Richard Tarrant (R-VT) Plans To Spend $500,000 Of His Own Money On U.S. Senate Bid If He Runs

The Rutland Herald ^ | July 12, 2005 | Louisn Porter

[Clintonfatigued]

Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is not likely to run.

[Clintonfatigued]

Just because Sanders has won low-profile House races, it doesn't automatically mean he's a shoo-in for a high-profile Senate race. Don't rule Tarrant out yet.

[Txsleuth]

We Freepers need to find out Tarrant's stance on the important things, like pro-life, fiscal spending, border control, affirmative action, the WOT...

IF he checks out...maybe we could do like we did for Thune last year....help him out money wise if he needs it.

Bernie Sanders is NOT an option for the Senate, IMHO!

[Bushbacker]

This is Vermont, state of Leahy and Dean. No Republican win, not even against a whacko Socialist
like Sanders...

[Clintonfatigued]

I don't know for certain Tarrant's stands on those issues, but he did once donate money to a right-to-life group.

[John Robertson]

In Vermont, "pro-life" means you're not necessarily in favor of killing three-year-olds.

[Clintonfatigued]

Governor Jim Douglas, Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie, and state Auditor Randy Brock are Republicans who've won statewide office in Vermont.

Your prediction is premature.

[zbigreddogz]

I'm not sure how low-profile the house race is, I mean, it's a statewide House race.

That said, I agree that it's premature to say for sure that Sanders will win, but the only realistc way I see it happening is if the D's run somebody.

The rich guy sounds alright for the senate, it's gonna be a longshot anyway, so as long as he's even halfway decent, sounds good to me.

I'm hoping the Lt. Governor runs for the House. That's a little more winnable.

[JohnnyZ]

Yup, sounds like a good combo to me.

The Senate race is a possible bank shot -- Tarrant has a shot if Racine runs, and I do buy the line about someone like Tarrant being seen as more independent.

And Dubie should definitely concentrate on the most winnable race, which is the House.

[jmaroneps37]

He can count on a little of my money as well. We need that seat back.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The Senate race is a possible bank shot -- Tarrant has a shot if Racine runs, and I do buy the line about someone like Tarrant being seen as more independent.

And Dubie should definitely concentrate on the most winnable race, which is the House."

---

I don't think it makes sense for Dubie to forgo running for reelection as Lt. Gov. (possibly setting up a gubernatorial run in 2008) merely to run for an office such as U.S. Representative, where he would be one of 435 and would face tough races every two years. And since there probably will be only one liberal running for the House, the race would be tougher for Dubie to win than would the Senate race. Running for the Senate, however, is a gamble worth taking, since if he wins he would form part of a very exclusive and influential club and would not face reelection for 6 years. Besides, with the likelihood of Doug Racine or some other Democrat running for the Senate, Dubie could win merely by getting the GOP base (Bush got 39% in 2004). I don't know if the unknown quantity Tarrant would necessarily keep all of the Bush voters running against Racine and Sanders.

[zbigreddogz]

I disagree for several reasons:

A. The House Race has no high-proflie person yet. Dubie has won statewide before, and it is virtually assured that he will not be facing a statewide winner in the House Race. If he runs for Senate, that will not be true, he will be facing someone who's won statewide 6 or 7 times.

B. He could still run for Governor in '08 if Douglas doesn't run again. Douglas may well continue on well past that. If he stays in till '10, he'll only have been Governor for 8 years. Dean was Governor for almost 12.

C. I seriously, seriously doubt ANY Bush voter would vote for Sanders. Sanders isn't just a Dem, he's a socialist. I think all the Bush voters will vote for the R nomatter what, unless someone shows me some good reason to say otherwise.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I seriously, seriously doubt ANY Bush voter would vote for Sanders."

---

That may be true, but if Racine is also in the race, it is not a certainty that Tarrant will get all 39% of the vote that Bush got.

BTW, when Sanders ran for the House against a moderate Republican in 1990, he won because the Republican was unable to keep the GOP base on board (GHW Bush had won over 50% in VT in 1988). In particular, a lot of VT gunowners voted for Sanders because he claimed to be pro-gun while the Republican Congressman had voted for gun control. And given the fact that Sanders' GOP opponents routinely get below 39% in his House reelection races proves that he is still able to get GOP votes. I think we need the strongest possible Republican to get around 40% in a 3-man race, and since Gov. Douglas isn't interested I think Dubie gives us our best shot.

As for the House race, maybe the Republican state auditor can run. He's won statewide before, and it wouldn't be a step down for him as it would for Dubie. And, unless I'm confusing him with another statewide officeholder, the state auditor is black, which would make him an instant superstar in Congress (although hopefully he wouldn't be the only black Republican in the House in 2007).

[zbigreddogz]

I disagree that it's a step down for Dubie. Being Lt. Governor isn't being Governor, I believe it's pretty much just a figurehead job. Especially from a small state, it's not unusual for even a Governor to run for the at-large House seat. It happened in SD in 2002.

That said, the State Auditor sounds like a good candidate as well, and if we could get him to run, and Dubie to run for Senate, that would be alright too. I just want a strong candidate for the House seat.

[JohnnyZ]

1. Dubie needs to pick a race fairly soon and not wait to see if Racine will make the Senate race competitive

2. Sanders might still dominate a 3-way race

I see the senate race as a crapshoot so better to stick Dubie in the House race. If he loses (either race) he can still run for governor when Douglas is through.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I'd rather keep Dubie at Lt. Gov. than have him run for the House (even if we assume that he wins the House race).

And if Sanders would "dominate" a three-man race with Dubie and Racine (as in, have a lead of 8%+ the whole way through and deliver on election day), then I don't think that Dubie would win the House race either. Doug Racine was the Democrat gubernatorial nominee in 2002 (not 1976 or something) and I don't see how he would get below 20% or so of the vote (especially with a D nest to his name), so if Sanders wins by 8% he would get 44% to 36% for Dubie, and if Dubie can't get over 36% against Sanders and Racine I don't think he'd get 50% in another federal race.

[EDINVA]

"...Sanders has won low-profile House races..."

but it's the state's ONLY House race.

Wish Tarrant or anyone else who isn't Bernie Sanders all the luck in the world.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I disagree that it's a step down for Dubie. Being Lt. Governor isn't being Governor, I believe it's pretty much just a figurehead job. Especially from a small state, it's not unusual for even a Governor to run for the at-large House seat. It happened in SD in 2002."

---

You're right that being Lt. Gov. isn't the same as being Gov., but it ain't nothing either. As long as he's Lt. Gov., Dubie is a heartbeat (or a resignation) away from the governorship (remember that Douglas is no spring chicken) and would be the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination when Douglas retires. If I were Dubie, I would run for the House only if I thought that (i) I'd win, (ii) Douglas won't be retiring before 2010, and (iii) Senator Leahy will not seek re-election in 2010 and being in the House will give me a better chance of winning the Senate race than would being Lt. Gov.

As for governors of small states running for at-large House seats, it's true that Janklow did it, and Mike Castle of Delaware did it a few years ago, but in both cases they were term-limited and they pretty much went to the House while they waited for a Senate seat to open up (although Janklow also did it to block Larry Pressler, and Castle has gone on to like serving in the House and probably won't run for the Senate unless one of the incumbent Democrats retires). The reason why at-large House seats are coveted is that they give the person a great opportunity to go on and run for something really big, such as the Senate or the Governorship---it's popular as a means to an end, not as an end in itself. But if my goal was to be Governor someday I'd stay as Lt. Gov. And even if I wanted to be a Senator instead, I'd take an 80% chance at reelection as Lt. Gov. over a 50% (at most) chance at election to the House.

But I'm not Brian Dubie.

[zbigreddogz]

You make a good point about the Lt. Governor being the obvious successor to Governor, and that he could just stay in his Lt. Governor's seat and run for Senate or Governor later, and that he might want to do that instead of run for House. But wern't you suggesting he run for Senate this time?

Oh, and about SD, Pressler was going to run for House? As in former Senator Larry Pressler? Hmm, that's interesting. Most wouldn't want to take that step down. That said, it would be kinda nice if he runs for House in '06 to knock out Herseth, which I think he could do. Or heck, he could go for a rematch with Johnson in '08. But how old is he now?

[zbigreddogz]

Just checked into it: Pressler is only 63. He could still have a good race or two left in him.