillieGreen.
????
Why the hell??
Then build the new airport where it's most convenient to the population, not out in the desert where nobody wants to live or depart from.
Oh, and BTW. Did these consultants factor in the additional runway length needed to get a 767 off the ground in dry air at 110 degrees?
Too freakin' hot!
Theoretically, I am not opposed to the idea of mass transit, but they
1) Rarely make it cost-effective
2) Rarely make it where it genuinely serves the working public and makes their commuting easier/less expensive
The yearly interest service on that ($1B?) is probably only slightly more than it would cost to send individual taxis to take twenty million people one per taxi from their homes to the airport.
Such a service could start tomorrow of course, and would also of course be an outrageous waste of public money.
I like our airport just fine the way it is. Nice and simple.
Except for that wand thingy. And taking your shoes off.
The price of anything is going to skyrocket once you start tunneling through mountain ranges.
I may be a rabid Maglev advocate, but I don't know if this specific route would be high on my priority list.
Granted, San Diego IS geographicly boxed in.
There's not much room for population growth unless you head east into the desert.
But that presents a whole host of other problems, like where is the water going to come from???
It's JMHO, but I think Kalifornia would get more bang for the buck if they initially constructed Maglev to service existing population centers. Perhaps a N-S route that connects San Diego and LA airports. Help alleviate both highway traffic and puddle-jummper commuter traffic at the airports.
Lindbergh Field is pretty squeezed where it's at, the
Navy doesn't want to part with North Island.. The Marines even offered to relocate the Recruit Depot,, I like local airports, but as the population grows.. there may not be much choice .. the question is who pays for it.
I hear ya on wand and shoes... make sure ya don't use lots of foot powder before ya fly and smile.
The next terrorist attack will put all this daydreaming on the back burner for a long long time.
":^/
I know Lindbergh Field won't last, but I sure love it.
Except for that LAME painting of Charles Lindbergh on the side of that big building nearby.
It's the most goofus thing, him standing there all stoopy in that old pilot suit and flappy cap, holding an airplane like some little kid.
My family's been in San Diego since 1959. And the airport debate's been going on just about that long. Forget it -- it'll never happen.
As much as I'm a technology advocate and welcome maglev use, there's *no* *way* it's appropriate here. The cost is beyond fantastic!
It would make more sense to use eminent domain to buy up land more conveniently located. There's still a lot of undeveloped area in the south county.
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