Hurricane Katrina Predictions

The following is a post written by a regular reader of this site known to those who visit the comments section as “Oak Leaf". He is an active reservist with over twenty years of service that includes both the National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve:

Having just completed twelve days of active duty in support of “Joint Task Force Katrina”, six days on the ground in NOLA and six days in assisting with pre-positioning of Federal assets, I would like to offer the following predictions:

1. Mayor Ray Nagin (D) estimated that fatalities would be as high as 10,000. While it is conceivable that area wide fatalities could in theory approach 3,000, I strongly believe that fatalities in NOLA, directly attributed to Katrina will be less than one thousand, (1,000).

2. Pat O’Brien’s will be serving “Hurricanes” again before Thanksgiving of this year.

3. The Mardi Gras Carnival Parade will go on “as scheduled” for February 28, 2006.

5. Within thirty days, 90% of the city will by dry enough to access by civilian SUV.

6. Dependent on the restoration of water/sewer service, of which I have no first hand knowledge to comment, large numbers of NOLA residents will be going home by Thanksgiving.

7. Ninety percent, or more, of the residents that were displaced in NOLA will eventually return to the city in search of the now greatly expanded employment prospects in construction. However, the small percentage that does not return will change Louisiana politics permanently. Louisiana will join the rest of the “South” as a solid Republican State.

While not of a predictive nature, I would like to offer a few more thoughts. The unofficial motto of the Infantry is “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way.” The elected local politicians in Louisiana are not “leaders” and should have stepped aside. You do not elect a “leader”, a “leader” is developed over time and experience.

In spite of herself, Gov. Blanco had significant military assets available to her, of which she had little knowledge to effectively utilize. The people of Louisiana would have been better served had the Governor ceded control to one of the many Platoon Sergeants in the Louisiana Army National Guard that she commands.

In six days in NOLA I have seen ignorance, paralysis and blatant/shameless corruption, ALL at the “local” level of government. Should the Congress pursue an “investigation” or appoint a Commission, I would pray that the members are not current/former Louisiana politicians or family members. The military term FUBAR is an apt description of the “emergency management plan execution” by the NOLA Mayor, the NOLA Police Department, the LA Governor and all of their emergency management appointees.

Much thanks to Oak Leaf for this and his earlier post from Louisiana. If you missed the earlier post, “Civil Defense or Lawfare?", please read it here .

Agreed!

Just a Note to All Those Amateur Hydrologists Out There.

You think those stupid people in New Orleans living “below sea level” should never be allowed to live there again? Better checkout your own back yard first.

First sea level, or not, is not the issue. Your height above the 200 year flood plane is.

First, the depth of New Orleans below sea level has been greatly exaggerated in every press report I’ve seen. It’s not “an average of 6 feet below sea level”, or “18 feet below sea level” as the worse claim I saw. The standard cross section shown over and over in the press shows New Orleans surrounded by the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain both at maximum flood stage, 16 to 20 feet above sea level. Based on the geographic data I’ve seen New Orleans averages 2 to 3 feet below sea level.

New Orleans was filled not by a simple break that let the ocean in, but a freak cat 4-5 hurricane that hit exactly the wrong spot. A 20 foot storm surge sloshed over the wet lands separating the lake from the ocean. The levees held for 18 hours before about 300 feet of the 300 mile long levee system broke allowing the flood-stage lake to drain into the city. Bombing out a nature preserve called Bayou Savage on Tuesday night would have greatly reduced the damage to the city, by quickly lowering the lake level, but some birds would have been upset. It didn’t happen of course.

The levee that broke was recently improved. Everyone knew it was built to Cat 3 hurricane specs. It actually held up even better than the design spec.

I predict that New Orleans will be drained by October 1st or before and rebuilding will begin (You read it here first).

Meanwhile, like I said, checkout your own backyard first. If you live anywhere along the US east coast or Gulf coast and are less than 20 feet or so above sea level, a cat 4 for 5 storm can kill you too. Ask the people along the Mississippi coast. It takes only a few minutes for you to drown not weeks of flooding.

Ask New York and Boston about the Great Hurricane of 1938. Study the “Big Dig” also known as I-93 and the Kerry/Kennedy Dieway. It’s the main evacuation route out of Boston and is 100 feet below sea level. It only cost you 14 billion federal tax dollars to build.

If you live in California checkout the 2000 miles of levees that protect 2 million of your citizens in the flood plane. Another 18 million people depend on those levees for their water. Good thing there are no earth quakes in California.

If you live anywhere near the Missouri or Mississippi Rivers you better check out the levees that protect you. Been some earth quakes there too, I heard.

If you live downstream of any dam, maybe you better go check out its safety before you talk about those stupid people in New Orleans.

There are thousands of more examples out there, but my typing finger is tired.

Me, I’m smart and safe. I live in Tornado Alley and I’m well protected by the Trinity River levees.

John Jamieson, MIT’67, NASA ‘67-93

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