Baghdad Tet - How the bad guys can win.

NRO ^ | March 15, 2006 | James S. Robbins

[neverdem]

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March 15, 2006,

7:41 a.m.

Baghdad Tet

How the bad guys can win.

It is a scenario reminiscent of the Trojan Horse. Iraq’s Interior Minister Bayan Jabr revealed that Iraqi internal security had broken up a plot to place 421 al Qaeda fighters as guards controlling access to Baghdad’s International or “Green” Zone. Once in position, the terrorists planned to storm the U.S. and British embassies, take hostages, and wreak havoc. They were “one bureaucrat’s signature away” from implementing the plan when it was uncovered. Imagine if the aforementioned pen pusher had been more Type A? Luckily, the wheels of Iraq’s bureaucracy move as slowly as our own.

This is one of the most dangerous terrorist plots in recent memory, one that had a chance of making a strategic impact. A surprise attack by 400 fanatics (or likely more when including the fighters in disguise they would have admitted to the zone just prior to the attack) could not help but generate mayhem. They might have taken some hostages, potentially high-ranking individuals. Of course, the counterattack would be instantaneous and overwhelming, and few of the enemy would survive. Nevertheless, by then they would have achieved their objective; not to defeat Coalition forces, but to seize and hold the only ground they can command, the attention of the global mass media.

Imagine news coverage of al Qaeda fighters in the American embassy. The story line would be irresistible — Tet Offensive, the Sequel. The press is already fixated on comparing the Iraq war to Vietnam, despite the numerous and significant differences. An attack like this, a surprise urban guerilla assault on a key symbol of American power, would immediately be cast as a replay of the January 31, 1968, Viet Cong attack on the U.S. embassy in Saigon.

Then, 19 VC sappers blew a hole in the wall surrounding the embassy grounds and shot down the guards inside the gate. A sharp firefight ensued, and enemy forces failed to occupy the embassy proper; but early erroneous reports, relayed by Asoociated Press reporter Peter Arnett, credited the VC with taking the first floor of the building. Moreover, while the attackers had been either killed or captured within hours of the assault, film of the attack ran and reran on network news programs, giving the impression of a much more significant action. Furthermore, the press quickly credited the enemy with a “psychological victory,” even though they had failed even to come close to meeting their military objectives. In this respect, the Embassy attack was a microcosm of the entire Tet Offensive.

The current crop of terrorists well understand the Tet dynamic. Al Qaeda has frequently made mention of Vietnam as a model for the type of victory they are seeking, a blow to the American will that results in demoralization at home and withdrawal of the troops. In the same vein, they also make mention of Mogadishu 1993 and Beirut 1983. Prussian military theorist Karl von Clausewitz famously posited a “trinity” essential for the successful prosecution of war — synchronization between three necessary elements; the fighting forces, the political leadership, and the national will. The terrorists realize they cannot defeat our military, nor sway our (current) leaders, so they seek to strike at our only vulnerability, our national commitment to continue to prosecute the struggle.

Osama bin Laden once wrote, “It is obvious that the media war in this century is one of the strongest methods; in fact, its share may reach 90 percent of the total preparation for battles.” Reporters, who seek to package stories using preexistent themes in order to give instant (and often erroneous) context to events, are particularly susceptible to terrorist manipulation. Even a VC-sized attack on the Baghdad embassy would be sufficient to engage the Tet analogy, particularly if the terrorists coupled it with a media campaign that explicitly made the comparison. Given the already softening public support for the war effort, an upcoming midterm election, and a wounded White House, the political impact would be far out of proportion to the purely military significance of the action. But of course that is the outcome that terrorists usually seek.

We are fortunate that the Iraqis were able to break up this plot before it was executed. However, it demonstrates that the terrorists have correctly diagnosed what they must do to make their attacks strategically significant. We may not be so lucky next time. An embassy assault would be perfect fodder for the press. The story writes itself. And it does not have a happy ending.

— James S. Robbins is senior fellow in national-security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, a trustee for the Leaders for Liberty Foundation, and author of the forthcoming Last in Their Class: Custer, Picket and the Goats of West Point. Robbins is also an NRO contributor.

	http://www.nationalreview.com/robbins/robbins200603150741.asp

[GSlob]

Well, how many of these 400+ excremists have been scooped up? At least some of those on the inside who were involved have been removed from circulation. Enemy personnel loss on the scale of few hundred at one sweep would be a major success by any account.

[Smokin' Joe]

NO surprise. Much of the opposition has been running out of the vietnam playbook, especially here at home. I would hope that the American people have learned something of the truth about Tet, that afterwards the VC were effectively done, and that it was a significant military victory for our forces.

Of course, with the dinomedia trying to make the President look like Nixon (right up to and including their unabashed hate of him), and pulling everything from the protest circuit onward even to rumbles about impeachment, they would probably jump on the opportunity to give a war away again.

It is up to us to not let them. We are the new variable in the equation.

[jmc1969]

Zarqawi has been incredibly good at playing our media, but you can only get played if you want to.

[Heatseeker]

Well said. Sometimes the fine line between willing stooge and ally is no line at all.

[shining_city]

> Zarqawi has been incredibly good at playing our media,
> but you can only get played if you want to.

Well said.

[Dad yer funny]

bookmk ping , and thanks for the good post Joe

[William Tell]

From the article: They were “one bureaucrat’s signature away” from implementing the plan when it was uncovered.

This assessment is exactly what we would want the enemy to believe, especially if it was not true. One key to US successes in Iraq is an intelligence operation that can infiltrate our enemies. If this has happened, I don't expect to hear about it. But I would expect to see the enemy's plans disrupted apparently by chance.

Let's wait and see if there are future indications that we are "just getting lucky".

[OPS4]

The problem is that the borders of syria and Iran are full of these radicals ready to die for the cause.

Intel is tough in this situation, knowing the good guys from the bad.

My hats off to this exercise in rounding up this group, but vigilance is 24/7, in that country, as well as right here at home.

We cannot let our guard down for a second.

Ops4 God Bless America!

[Brad from Tennessee]

Tet is the Chinese Lunar New Year. It is not widely celebrated in Iraq.

[PresidentFelon]

Zarqawi and Zwahiri have made a fatal mistake....killing Muslims indiscriminately. This has brought home the fact that Muslims can get blown to smithereens just like Jews and Americans can. Several Fatwah's have been issued in Jordan and Iraq urging the killing of both these individuals.

One of the very good unintended consequences of this war is the desperation of the terrorists has caused them to turn Arab opinion, at least significantly, against terrorism as the means to an end. Sensible Muslims across the continent are horrified at the tactics these murderous thugs employ, and certainly do not want to live under that type of regime themselves.

Some press outlets are reporting that Americans are now being warmly embraced in most corners of Iraq for two reasons; The citizens fear the militias and want the Americans to protect them and, they have grown respectful of the Americans after experiencing and realizing the innocuous nature of our current occupation. In other words, they know we just want to help them get on their feet and will leave ASAP like we always said we would.

Zarqawi is not playing the media as well as the media is using him to further impugn the President, just as one should expect.


Freegards,

PresidentFelon

[Wombat101]

The author, while making some very good points, ignores the ultimate results of Tet;

1. The US Military won. Tet brought the Viet Cong into the open where they were annihilated, the very situation Westmoreland had sought for years,
2. The US Press spun the Tet offensive as a defeat because they know nothing of war and are even less inclined to find out,
3. The Johnson administration viewed a military victory in terms of public relations, not as it was: we may have won, but there were pictures of the US Embassy being fought over, in the heart of Saigon, and there were street executions being carried out by our allies. This LOOKS bad.

Add to this the simple inertia and incompetence at the highest levels of th US military and government, and the possibility of using the Tet victory to begin the process of attaining total victory, died at birth.

Four hundred "insurgents" within the Iraqi security apparatus sounds bad (heck it is bad), but it is NOT necessarily fatal. A government which abandons it's policy in the face of unfair, politically-motivated criticism and which is more interested in appearances, rather than results, is.

I'm not going to sit here and follow the line that Iraq is a text-book example of good policy, because it's obvious it isn't. However, some of these problems can be corrected and the mission, at least, partially rescued.

However we have to stop viewing Iraq through the lens of Vietnam, which is the lens of defeat.

[zip]

General Giap wrote a book in 1973 stating that they lost 50,000 VC in th Tet Offensive and were looking for a way to "save face" and sign a truce when they realized that Hanoi Jane et al had captured the American MSM and knew that he could wait out the US resolve. He was right, the pinkos sold us down the tubes. As Mr Berra said "It's de ju vu all over again."

[goarmy]

"The US Press spun the Tet offensive as a defeat because they know nothing of war and are even less inclined to find out..."

Roger that. Also, we have a bunch of Walter Cronkite-wannabes at every turn of the channel.

[Lejes Rimul]

I still don't unconditionally trust what Jabr says. The man is former Badr Brigade. It's in his and Iran's interests to jail Defense Ministry Sunnis, it makes the Shia more powerful.