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I'm a big FT supporter but I think Boortz is dancing with a hyena here.
1 posted on 09/15/2005 7:03:22 AM PDT by groanup
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To: groanup; Admin Moderator

Please delete if a dupe


2 posted on 09/15/2005 7:04:03 AM PDT by groanup (shred for Ian)
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To: groanup
He will either take some or the entire amount he had been withholding for federal income and payroll taxes and add it to your weekly check, or he will readjust your pay figures so that your entire paycheck will be equal to what you used to call "take home pay" before the FairTax. The employer may also decide to do a little of both. Either way, you can see that the amount of money you actually receive as pay – the amount you can put into your bank account – will not decrease, and may actually increase.

Ouch. Boortz is finally admitting what I've been saying all along. Gross pay under the so-called Fair tax is likely to go down. (The employer will base his decision on what to do on what the Federal Reserve does with the money supply.)

I wonder how Fair Tax proponents will react to this startling confession.

5 posted on 09/15/2005 7:09:17 AM PDT by SolidSupplySide
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To: groanup
You will suffer no decrease in real or net earnings

If I'm losing the amount that used to be withheld, which would take care of my tax liability normally, then get the same take-home, but with a big sales tax that I now have to pay, my effective pay has been slashed big time. In essence, you're still paying both taxes (and no chance for any refund on the lost 'withholding').

6 posted on 09/15/2005 7:11:29 AM PDT by atomicpossum (Replies should be as pedantic as possible. I love that so much.)
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To: groanup

The fair tax will never fly because it is a massive tax cut on high wage earners, speculators, and investors, which, to be revenue neutral, means it must be a massive tax increase on wage earners.

If you forego taxing interest, dividends, and capital gains, the money must be made up for somewhere, and the only somewhere is the full consumption of wages by low-end and middle workers, since high end wage earners rarely consume anything close to all of what they earn.


7 posted on 09/15/2005 7:14:15 AM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: groanup

Hmmm...

If we assume that the "average American" spends his entire paycheck on goods and services and also assume that "the fair tax" will increase the cost of what he buys by 22%, then the "average American" will need a pay-raise of 22% just to stay even.

How likely is THAT??


8 posted on 09/15/2005 7:17:01 AM PDT by pfony1
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To: A. Pole; dennisw; Willie Green; neutrino; ninenot
When the FairTax is implemented, and when business and personal income and payroll taxes disappear, your employer is going to have to make a decision. He will either take some or the entire amount he had been withholding for federal income and payroll taxes and add it to your weekly check, or he will readjust your pay figures so that your entire paycheck will be equal to what you used to call "take home pay" before the FairTax. The employer may also decide to do a little of both. Either way, you can see that the amount of money you actually receive as pay – the amount you can put into your bank account – will not decrease, and may actually increase.

Does anyone think corporations will not keep the money for themselves?

10 posted on 09/15/2005 7:32:40 AM PDT by raybbr
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To: Always Right; Your Nightmare; sitetest

FYI


11 posted on 09/15/2005 7:33:36 AM PDT by lewislynn (Status quo today is the result of eliminating the previous status quo. Be careful what you wish for)
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To: groanup
I'm a big FT supporter but I think Boortz is dancing with a hyena here.
Boortz is a laughing hyena...he's laughing at all you fools who bought into this phoney scam...How many books did you buy? How much money have you given the phoney cause? How many people have you ridiculed when they tried to tell you the truth?
12 posted on 09/15/2005 7:39:48 AM PDT by lewislynn (Status quo today is the result of eliminating the previous status quo. Be careful what you wish for)
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To: groanup
your employer is going to have to make a decision. He will either take some or the entire amount he had been withholding for federal income and payroll taxes and add it to your weekly check, or he will readjust your pay figures so that your entire paycheck will be equal to what you used to call "take home pay" before the FairTax. The employer may also decide to do a little of both.

Since a single living in an apartment has fewer deductions and therefore more tax withheld than a married person with a big mortgage, will it be up to the employer to decide who gets his pay cut more? (Sorry Joe, your pay cut is 30% while John's is only 10%. But if you get married I'll give you a 10% raise) What if I'm paying estimated taxes anyway, so I take the maximum number of withholding deductions at my main job? Does that mean I'll end up with a bigger gross after the sales tax than if I set up my taxes to get a big tax refund in April? Or is it more likely that the employers will just give the entire gross to the employees? Especially consider than many employees are under legal contracts for specific wages and there is nothing in the FairTax about voiding those contracts.

I'm glad that Boortz has finally admitted that you can't get both your current gross pay and have net prices including the sales tax stay the same. I've had some people get nasty with me here when I said the employer's embedded tax is only around 9% and there was no way that could jump to 23% based on just inefficiencies in tax collection.

Personally I would prefer a sales tax to the current income tax system. I just never believed that it would be painless and that my net purchasing power would be higher after the tax than before it.

15 posted on 09/15/2005 7:46:29 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (We need a strict constructionist - not someone who plays shadow puppet theatre with the Constitution)
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To: groanup
or he will readjust your pay figures so that your entire paycheck will be equal to what you used to call "take home pay" before the FairTax
Except what you used to call "take home pay" was called that not because you got to take it home but because taxes were paid...

After the Fairtax, your employer rips you off for your withholding, then the Fairtax rips you off when you spend what's left.

Gee, that doesn't sound anything like all the Fairtax promises I've been hearing, or what "the book" says.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA...what a bunch of fools...

16 posted on 09/15/2005 7:48:21 AM PDT by lewislynn (Status quo today is the result of eliminating the previous status quo. Be careful what you wish for)
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To: groanup

After being called a Liar and a Marxists 100 times in the last week by the fair taxers, Boortz comes clean with the truth.


17 posted on 09/15/2005 7:49:41 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: groanup
When the FairTax is implemented, and when business and personal income and payroll taxes disappear, your employer is going to have to make a decision.

A *crisis* will occur during the obligatory transition phase, and voila, two tax systems instead of one!!
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
Laugh now, while you can.
19 posted on 09/15/2005 7:56:15 AM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: groanup
We explained in the book that the FairTax plan was revenue neutral. By this we meant revenue neutral for everyone ... the government, businesses and individuals. You can't put more money in the pockets of one without taking money out of the pockets of another. The harsh reality is that politicians would not support the FairTax if it meant less revenue for the federal government; business leaders would not support the FairTax if it meant a decrease in corporate earnings and profits, and the people would most certainly not support the FairTax if it meant a decrease in their income.

The reason we have such a screwed up tax system is because of favors granted by Congress.

1. How will the so-called Fair Tax address that?

2. How can I be sure that there won't be an income test imposed in the years following the implementation of this Fair Tax?

3. Under ANY tax reform idea, some will be hurt. The author is hiding behind the 'fact' that the Fair Tax will be revenue-neutral. The plain fact is that the bottom 50% of the income tax returns filed pay only something like FIVE percent of the revenue. This Fair Tax might be 'revenue-neutral' for individuals as a class, but it sure won't be for individual cases.

Add how politicians tinker with the tax code YEARLY, this plan is nuts.

The only reform possible is a Dick Armey-style flat tax with a tax return filed on a postcard. And if we can't even get that passed, this Fair Tax won't stand a chance in h***.

25 posted on 09/15/2005 8:06:16 AM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: groanup
Boortz had better read this first

Top 11 Secrets of a National Retail Sales Tax Various | 6-10-05 | Always Right http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1420468/posts

28 posted on 09/15/2005 8:18:35 AM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: groanup

BTTT


29 posted on 09/15/2005 8:18:37 AM PDT by kellynla (U.S.M.C. 1st Battalion,5th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Div. Viet Nam 69&70 Semper Fi)
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To: All

An explanation of the assumptions made by Dr. Jorgenson and misrepresented (finally, he admitted it) by Boortz

Economist assume that there will be one of two outcome with the transition to a sales tax. They are:

In his study, Dr. Jorgenson made Assumption 2 - that take-home pay and consumer prices stay the same. This is not wrong, it is just one of the possible outcomes. What was wrong was how this was presented by Boortz and the FairTax supporters. They took the assumption that take-home pay would increase (from Assumption 1) and paired it with the assumption that consumer prices will stay the same (from Assumption 2). They mixed the best of both worlds and came up with a windfall, that take-home pay would increase while consumer prices stayed the same, that could not possibly happen. Much of the proported benefits of the FairTax come from this erroneous assumption made by Boortz and the FairTax supporters.

While Dr. Jorgenson's use of Assumption 2 was not wrong, most economists believe that, because wages are difficult to lower (economists call this "sticky wages"), Assumption 1 is the most likely outcome from a transition to a sales tax.

Below is a complilation of quotes from various economists (including, ironically, the authors of the FairTax bill) that explain these assumptions in greater detail:


Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues

by C. Alan Garner
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
in Economic Review - Second Quarter 2005

Wages and prices. Replacing the income tax with a flat tax poses smaller challenges for wage and price adjustment than either a national sales tax or a VAT. Because the structure of the flat tax is similar to the current income tax, large adjustments in consumer prices or wages would probably not be necessary After-tax and before-tax wages would be similar before and after the tax reform, and nominal prices would be roughly unchanged (Zodrow 2002).

A national sales tax or a VAT, in contrast, would require the average price of consumer goods and services to rise relative to production costs and wages.15 A national retail sales tax is the simplest case to understand because the tax is imposed entirely at the retail level. Consumers would pay a substantially higher price for goods and services after adding in sales taxes at a rate that could easily be 30 percent or higher. Because wages are a large fraction of production costs, the price paid by consumers would increase relative to the wage rate received by workers. However, in the case of a revenue-neutral tax reform, the decline in the income-related taxes paid by households would offset the rise in consumption taxes, leaving households with the means to purchase the higher-priced goods and services. Under a VAT, consumer prices would increase relative to wages because of taxes imposed at various stages in the production process rather than just the final retail sale.

An important question from the standpoint of short-run macroeconomic adjustment is how the increase in consumer prices relative to wages occurs. One possibility is that the after-tax consumer price level would rise by the full amount of the consumption tax while wages remain constant. Another possibility is the after-tax consumer price level would be constant while wages decrease. Most discussions of transitional tax-reform issues assume the first case.16 When a VAT has been introduced abroad, authorities typically permitted an upward adjustment in the after-tax consumer price level, although efforts were generally undertaken to ensure that this one-time adjustment did nor become a sustained inflationary process (Tait).

Alternatively, the necessary increase in consumer prices relative to wages could be accomplished by holding the price level constant and reducing the wage level. Many economist, however, believe that wages are "sticky" in the downward direction. Workers are reluctant to take a wage cut, and efforts to reduce the wage rate might cause many workers to leave their jobs. The result could be a large temporary increase in the unemployment rate and lower levels of spending and output. Gravelle cites simulations with large-scale econometric models that do not assume the economy always operates at full employment. In three of the four simulations cited, real output decreased initially in response to fundamental tax reform. Although other economists have criticized such models and might not accept their conclusions, the simulations emphasize the need for further research on the short-run employment and output effects of fundamental tax reform.

Moreover, replacing all federal income taxes with a national sales tax or VAT would require much larger price and wage adjustments than other countries experienced when adopting VATs. Foreign VAT rates have typically been no more than 10 percent because the countries kept other revenue sources, such as an income tax. In most cases, the country also eliminated other consumption-type taxes, which offset some of the upward price-level pressures. Thus, the price adjustments required by fundamental U.S. tax reform would be outside the range of historical experience.

 

  1. This discussion focuses on fundamental tax reform in which a national sales tax or VAT replaces all federal income and payroll taxes. The adjustment issues would be smaller if a low consumption-tax rate were enacted to replace a small part of the current tax system or to supplement existing revenue sources.
  2. The increase in consumer prices could account for part of the decline in the real value of existing assets during the transition to a consumption tax. Nominal assets such as bonds and bank accounts would lose real value as the price level rose. With no increase in consumer prices, the decline in the real value of existing assets would occur through other channels. For example, the decrease in wealth would fall on equity owners as corporations lost expected depreciation allowances and the prices of tax-free investment goods declined relative to taxable consumer goods and services (Zodrow 2002). In practice, the increase in the price of consumer goods and services relative to wages could occur through a combination of consumer price increases and nominal wage decreases.

Statement of Laurence J. Kotlikoff,

Professor of Economics, Boston University, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research

Testimony Before the House Committee on Ways and Means - Hearing on Fundamental Tax Reform
April 11, 2000

This sentence and the one preceding it assume the price level will rise with the adoption of the Fair Tax. If the Federal Reserve used its monetary policy to maintain the consumer price level, the adoption of the Fair Tax would entail a decline in the level of producer prices and, thus, the nominal wages and capital income received by productive factors.

Response to William Gale

by Dan Mastromarco and David Burton
[authors of the FairTax]
Memorandum, March 16, 1998

Federal income and payroll taxes either are or are not incorporated into the prices of goods and services. If they are embedded in prices, their removal will reduce prices. If they are not, then their removal will not reduce prices but instead returns to labor and capital will go up. If returns to labor go up, people will see their after-tax wages increase and asset values will increase since the present discounted value of the new, higher returns will be higher.

The replacement sales tax could be incident on the factors of production or it could be incident on consumers through higher prices. It cannot be both. If it is incident on the factors of production, then wages and the return to capital will fall but sales tax inclusive prices will not be any higher, on average, than they are today. If the sales tax is fully incident on consumers, then prices will increase by the amount of the sales tax but returns to labor and capital will be higher.

Criticism of the Sales Tax for Residential Real Estate Isn't Built on a Solid Foundation

by Dan R. Mastromarco and David R. Burton
[authors of the FairTax]
Tax Notes, June 29, 1998, p. 1779

Footnote #13: The degree to which after-tax wages will increase is a function of the incidence of both the sales tax and the repealed taxes. If the income tax and payroll taxes are incident on income recipients and the sales tax is incident on consumers, then after-tax wages and returns will go up quite considerably as will tax inclusive prices. If the sales tax is incident on the factors of production, then after-tax wages and the after-tax return to capital will not go up to any considerable degree (at first) but producer prices will fall and retail prices, even including the sales tax, will remain roughly comparable. The real purchasing power of wages will undoubtedly increase considerably over time because of a larger capital stock (increasing productivity), microeconomic efficiencies caused by a more efficient allocation of scarce resources, and higher productivity from lower compliance costs.

The Price Level

Switching to an indirect tax such as a valued-added tax (VAT) or national sales tax will probably cause a one-time jump in the price level, with no permanent change in the inflation rate. By contrast, any consumption-based tax that levies taxes directly on households will probably have little or no effect on the price level.

A VAT or sales tax is likely to boost the price level because each one collects the tax on labor income from the firm or retailer. That treatment represents a change from the current income tax system, which collects tax on labor income directly from the worker. Because the cost of labor to the firm would include the new tax, real compensation paid to workers would initially have to fall to match the value of their so-called "marginal product" and keep them fully employed.

Real compensation can fall in two ways: nominal compensation can drop or the price level can rise. What happens will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve. If it fixes the price level, nominal compensation will have to fall--an event that workers might accept because they would no longer have to pay income tax and hence would take home about the same pay as now. Most analysts note, however, that workers have resisted cuts in nominal compensation in the past. Those analysts expect that firms fearing morale problems or facing union contracts will hesitate to make such cuts. In that case, nominal compensation may fall slowly to its new level, leading to higher unemployment rates in the interim. To prevent that outcome, the Federal Reserve is expected to allow the price level to rise. For example, a VAT or sales tax of 10 percent would lead to a one-time jump of 10 percent in the price of consumer products.

Further price increases may ensue if compensation is indexed to inflation. In that case, the price rise will cause a corresponding rise in compensation, and real compensation will not drop enough to maintain full employment, requiring a further price rise--that is, a wage-price spiral. That problem occurred in the United Kingdom when it adopted a VAT in 1979, although the extent of indexing there was greater than it is in the United States.

Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office. (1997). The Economic Effects of Comprehensive Tax Reform. Washington DC: Government Printing Office.
Setting aside for a moment temporary inflexibilites in contracts for wages, bonds, and so forth (we address these later), whether ther overall level of prices changes or not does not materially affect this story.16 Even if prices do not rise at all, moving to a consumption tax would cause the purchasing power of both wages and existing wealth to decline by an average of 20 percent relative to a situation with no taxes. Nominal wages would be forced down because firms would be earning 20 percent less, after taxes, from the output produced by workers. The nominal value of existing capital assets - in the form of, for example, share prices - which constitute much of old wealth, would also decline because the output they produce provides 20 percent less in after-tax revenues.
  1. Whether in fact consumer prices would rise in the event of tax reform depends on the monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve Board.

Source: Slemrod, Joel and Jon Bakija, Taxing Ourselves: A Citizen's Guide to the Great Debate over Tax Reform, MIT Press: Cambridge, 2004.

Transition Costs and Macroeconomic Adjustments

One of the most difficult issues to address in considering a shift to consumption taxes is the transition from the current system to the new tax regime.5 While all shifts to a consumption tax cause some common transitional disturbances and windfall gains and losses, the most serious problems arise from a shift to a national retail sales tax or to a value added tax. In these cases, a tax formerly largely collected from individuals is now collected at the firm level -- either from retailers on total sales or from both final and intermediate producers' value added. Flat taxes avoid this problem but can result in confiscatory taxes on existing assets.

Price Accommodation and Short-run Contractions Under a Retail Sales Tax or VAT

Holding prices fixed, these firms would need to reduce payments to workers to retain profit levels. In fact, many firms would not have enough of a profit margin to pay the tax without something else -- either prices or wages -- adjusting. Consider, for example, a grocery retailer that may have a 1% or 2% profit margin now owing a tax equal to 20% of receipts. This firm simply does not have the cash to pay the tax. If it is difficult to lower wages (and presumably it would be), a significant one-time price inflation, to allow these costs to be passed forward in prices instead, would be required to avoid a potentially serious economic contraction. Note that the price increase, were it possible to implement correctly and precisely, would solve the transition problem because although prices would rise, individuals would have more income to purchase the higher priced goods -- and demand would not fall. It is difficult, however, for the monetary authorities to engineer such a large price change. Moreover, even with the monetary expansion in place to do so, the imposition of such a tax would be disruptive if firms are reluctant to immediately raise prices, again leading to an economic contraction. That is, firms could contract their business, or even close down, until output had contracted enough to raise prices.

These disruptions are not minor in nature -- imagine the difficulties of engineering and absorbing a one-time price increase that is likely to be close to 20% (the level, approximately, that might realistically be needed to replace the income tax).6 Even if such an inflation could be managed, there are always concerns that any large inflation could create inflationary expectations -- it's hard to manage a single one-year price increase. In fact, economists who judge a consumption tax to be superior to an income tax may nevertheless be skeptical about the advisability of making the change because of these transition effects.

  1. See CRS Report 98-901, Short-Run Macroeconomic Effects of Fundamental Tax Reform, by Jane G. Gravelle and G. Thomas Woodward for a more detailed discussion of these issues.
  2. The rate would depend on whether and the extent of any family exemption. A 20% tax exclusive rate would correspond to a tax inclusive rate between 16% and 17%.
  3. 7 U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation, Tax Modeling Project and 1997 Symposium Papers, committee print, 105th Cong., 1st sess., Nov. 20, 1997, JCS-21-97 (Washington: GPO, 1997), p. 24.
Source: CRS Report for Congress: The Flat Tax, Value-Added Tax, and National Retail Sales Tax: Overview of the Issues. Esenwein, Gregg A. and Jane Gravelle.

Prices.

Prices for consumer goods and services quickly rise by the amount of the tax, and then some. The portion of the price increase in excess of the tax is due in part to the higher cost of imports (from the weaker dollar) coupled with the ability of some domestic producers of competing goods to hike their price to that of imports. Consumer prices similarly rise 25 percent -- roughly the nominal rate of sales tax, unadjusted for any exemptions or transition rules -- by 2002 and gradually drop from that peak to a level that remains about 18 percent above the pre-change baseline.

Examined on a year-over-year basis, these price increases generally amount to a large, one-time hike in prices as the NRST is imposed, with some moderation of this increase in the longer run. Due to a weaker dollar, merchandise import prices increase by nearly 4 percent shortly after the NRST is imposed and are 6.5 percent over baseline levels in 2010. Merchandise export prices are also above baseline levels. In 2001 and 2002 they are nearly 3 percent above the baseline. However, due to lower interest rates, which reduce business costs, export prices are only slightly greater than baseline levels for most of the remainder of the forecast period. The overall impact on prices is measured by the change in the GDP deflator, which initially rises 20 percent above the baseline price level before settling back to a 13 percent price rise relative to the baseline.

The notion espoused by some that pre-tax prices would drop some 20-30 percent under a NRST (so that after-tax prices would not rise and may even decline) is a peculiar one. This could only happen if all of the personal income tax, the corporation income tax and payroll taxes are currently embodied in retail prices. Tax incidence -- that is, who actually bears the ultimate tax burden -- is an elusive question that has been the focus of many economic papers, because the answer is not clear. However, the general consensus among economists is that perhaps a portion of the corporate income tax may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, but that the majority is ultimately paid by corporate owners in the form of lower after-tax profits and by employees in the form of lower compensation. Most economists concede that personal income taxes and payroll taxes are ultimately borne by labor and are not passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Source: Statement of John G. Wilkins, Managing Director, Barcroft Consulting Group, on behalf of National Retail Federation. Testimony Before the House Committee on Ways and Means. Hearing on Fundamental Tax Reform. April 11, 2000.

Transitional Issues in Tax Reform

Price Level Effects

Because the flat tax is similar in structure to the existing income tax system, its implementation would have relatively little effect on the absolute price level. Both before- and after-tax wages would be roughly similar before and after reform, so that nominal prices remain roughly constant.

In contrast, the effect of implementing an NRST on the absolute price level is less certain. One possibility is that the tax could be fully shifted forward in the form of higher prices for consumption goods, with no change in the price of investment goods, which are untaxed under the NRST. At the other end of the spectrum of possible responses, nominal prices could remain constant. Under this scenario, before-tax real wages would have to fall roughly to the level of prereform after-tax real wages in response to the elimination of the income tax. Intermediate responses between the "full price adjustment" and "no price adjustment" scenarios are of course also possible.

Choosing between these various scenarios requires making necessarily speculative assumptions about the response of the monetary authorities to the imposition of the NRST. However, most analysts assume that the monetary response would be sufficiently accommodating that the full price adjustment scenario would obtain.

The primary rationale underlying this assumption is the view that the downward flexibility of nominal wages is quite limited, in part because most wage contracts and agreements are specified in nominal terms. Thus, a tax reform that required wage reductions to reach a new equilibrium would be quite costly as these wage reductions would initially be distributed unevenly across industries. This in turn might result in considerable unemployment in sectors characterized by rigid wages, as well as misallocations of labor, at least in the short run. Proponents of the full price adjustment view assume that monetary policy would be expansionary to avoid these costs.

Most observers fall into the full price adjustment camp. For example, McLure (1996, p. 23) concludes that it would be "hard to imagine the monetary authorities not accommodating such an increase in prices." Gravelle (1995, p. 59) argues that full price adjustment is likely because a "national sales tax would tend to produce an economic contraction if no price accommodation is made." In its analysis of the distributional implications of implementing consumption taxes, the Joint Committee of Taxation (1993, p. 59) concludes that, "Unless there are convincing reasons to assume otherwise, the JCT staff assumes the Federal Reserve will accommodate the policy change and allow prices to rise." Finally, Bradford (1996a, p. 135), in discussing the same issue in the context of a value-added tax, observes that, "It is commonly believed that introducing a value-added tax of the consumption type will bring with it a monetary policy adjustment that would result in a one-time increase in the price level ;and no change in payments to workers in nominal terms."

Nevertheless, opinion on this issue is certainly no unanimous. For example, the alternative assumption [that wages will fall] is implicitly made by Jorgenson and Wilcoxen, who argue that implementing a national sales tax would reduce producer prices on average by 25 percent. Auerbach (1996) takes a compromise position by assuming partial price adjustment. In addition, European experience with the introduction of the VAT is mixed, generally suggesting partial price adjustment. On the other hand, Besley and Rosen (1999) find full (or even more than 100 percent) forward shifting of state sales taxes in the United States.

Source: Zodrow, George R. (2002). "Transitional Issues in Tax Reform." In United States Tax Reform in the 21st Century, George Zodrow and Peter Mieszkowski, Editors. Cambridge University Press.

Monetary Implications of Tax Reforms

Does it matter how the central bank responds when the tax system is reformed? Some economists would argue that in a very general sense it does not. Many would argue that the central bank's response would have little long-run effect, because what really matters is the productive capacity of the economy and because there could be no money illusion in the long run.

And, in the short run, the standard relation between prices and money makes it clear that, under limiting assumptions, the central bank need not change monetary policy. Consider the transition from our present tax system to a consumption tax. Ignoring any incentive effects caused by the tax reform, velocity and output are unchanged. With a revenue-neutral tax reform, aggregate after-tax income is unchanged, so there need be no demand-driven effects on consumer prices. Under these conditions, v, y, and q remain unchanged as a result of the tax reform, and thus maintenance of the status quo implies that the central bank need not change its policy. Assuming that output is constant, the central bank could eliminate any transitory price changes in the long run by leaving monetary policy unchanged.

But things may not be that simple. The implied changes to wages and producer prices require a degree of flexibility in the economy that many might find unlikely. Specifically, for the consumer price to stay constant, the producer price must fall by the amount of the tax. And because a drop in the producer price means that the business revenue produced by hiring another worker drops, the before-tax wage must drop by a corresponding amount. Many have argued that such price and wage changes are implausible and that the central bank should "accommodate" a transitory change in the consumer price level by adjusting monetary policy so that it is consistent with constant producer prices and wages.

Source: Bull, Nicholas, and Lawrence B. Lindsey. 1996. "Monetary Implications of Tax Reforms." National Tax Journal 49.3 (September): 359-79.

The Price Level

When Britain adopted consumption taxation in 1979, the price level rose by the amount of the new tax. This jump in prices caused substantial disruption in the economy, partly because it stimulated further rounds of wage and price increases through indexation formulas that failed to exclude consumption taxes from the measured cost of living. Standard macroeconomic analysis suggests that the underlying cause of such a price effect is the contractual determination of wages in money terms. Under an income tax, the wage is set in pretax terms. Workers finance consumption out of what remains of their wages after paying taxes. Under a sales tax or a value-added tax (VAT), the wage is set on an after-tax basis. Workers use their entire wages for consumption and pay their consumption taxes as they consume. When an income tax is replaced by a sales tax or VAT, the wage bargain should be revised to lower the purchasing power of wages or by raising the prices of consumption goods. As a practical matter, the second always occurs.

One of the advantages of a flat tax or a personal cash-flow consumption tax is that both leave the wage bargain in pretax form. There is no disruptive jump in the price level. Unlike other effects I have discussed, the increase in the price level is not intrinsic to a consumption tax, but is the result of a particular choice about how to administer the tax.

Source: Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, by Robert E. Hall. The American Economic Review.

33 posted on 09/15/2005 8:24:24 AM PDT by Your Nightmare
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To: ancient_geezer; Principled; Your Nightmare; Always Right
or he will readjust your pay figures so that your entire paycheck will be equal to what you used to call "take home pay" before the FairTax. The employer may also decide to do a little of both.
The employer may decide?...What happened to all that "contract wage" talk from you fairtaxers?
he will readjust your pay figures
You fools sure readjusted Boortz pay figures...UP. Now he's all for "readjusting your pay figures"...DOWN to sell more books.
34 posted on 09/15/2005 8:26:35 AM PDT by lewislynn (Status quo today is the result of eliminating the previous status quo. Be careful what you wish for)
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To: groanup
Boy the more I re-read this confession, the weirder it sounds

The reality is that in America we're already operating our federal government off a consumption tax. A convoluted and impossible to understand consumption tax, but consumption tax nonetheless.

Boortz thinks that we have a consumption tax NOW?

36 posted on 09/15/2005 8:29:33 AM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: groanup
I'm a big FT supporter but I think Boortz is dancing with a hyena here.

He is attempting to shoot straight and he seems successful. He did however, fail to list compliance costs as an embedded cost of the present system. Not only is that a big cost, it is also one thing that makes the present system so odious. Not only is the gathering and keeping of information a burden but the information itself which is supplied to an already overly Big Brother government is almost a complete outline of a persons personal history. And some folks worry about the Patriot Act??.

42 posted on 09/15/2005 8:39:54 AM PDT by Mind-numbed Robot (Not all that needs to be done needs to be done by the government.)
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To: groanup
I'm a big FT supporter but I think Boortz is dancing with a hyena here.
I'm not sure what "dancing with a hyena" means (should I?), but it seems clear that Boortz didn't understand Jorgenson's research when he wrote the book.

He says in his "Quick Review" that "We all get virtual raises, since payroll taxes are no longer siphoned from our checks" and "The price of consumer goods and services remain essentially the same, with the removal of the embedded taxes compensating for the added consumption tax." This isn't a matter of "present[ing] with more clarity." It's very clear in the book what Boortz believed - it just wrong.

Instead of admitting that his big NY Times #1 bestseller is flat out wrong about a critical issue, he's now just trying to spin it.

I had little respect for Boortz before and I have even less now.
45 posted on 09/15/2005 8:42:04 AM PDT by Your Nightmare
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