"I seriously, seriously doubt ANY Bush voter would vote for Sanders."
That may be true, but if Racine is also in the race, it is not a certainty that Tarrant will get all 39% of the vote that Bush got.
BTW, when Sanders ran for the House against a moderate Republican in 1990, he won because the Republican was unable to keep the GOP base on board (GHW Bush had won over 50% in VT in 1988). In particular, a lot of VT gunowners voted for Sanders because he claimed to be pro-gun while the Republican Congressman had voted for gun control. And given the fact that Sanders' GOP opponents routinely get below 39% in his House reelection races proves that he is still able to get GOP votes. I think we need the strongest possible Republican to get around 40% in a 3-man race, and since Gov. Douglas isn't interested I think Dubie gives us our best shot.
As for the House race, maybe the Republican state auditor can run. He's won statewide before, and it wouldn't be a step down for him as it would for Dubie. And, unless I'm confusing him with another statewide officeholder, the state auditor is black, which would make him an instant superstar in Congress (although hopefully he wouldn't be the only black Republican in the House in 2007).
I disagree that it's a step down for Dubie. Being Lt. Governor isn't being Governor, I believe it's pretty much just a figurehead job. Especially from a small state, it's not unusual for even a Governor to run for the at-large House seat. It happened in SD in 2002.
That said, the State Auditor sounds like a good candidate as well, and if we could get him to run, and Dubie to run for Senate, that would be alright too. I just want a strong candidate for the House seat.
"As for the House race, maybe the Republican state auditor can run."
State Auditor Randy Brock would be a good candidate, and having another African-American Republican seeking Congressional office would get some good press. But there's no sign that Brock is interested.
If Dubie doesn't run for the House, I expect that former state House Speaker Walter Freed will run.