Posted on 11/11/2005 2:36:41 AM PST by RWR8189
SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures slipped further below $58 a barrel Friday amid reports of rising supply and falling demand.
Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 9 cents to $57.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in electronic trading in Singapore. On Thursday, the contract fell to $57.80, the lowest level for the front-month contract since July 21.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data that showed natural gas in storage grew more than expected last week, surpassing a level that many analysts believe is necessary to meet winter demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that global oil demand growth in 2005 would be slightly lower than previously expected.
The reports gave momentum to a price decline already underway due to a moderation in gasoline demand and warmer-than-usual weather in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest, key markets for heating oil.
"We don't have any big demand right now. Heating is not upon us yet, cooling is behind us and the summer driving season is behind us," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Florida. "If you're going to have a soft spot, this is it."
Cordier said technical charts suggest that oil prices could fall to the mid-$50 range, before finding some support. Moreover, he said the downtrend was likely to be stopped in its tracks by late December, assuming normal winter temperatures.
The drop in the price of natural gas futures followed the release of Energy Department data showing that U.S. storage of natural gas grew last week to 3.2 trillion cubic feet - a level many analysts consider a crucial measure of adequate pre-winter supply.
The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2005 by 70,000 barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels per day. The agency also said that OPEC's production capacity could rise by 1.2 million barrels per day to 33 million barrels per day by the end of next year.
On Wednesday, the federal Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories rose 4.5 million barrels to 323.6 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4 from a week earlier. Crude stocks are about 13 percent higher than they were a year ago.
With energy prices falling despite the continued loss of output of oil, natural gas and gasoline in the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Cordier said it is a clear indication that the market is being driven by a dropoff in demand.
He added that demand should pick up again later in the year, assuming normal winter weather patterns.
| 11/11/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Unleaded Gasoline
| 11/11/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Heating Oil
| 11/11/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Natural Gas
| 11/11/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oh my God, the free market actually works!
A free market that is not prone to manipulation does indeed work.
Gasoline prices in our area are over a dollar less than their highs just about a month ago.
I blame George Bush!
< /tangentical rant>
Data website link?
Hooray! I paid $2.19 for gas Wednesday, but $2.44 for heating oil two weeks ago. (Boston area)
But I thought that natural gas was going up more than 50% for the winter? The media said so; surely, they can't be wrong?
Thanks! Saved me a search (bookmarked now)...
NO! We need government intervention!!! < /s >
Does anyone know how many barrels of oil Iraq is currently producing each day? Also, where are they shipping their oil? Lastly, have we been buying Libyan oil since we restored diplomatic relations?
Perhaps Congress ought to have hearings on oil prices every month? There are no coincidences. The same people who bid up prices for crude own the oil companies. Big Profiteering Mystery . . . Not!
Who would have thought that burning a few French cars would create so much less demand. They must have gotten really bad gas mileage.
If the dems aren't using the 'elderly' as political props they're using the 'children'.
$2.11 for regular unleaded here in PA.
I can't believe that this guy's trying to pass it off as basically seasonal variation. This time of year should *always* mean that winter's not on us yet, and cooling and summer driving are behind us.
Do they think we're ALL fools?
Sorry, but the weather at this time of the year is unusually warm throughout most of the country, thus delaying the start of the heating season. It is November 11th, and I live in Wisconsin and heat with natural gas. I have still not turned my heat on, and I know I'm not the only one. High temps here today and tomorrow are expected to be around 60 degrees.
Here in the Dallas Fort Worth area the biggest Natural Gas find in history is coming on line and is near plenty of pipeline, so no big cost to get it to market. This area know as the Barnett Shale holds 30 Trillion feet of gas. One recent well is generating 7 million feet a day. This site will drive the cost of gas down to $5.00. The price I am quoting was reported, in the Dallas Morning News, this month, as an estimate by the CEO of TXU.
Prices for gas declined by a dollar a gallon before any hearings were announced. Try again.
Blood for oil business must be kicking in.
Yeah, that's it!
(Sarcasm for those of you in Rio Linda)
The Left blaming President Bush --> 
<--Americans sick and tired of the whining
We have to thank 'global warming' for this, it's reduced our need for oil. Must be Bush's fault.
Then enroll in some Economics and Goverment courses.
but the rumblings were there - hearings, windfall profits tax, etc. these kinds of things are not the proper way to deal with a truly free market - but oil isn't such a market - its a oligopoly - so these practices are appropriate.
very true with regards to the natural gas market.
the flipside is also true - Bush ought to be out there taking credit for this - he could simply say that his EPA waivers on blended gasolines have smoothed out the market and caused prices to decline. its good spin.
We are now at the 200 day moving average, or "floor" for oil prices. See the latest demand projections at http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=26855
"The International Energy Agency Thursday poured cold water on talk of a slump in world oil demand, with new data pointing toward a resurgence in Chinese consumption and likely upward revisions to U.S. consumption data."
"The same people who bid up prices for crude own the oil companies."
I don't think that's true. I think the people most responsible for the run-up in oil prices are the day traders who every day buy and sell futures, trying to make a buck every day, never worrying about the fall out for the average Joe who needs to heat his house and fill his gas tank.
"On Wednesday, the federal Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories rose 4.5 million barrels to 323.6 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4 from a week earlier. Crude stocks are about 13 percent higher than they were a year ago."
---->
13% is HUGE! Anyone who is betting on higher oil prices is in a big heap of trouble. This market is going to continue to fall.
Amazingly enough, I believe that is just the start. My own "private polling" in my area indicates that everyone who is able to heat their home in some way other than oil and gas has geared up to do so. Based on that, I believe that the late Nov. oil figures will be extremely bearish for the market and the "experts" will be stunned by how elastic the demand for heating oil actually has become.
Personally, I'm burning coal this year and will use about a thousand gallons less oil for heating. I know many many others accomplishing major savings, too, in their own ways.
Thanks for the bump. I wonder when OPEC is going to cut back our supply?
My parents were all upset about the price of natural gas. They pretty much believe what they hear on the news, and were expecting high heating costs this winter. I tried to tell them to wait until it actually happens, but the press is pretty persuasive. We live in the Northeast, so heating prices are a big concern. It looks now like these predictions won't come to pass. My house is heated with electric, and that price has been very stable ever since we've been in this house (15 years).
Wait a minute. I didn't say that consumers' cost of heating oil and natural gas is not going to be high this winter. For most customers, that was purchased long ago on the commodities market, and the companies will have to charge enough to recoup their costs. I suspect many will eat a little of that, at least, and lower their profit margins a tad. People better expect that the cost per gallon of heating oil will be much higher (30%?), as will natural gas.
What I AM predicting is that far less heating oil and natural gas will be used this winter because many of their neighbors are finding alternatives to using so much, and that will cause the commodities market prices to collapse. There is noise about "support" for oil at the $55/bbl level. I predict that will be smashed through when the figures near late November are known. I further predict that OPEC will not reduce their production very much because now that they've see how people are so determined to reduce their oil consumption when prices are near 60, they will not want to further encourage that process.
I'm expecting oil to be in the 35-45/bbl area, and possibly a little lower, for most of the next couple years.
I knew you didn't say that; I guess I was assuming that would happen; being that inventories were higher than expected, and a large natural gas field is coming on line. I do like your prediction of 35-45/bbl. I'm reading Sowell's "Basic Economics", and just now starting to get the jist of all this....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.