Oberweis gains on Topinka!

St. Louis Post-Dispatch ^ | 3-12-06 | Kevin McDermott

[TitansAFC]

Topinka 36% Oberweis 25% Gidwitz 19% Brady 11% Martin 1% Undecided 8%

Oberweis closing on Topinka, poll finds SPRINGFIELD BUREAU 03/12/2006

Judy Topinka continues to pose the most serious threat to Gov. Blagojevich, still holding him under 50% support among likely voters, according to a new Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV poll.

But two weeks out from the GOP primary for governor, Topinka herself faces a growing threat from Jim Oberweis. Oberweis, a wealthy dairy owner, has made substantial gains against her in the past month.

The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Research 2000. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5%. The poll found that Topinka continues to lead over four other Republicans going into the March 21 primary, and that she is the only candidate within striking distance of Blagojevich.

"There's no question Blagojevich is vulnerable. He's under 50%, that's the bottom line," said the head of Research 2000. "If Topinka rides out this storm, it could be a very interesting general election."

But the primary may be a rougher storm for Topinka than it previously appeared. In a five-way race, the poll found Topinka is still comfortably ahead of second-place candidate Oberweis, by 36% to 25%. But that lead has shrunk significantly since early February, when a Chicago Tribune poll put Topinka ahead of Oberweis 38% to 17%.

Topinka is campaigning as a fiscal conservative/social moderate, traditionally the most successful combination for Republican candidates in Illinois general elections - though hard-right conservatives such as Oberweis have often found success in GOP primaries.

"It's tighter than it was, which you would expect, given the money that Oberweis...(has) spent," said Kent Redfield, political expert (U of I Springfield).

"She's certainly in a good position, still. If the dynamics don't change dramatically, she's going to win."

[TitansAFC]

The St.Louis Post-Dispatch is THE downstate paper for Illinois. They have only 8% undecided, which is apparently about what the Tribune poll is going to say are the remaining undecideds, also. Allegedly, the Tribune poll and CBS polls have the gap closing between Topika and Oberweis even MORE. I'll post them if they ever actually PUBLISH the damn polls and stop just talking about it on radio and television. Please follow suit also, and if you IL voters see any other polls - let us see them ASAP!!! We need the info as soon as it is available.

Also, remember that Topinka will be getting crossover vote from the Democrats, as several unions which endorsed Blagojevuch last time have endorse Topinka in 2006 (Construction, Concrete Workers, Truckers to name a few).

Hold you breath guys; it's going to be an interesting ride. Any chance I can convince some of you to consider voting for Oberweis on the 21st? Even if you have to hold your nose to do so?

Let's stop TOPINKA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Theodore R.]

Are the other candidates "conservatives" who are splitting the conservative vote with Oberweiss? That often happens in Midwestern states, leading to liberal Republican nominees.

[TitansAFC]

Ping for some Illinois voters.

[TitansAFC]

Brady is the "Conservative" who fits your description. He's a great guy, but yes he'll probably play spoiler for Oberweis and put Topinka on the ballot.

[upchuck]

Topinko, the UBER RINO.

Let's pray for her defeat.

[TitansAFC]

Amen.

[JohnnyZ]

Oberweis said he thinks pro-lifers = the Taliban

He's as much a RINO as Topinka, but he decided it's easier to compete in primaries pretending to be conservative.

[neocon1984]

Oberweis and Brady are both relatively conservative. Gidwitz is a liberal. Did you notice that Oberweis (who earned his fortune) is described as wealthy, but not Gidwitz (who inherited the Helene Curtis fortune)?

Topinka is another George Ryan. If nominated, she will put the final nail in the coffin of the Illinois Republican Party. Maybe that's the only way it will change.

[Corvair]

Ok, I'm as conservative as they come and would love to see Bill Brady be our next governor but it is NOT going to happen. Neither is Oberweis or Gidwitz. Judy Baar is the only one who has the b**** to take on Blago and actually defeat him. I worked with Judy when she was a state senator and if she is anything, she is tough as nails. She doesn't pull any punches, says what she means and means what she says. Do I agree with her on the social issues. No. But the governor doesn't have that much to do with social issue legislation. She has won state-wide elections twice and can do it again. She will restore credibility to the governor's office and SHE WILL LIVE IN SPRINGFIELD in the Governor's Mansion.
I could go on and on but you get my drift.

[JohnnyZ]

I worked with Judy when she was a state senator and if she is anything, she is .....

This could be a fun game.

If Judy Baar Topinka is anything, she is ....

.... a socialist

.... a liberal

.... the surest ticket to completing the destruction of the Illinois GOP

Anyone else want to play?

[Graybeard58]

Any chance I can convince some of you to consider voting for Oberweis on the 21st? Even if you have to hold your nose to do so?

Hold my nose? Oberweis is my choice, no convincing needed.

[TitansAFC]

---"Oberweis said he thinks pro-lifers = the Taliban
He's as much a RINO as Topinka, but he decided it's easier to compete in primaries pretending to be conservative."---

Interesting twist on what he actually said, JonnhyZ, but not quite accurate. The Taliban quote that you take out-of-context from years ago has been addressed several times.

Oberweis has for the last four years been VOCALLY Pro-life and Pro-family. The only question anyone has had about his Pro-Life values came from five years ago because he publicly opined that we should be careful not to try and impose personal beliefs on others. He was always Pro-Life.

Abortion is probably my #1 issue, period. Oberweis has given no indication that he would legislate as anything other than a Pro-Life, Pro-Family Governor. He has NEVER given any indication of being Pro-Choice.

The alternative is Topinka. Which would you rather put forward?

[Graybeard58]

leading to liberal Republican nominees.

In Illinois you might as well leave off the word "liberal" and assume that if there is a republican nominee he/she is liberal. (with rare exceptions)

[Bernard]

I think you are right about that - Judy Baar will have to get blown out in the general election before the Illinois Republicans come to their senses and stop letting the liberal media select the candidate.

[TitansAFC]

---"Do I agree with her on the social issues. No. But the governor doesn't have that much to do with social issue legislation."---

Wrong. Not only do they have much to do with it, but Judy Baar has promised to be a liberal hero on social issues to make Rod Blagojevich look like a Conservative.

She has promised to keep in tact the executive order trumping the "Freedom of Conscience" Act, forcing people and organizations to give out aborticides against their religious beliefs. She has promised to be a huge warrior for the homosexual movement, has promised to be a champion of abortion rights, and won't take a no-tax pledge.

In a Topinka vs. Blagojevich matchup, there is nothing to be gained by electing Topinka, nothing.

[bcsco]

"Any chance I can convince some of you to consider voting for Oberweis on the 21st?"

You've got my wife and I! It's going to be interesting.

[Richard from IL]

I agree that we must defeat JBT. She's the combine's choice and would solidify their hold on the party. On the other hand, if either Oberweis or Gidwitz wins, heads would roll among the party leaders.

The poll has only 36% voting for the two conservative candidates. I wonder if conservatives were undersampled in the poll.

[TitansAFC]

---"The poll has only 36% voting for the two conservative candidates. I wonder if conservatives were undersampled in the poll."---

Unlikely. We actually do not have all the most Conservative Republicans in this state. Remember how Obama won even counties like DuPage over Keyes? Some Conservatives have endorsed Topinka for the sake of winning, like Joe Birkett. I would say that if more than 50% of registered Illinois Republicans were solid Conservatives, I'd be shocked. We have a lot of the gay GOP here, and the Pro-Choice GOP, etc.

Plus, remember that we're going to be invaded by union votes for Topinka. So the actual % number of Conservative in the Primary will be lower than its usual %.

We really need to pray that Judy doesn't win.

[Richard from IL]

JBT will lose the conservative base. Better a corrupt Blago than the liar RINO JBT (see Tom Roeser's blog about her lying about endorsing Fitzgerald).

[Theodore R.]

Now we know why ol' Everett Dirksen was so hesitant to take conservative positions on a regular basis when he was in the Senate. He lived in mortal fear of the liberals in both IL parties.