[ex-Texan]

The first flurry of increasing rate charge notices just went out in the mail to thousands of home owners. As this editorial suggests, more notices will be going out in the next few months. There is a blogging site (HousingBubble 2) that reports people are moving away from Florida's south coast. Hurricanes may have caused some people to throw in the towel. Mobile home parks are dangerous in 70 mph winds. Other are cashing out and moving north. High priced condos are being built with no buyers lining up to buy them. (Want to learn more?) Did you listen to Coast2Coast last night? Several guests said the U.S. may be looking at a very rough 2006.

[montag813]

Rates have barely budged in 2 years. I paid 7.875% in May 2000, and re-fi'ed at 5.9% a year ago. It is now 6.15%. Big whoop.

[Kokojmudd]

Did you listen to Coast2Coast last night? Several guests said the U.S. may be looking at a very rough 2006.

If you believe in the power of Art Bell's psychics have I got a deal for you! 10 acres of lush, fertile, "rain forest" in Pahrump, NV (if you climb the coconut tree you can see Art's triple wide and radio tower) and a mickey mouse mortgage to boot!

[pabianice]

I don't know about you, but "Pam" at "Galactic Lending Associates" sends me several emails a week telling me that I have "already been approved for up to $400,000!" if I transfer my mortgage to her company.

[Shalom Israel]

It'll-be-fun-to-watch-folks-eat-crow-when-it-bursts ping to self.

[Glenn]

My Realtor was begging me to take an ARM when I relocated to PA. It would allow me to buy more house then I wanted or needed. I took a fixed 15 year loan at a slightly higher rate, but there was no volatility with it. That made all the difference to me.

[ken5050]

BTTT..

[Steven W.]

you didn't have to be listening to Art Bell last night to know this is extremely depressing. Doomed, Doomed they say! The vibes were so intense the radio needn't have even been on ... walls echoed with the vibrations glistening off the metallic sheen of listener's tin foiled hats.

[upchuck]

"Besides the two ARMs, we also took out a home equity line on the Seventh Street house to put down a deposit on the Fifth Street house. There was no cash that we had in our pockets to put down on the Fifth Street house. All we had was our shining credit record. And the faith that the banks have in this real estate market that allows you to borrow 100 percent."

This guy needs to spend some time listening to Dave Ramsey on the radio. Dave made millions in real estate and then lost it all by doing the same dumb stuff this guy is promoting.

[Sally'sConcerns]

I don't listen to Coast to Coast. My only claim to fame is having been in mortgage banking starting back in the olden days when people were panic buying because rates were 15% and were rumored to be going up to 17% or more. There were the Step'ems, the Gip'ems, the EOM's, the ARM's with no caps and no limit on how often the loans could adjust.

I also saw the rush to refi at 13%, 12%, 11% and on down. Oh and not to mention seeing REO portfolio's increase because people got in over their heads.

Even after some rationality returned to the mortgage market I would have thought long and hard about financing with an ARM product with caps. One of the selling points for going with a 7/1/1 ARM was it being a great deal if one was only going to be in the property for a few years. Even then things change; property values go down, financial situations change, people stay in the house longer than a few years, etc.

Now there are interest only loans, 100% financing and other creative financing. No thanks!

Give me a fixed rate mortgage with enough house to live comfortably and be able to double up my payments if I choose to where I can get it paid off early.

I'm glad I retired early and haven't had to deal with the latest wave of creative financing because I don't think my conscience would have allowed me to close those loans.

[q_an_a]

the folks who write these articles must have stayed home during the various economic lessons in college. What builders will do to sell homes is make them smaller and use less land; this will make the costs affordable and home owners will be happy with 1800 sq ft instead of 2500 sq ft. The mortage will be a little higher, but still within the budget of most two income families.

[GOPJ]

Lots of boomers are going to retire in two years - the start of a real flood.

And the first wave will be headed here - to Florida and the rest of the Suncoast. Sorry, I'll keep my bets on Florida. Run if you want to, but Florida's the future.

[aquila48]

"The best-case scenario for the future, the one from the real estate agents, is that prices will level out to single-digit appreciation rates.

Assuming that scenario, some would-be investors -- those who took out highly leveraged loans with extremely low payment options -- could soon find themselves owing more on a house than it is worth."

This nonsequitor is where I stopped reading - whatever else this guy is going to say ain't going to be worth the paper it isn't written on.

[OKIEDOC]

Back in 1973 I invested in several homes on one acre tracks.

Interest rates jumped a measly 2% and it took nearly a year to sell them.

I am reading that here in San Diego housing sales dropped a little over 13%.

I look for sales to take a tumble due to the economic marginal propensity to consume kicking in.

Salaries of the average two income families are not keeping up with the rise in prices.

They have some new condos just down the street and they are advertised at starting prices of $399,000 plus for a small one bedroom and $679,000 for something just a tad bigger.

Thats absolutely ridiculer's.

I don't think even if the economy stays good that real estate can maintain their present sales prices.

All the foolish risk takers have sunk money in to their money pit and can't get out.

Just my opinion.

[bigsigh]

Here's what my wife and I (loan brokers) have noticed since July.

No more 100% loans. And 90% is getting rare. Lenders will do 80/20 if your fico is over 680.

We like the 80% loan and refis.

I ask my clients if they can pay the 30 year conventional payment if the rate goes up 2 points.

For interest only we have some 5-10 year fixed loans.

We're getting some folks who are refying their 2-3 year option ARMs after 2 or 3 years. Most are okay.

The bigger problem is if the market drops significantly and then you need to refi. So far the rate of appreciation is down. Some analysts say we are 20-34% overpriced. Others say the population will keep demand high. We have 4 houses all in socal. 2 below market average. Not worried about the low end. Renters are coming in droves.

[Sunnyflorida]

"people are moving away Florida's south coast. "

This is just plane WRONG. Real Estate price growth may have moderated a bit after the BOOM (3x) post Charley, but good luck if you EVER think you will see 2003 prices again!!!

[HamiltonJay]