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Who Lost Nepal?
WSJ ^ | Dec 21, 2005 | Robert Kaplan

Posted on 12/24/2005 12:39:03 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe

Nepal, sandwiched between the two rising economic and demographic behemoths of the age—China and India—could be the first country since the fall of the Berlin Wall where communists emerge triumphant. If the Bush administration does not act decisively, that's what might happen. The administration should not take solace in the flurry of negotiations between the Maoist insurgents (who control most of the hinterlands) and the country's political parties in Kathmandu, which could undermine the last vestige of legitimate royal authority while further strengthening the insurgents.

By canceling Special Forces training missions to the besieged Royal Nepalese Army, and with the possibility of lethal cuts of American aid to the local military, the administration, along with Washington, has bought into popular abstractions about how to best implant democracy while ignoring the facts on the ground.

Nepal is fast becoming a replay of both Cambodia in the mid-1970s and El Salvador a decade later. In Cambodia, the monstrous Khmer Rouge were threatening the capital of Phnom Penh, home to a pathetically undemocratic yet legitimate regime to which a Democratic Congress had cut off aid—a result of the Watergate-inflicted weakness of the Nixon administration. In El Salvador, murderous right-wing forces that nevertheless represented a legitimate state were pitted against murderous left-wing ones that represented the geopolitical ambitions of the Soviet Union and Cuba. Though the media emphasized the atrocities of the right wing, the Reagan administration had little choice but to work with them. Eventually, the right wing in El Salvador, with the help of a small number of Army Special Forces trainers, won the day. And in the years that followed the Salvadoran state and military were reformed.

(Excerpt) Read more at samudaya.org ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: communism; india; maoists; nepal
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"The Bush administration wants India to step up to the plate in Nepal. But India is itself conflicted about the Nepalese situation. Even if the Indian government wants to weaken the Maoists, left-wing parties within the Byzantine political firmament of New Delhi sympathize with them, and have the means of assistance across a porous border. While India does not want to see throngs of refugees from a Maoist Nepal stampede into its already unstable state of Bihar, India also enjoys the fact of a weak, divided client regime next door."
1 posted on 12/24/2005 12:39:04 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe
...a pathetically undemocratic yet legitimate regime to which a Democratic Congress had cut off aid—a result of the Watergate-inflicted weakness of the Nixon administration.

Ancient history time (and OT), but the whole final chapter of the war in SEA wasn't the result of weakness on Nixon's part so much as because he had lost all interest in trying to win it: by 1972, he was just trying not to be the one who lost it. The Democrats called the game as being useless and I think they were right.

Yes, we abandoned our allies to their fate, but they were abandoned by Nixon as much as by the Democrats. You had to be there, at the end, to know how peculiar our effort had gotten.

2 posted on 12/24/2005 12:59:30 PM PST by Grut
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Nepal--isn't that the place where the prince killed his entire family? Isn't this the place where a dingbat king threw out missionaries on a whim, and invited a cult leaders church into the country during the 1980's?


3 posted on 12/24/2005 1:03:04 PM PST by sully777 (What Would Brian Boitano Do?)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

I can tell you that the west lost Nepal over 25 years ago. I lived in Nepal at that time for more than a year and a half. During that time my wife and I would walk the streets of Kathmandu and see all the Maoist literature stands in the city. There was literature of every communist stripe you could imagine. From contacts I had that went to the university there, the communists were very active on campus as well. So, what we are seeing now is the fruit of a long term strategy.


4 posted on 12/24/2005 1:16:28 PM PST by Madam Theophilus
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To: Tailgunner Joe; Gengis Khan; familyop

America should stop pampering the ChiComs with the MFN status if it wants to reduce Chinese influence in Asia and the world. The Chinese are using American money to expand their army and create puppet regimes. The proof? Many Chinese firms that supply goods to WalMart are eventually owned by PLA generals (who direct the profits from trade with the USA back into their military).

You know this, Tailgunner Joe and yet you persist in your India basing. Do you want to blame India for America's pampering of the ChiComs/PLA too?


5 posted on 12/24/2005 1:18:00 PM PST by indcons (Merry Christmas FReepers)
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To: Madam Theophilus

Would you happen to know the status of private property ownership in Nepal? Is it mostly shantytown?


6 posted on 12/24/2005 1:23:10 PM PST by RightWhale (pas de lieu, Rhone que nous)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Yeah, I've been thinking about going there...


7 posted on 12/24/2005 1:32:10 PM PST by billorites (freepo ergo sum)
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To: indcons

I am against trade with Communist China.


8 posted on 12/24/2005 1:38:28 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: Tailgunner Joe

Great...if only we could convince others about the dangers of trad with China!! I am pro-free trade too but free trade cannot come at the expense of survival, humanity, and common sense.

Merry Christmas


10 posted on 12/24/2005 1:40:29 PM PST by indcons (Merry Christmas FReepers)
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To: Joseph_CutlerUSA

Sounds like Nepal has a problem.



Naturally the author, since we are now leaving Iraq, wants it to be our problem. We will start seeing a lot of this.


11 posted on 12/24/2005 1:41:33 PM PST by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: sauropod

mark


12 posted on 12/24/2005 1:44:14 PM PST by sauropod (Walk with the King today and be a blessing.)
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To: edcoil

I've been trying, but I can't see how Nepal, whether it goes commie or not, important to the national security of the US. It's hardly what you would call strategically located.

It's sandwiched between the two most populous countries in the world, both of which are becoming more powerful all the time. It is isolated from China by the highest mountains in the world and from India by flat land. Seems like Nepal is, and should be, India's concern, not ours.


13 posted on 12/24/2005 1:49:09 PM PST by Restorer
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To: Restorer

True, India should be concerned, but they seem to be more interested in interfering with Nepal's internal politics than with their own national security.


14 posted on 12/24/2005 1:54:26 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Restorer

India's lost Nepal already, seems like. Its like the US 'losing' Canada, I guess. Whatever you do, whatever your best intentions, you're way too big to ever be popular there.


15 posted on 12/24/2005 2:04:21 PM PST by voletti (Where there is no justice, there is only revenge.)
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To: indcons; injin; sagar; minus_273; Fedora
“NEPAL’S DOWNWARD SPIRAL”: Senator Patrick Leahy

"Despite these difficulties and uncertainties, it is clear that the King has failed to provide the leadership to build bridges with the country’s democratic forces and develop a workable plan. It is also clear that efforts by the international community, including the United States, to appeal to the King to start such a process, have failed. The Bush Administration should apply whatever pressure it can, including denying U.S. visas to Nepali officials and their families.

"With few options and no guarantees, Nepal’s hour of reckoning is approaching. There is a growing possibility that the King’s obstinacy and unpopularity will trigger massive civil unrest, shootings and arrests of many more civilians by soldiers and police, Nepalâ??s further isolation, and perhaps the end of the monarchy itself.

"Only the army has the ability to convince the King to abandon his imperial ambitions, but time is running out. The army’s chief of staff, General Pyar Jung Thapa, was privileged to receive training at the Army War College and he has participated in other U.S. military training programs. He has led Nepali troops in UN peacekeeping missions. He knows, or he should have learned, that the function of a modern, professional military is to protect the rights and security of the people, not the privileges of a dictator who has squandered the moral authority of his office. It is not only in the interests of Nepal, but in the army’s long term self interest, to show real leadership at this critical time.

"The United States should do everything possible to encourage the army to announce its own ceasefire, to accept international observers as the Maoists have said they would do, and to support a broadly inclusive political dialogue with or without the participation of the palace."

16 posted on 12/24/2005 2:05:43 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Restorer
I've been trying, but I can't see how Nepal, whether it goes commie or not, important to the national security of the US

You'd be happy with the Chinese having Gurkhas?
17 posted on 12/24/2005 2:10:07 PM PST by English Nationalist
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To: English Nationalist

You're from the UK....you know who the Gurkhas are :)

After all, the British Army camps in Nepal to recruit them each year. I once read an article in which an IRA member was quoted saying that the most frightening thing he experienced during a riot was the sight of Gurkhas marching towards him while tapping their batons in unison.


18 posted on 12/24/2005 2:16:27 PM PST by indcons (Merry Christmas FReepers)
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To: indcons
Maybe you would be interested in this article by the same author, Robert D. Kaplan: How We Would Fight China

Here is the FR thread: HOW WE WOULD FIGHT CHINA

19 posted on 12/24/2005 2:20:13 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Thanks...will do.


20 posted on 12/24/2005 2:23:24 PM PST by indcons (Merry Christmas FReepers)
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