Posted on 08/25/2005 4:16:43 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
2005 SUMMER ASSESSMENT
Reliability of Bulk Electricity Supply in North America
ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/docs/pubs/summer2005-Revised.pdf
- - - - - - - -
California Independent System Operator (CAISO)
Resources
The CAISO forecasts that under-average weather conditions the lowest forecast monthly reserve margin is 17.2%, which is above California's recently adopted planning reserve margin of 15%, which is set to take effect in 2006. However, the reserves in southern California are much lower than in northern California with the reserve margin in the southern portion of the control area forecast to only be 11.9%. Under extreme weather conditions (higher than normal temperatures expected to occur once every ten years), the southern California portion of the CAISO control area may have a resource deficiency of up to 1,725MW (-0.7%) compared with operating requirements.Transmission
Recent transmission system upgrades have greatly reduced transmission constraints between central and northern California (Path 15), and a variety of projects are under construction in northern California to bolster the sub-transmission systems.
The Path 15 south-to-north 2005 summer operating transfer capability limit is 5,400 MW compared with the 2004 limit of 3,950 MW. Since last summer, the interconnection between southern and central California (Path 26) has been up-rated from 3,400 MW to 3,700 MW for north-to-south flows and a further up-rate to 4,000 MW is presently under investigation.
California imports from the Southwest may be limited by the Southern California Import Transmission (SCIT) operating nomogram. However, the SCIT 2005 summer operating transfer capability limit has increased to 14,500 MW compared with the 2004 limit of 13,700 MW.
South-of-Lugo is a significant congestion concern in the Southern California Edison area as flows are worsened under high southern California import conditions and/or the unavailability of local area generation.
For 2005, the retirement of local area generation at Long Beach (529 MW) is expected to somewhat worsen flows, but an up-grade to the South-of-Lugo path by 500 MW is expected to be completed prior to the summer season.
In addition to a couple of 69 kV projects to help ease some local area congestion, San Diego Gas & Electric is expediting work on a temporary Miguel-Mission Number 2 230 kV line to ease some of the congestion north of the Miguel substation. Previously scheduled to be in service in September, the line may be completed as early as June 2005.
Operational Issues
The CAISO and load serving entities in the area are expected to be able to rely on non-firm interruptible load programs, public appeals for load reductions, and emergency resource imports from adjacent areas to avoid interrupting firm load under the potential extreme weather conditions. Adjacent areas (Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP), Northwest Power Pool (NWPP), and the Desert Southwest) are forecasting available resources for export unless higher than normal temperatures occur across all of these adjacent areas, abnormally high generation is unavailable, or transmission constraints limit these exports.The CAISO control area has 1,610 MW of reliability-related interruptible load programs that may be activated should adverse operating conditions occur. However, only about 1,290 MW of the total is in the more constrained southern portion of the control area. In addition to these reliability-related interruptible load programs, up to 915 MW of additional total-area demand relief may be available, but some of that demand relief is limited by restrictions such as day-ahead notification. Extended operation of certain generating units can encroach upon environmental limitations, which restrict the number of hours a generating unit can run. With careful coordination of unit dispatch to mitigate local area reliability concerns, such limitations are not expected to present an operational problem this summer.
Although southern California is an area of concern for this summer, it appears that options are available to meet firm load needs during average summer, as well as unusually hot summer conditions.
i just love my coal powered air conditioner here in kentucky.
(/screw you left coast)
Sorry folks, I arrived at home and turned on the air conditioner. That did it...
Actually, I live in Glendale and we generate our own power. No problem...
We import snow from Canada and cram the stuff into our ears.
(That was a joke.)
Yeah, yeah I've been in Cal all my life and had one black out that lasted 1 minute. Not to be offensive or anything, but I could never live in Texas. With the Venus like atmosphere of humidity, compounded by that heat, I'd wind up murdering people. LOL!
When I came home from the 118 headed east, it looked like a fire by the 210 at the transition, in the S/W corner. I went down the five to stop by Fry's and didn't see what it was.
And more, Texas has it's own power grid.Not all, and there are a couple of "tie-lines" between the 'island' portion that is independent from the other two main 'grids' (east and west) to the eastern grid ...
A portion of the far eastern part of the state *is* connected to the 'eastern' grid.
Thanks for being there, and hit any one of them with a spitball for me.
LOL
I appreciate your response and enjoy a friendly discussion.
On this one, am just having fun.
BUT:
DONT MESS WITH TEXAS </grin
Me too.
I knew there were a few "Islands of Un Civilation" but most of the state is ERCOT, as is my area.
Appreciate the correction.
Actually, California was dumb enough to put a ban of Nuclear Energy in the state constitution.
If I am correct:
About the time we were building the "South Texas Project" and "Comanche Peak"
If I am correct:
About the time we were building the "South Texas Project" and "Comanche Peak"
I didn't do it.
It's not my fault.
Drudge Flash Traffic
Rodeo Drive hit; Beverly Hills Jamba Juice forced to give away smoothie inventory, according to witness... Developing...
When? Details? We have nuclear power in CA. It isn't as if new nuke plants are being built elsewhere in the US.
When I first saw you post my first reaction was BS.
Then I checked, alas it is TRUE!!!
What in the cornbread hell is the world coming to?
Beverly Hills Jamba Juice forced to give away smoothie inventory, according to witness... Developing...
Of all the times to live in OC...sheesh. ;)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.