Experts Doubt Bird Flu Tallies From China and Elsewhere

NY Times ^ | December 2, 2005 | ELISABETH ROSENTHAL

[neverdem]

ROME, Nov. 30 - With China reporting its first two human deaths from bird flu, international health specialists are warning that current tallies may greatly underestimate the problem, there and elsewhere.

Scientists have long been mystified by the low number of cases in humans reported in China, which has such a severe bird flu problem that it recently announced plans to vaccinate 14.2 billion chickens, geese and ducks. Far smaller countries, with less severe bird flu outbreaks, have reported many more human cases.

A team from the World Health Organization has gone to China to help investigate the deaths of two women in eastern Anhui Province, a 24-year-old poultry worker on Nov. 10 and a 35-year-old farmer on Nov. 22.

Dick Thompson, a W.H.O. spokesman in Geneva, said last week that the health agency did not believe that China was hiding human bird flu cases the way it covered up the number of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003. But he said systems to diagnose a viruslike bird ailment were often poorly developed and underfinanced in the rural areas with the most cases.

"In some cases the surveillance system may not be there," he said.

"We're not nosing around," he added, "but we may be able to provide some technical expertise."

Vietnam has reported 91 cases of bird flu in humans, with 41 deaths, said Cao Duc Phat, the minister of agriculture, who presented new data last week to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. China, which has reported 24 outbreaks this year, has reported only three cases of infection in humans.

While bird flu is now an animal disease, one form of it, H5N1 influenza, can, in rare cases, infect humans who have had contact with sick birds, and it is often deadly. In...

[neverdem]

Ryan Pyle for The New York Times
Teams vaccinating birds in China against avian flu walked door to door recently in a county in Anhui Province. Some teams fail to wear protective masks or gloves, raising the risk of bird flu transmission to humans.

[Walkingfeather]

indonesia already believes it has mutated to the human to human variety because they have so many cases.

[Termite_Commander]

I posted a story yesterday where the speculation was that there have been at least two Human-to-human cases in Thailand, but I hadn't heard anything about Indonesia.

[Termite_Commander]

Man on far left: "So, doctor, see any bird flu that I can use this needle on?"

Man in center: "Nope."

[Post-Neolithic]

My guess is both sides of the aisle are doing their best to cover up the problem in China. If it were released that China had 10-100X or more, greater then the cases they are currently admitting to, it's economy would collapse overnight.

No telling what would happen here in the States since most of our manufacturing base has been gradually moved to China.

[theFIRMbss]

>My guess is both sides of the aisle are doing their best to cover up the problem in China

My guess is -- like SARS --
the numbers of deaths will be
exactly the same

as NORMAL numbers
of flu and pneumonia deaths.
Just media hyped.

[conservativecorner]

Has feared mutation of avian flu arrived? Doctors in Thailand, Indonesia see 1st signs of human-to-human spread.



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