Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[NautiNurse]

Per usual - do not post graphics >50K, animated graphics, or webcams. Please use common sense when posting graphics to this busy thread. Many of the host sites are overloaded.

Use links, please.

[NautiNurse]

New thread...

[NautiNurse]

New thread...

[quantim]

After Wilma passes through can we borrow your Governor for awhile?

[brytlea]

I'm beginning to think we aren't going to get much here in Delray. Yippee! However, we did get the panel shutters up today, just in case!
susie

[NautiNurse]

Fortunately the pattern has changed quite a bit. It will be difficult to get anything into the Gulf after Wilma until at least 5-10 days into November. By then, we should be running out of time for more. I think we could get 3 or 4 names deep into the Greek alphabet though.
On Wilma, I see some newer models are strengthening her up on the trip to FL. Depending on where we get full interaction with the trough... she could come in a bit stronger than anticipated.

Tell me more about the new models, please. Any change in landfall location?

[MonroeDNA]

TS Algore

[Diddle E. Squat]

More models (18Z runs):

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

[Termite_Commander]

Thanks for both the ping, and keeping these threads going.

[SE Mom]

We love our Jeb:) Funny thing- the gov of South Carolina was asked this week what his first steps in hurricane prep would be- he said "Call Jeb" first.

[Unknown Freeper]

I hope you get some rest this winter. Thanks again.

[kayak]

Although I seldom post on these threads, I follow them when I can. You have done a magnificent job with them! I recommend that we double your pay for this season ... ;-)

[NautiNurse]

the gov of South Carolina was asked this week what his first steps in hurricane prep would be- he said "Call Jeb" first.

Priceless!

[laz]

It looks to me like 19:45 on the visible floater loop shows the center very close to the northern coast, almost on it. If she still had a defined 30 nm eye, I think the northern eyewall would be well over water right now. Looks like she's accelerating and leaving Cancun behind. She'll be in the GOM soon.

[synbad600]

Here on the east coast, Vero Beach. Lot of folks boarding up, but other than that, not too crazy. No obscene lines at the gas stations or markets. Not yet, anyway.

[NautiNurse]

Glad to oblige

[NautiNurse]

I hope you get some rest this winter.

From your keyboard to God's lcd monitor...

[xcamel]

I don't think I'd be so quick to write off Alpha..

Interaction off the east coast of Florida could be very interesting, if not more trouble than might be forecasted at the moment.

[Guenevere]

Watching, waiting, wondering...

..We stay prepared around here, since the 4 hurricanes of last year.

We have lots of stored water, and practical supplies, batteries, etc.

We took pictures of the contents of our home for insurance purposes.

We've topped off the cars...and have meds handy.

We have finances in order ...to grab quickly.

We have canned stuff, soups, milk, stuff.

It's the tornadoes that worry me now....

..I've been through hurricanes, and the sounds will drive you crazy....

..but the tornadoes can come out of nowhere...suddenly.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

This is much worse than expected.

In the streets, office furniture and broken glass bobbed in water that sloshed between buildings. Residents watched the debris float by from upstairs balconies.

All of the laws of physics and bouyancy have been rescinded. Broken glass now floats! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051022/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurricane_wilma