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To: nicollo

He will let it ride. The odds, given US deficit spending, and balance of trade imbalance, are highly in his favor.

Those who are having their chuckles now, can go play their favorite state lottery. Suckers.


7 posted on 04/30/2005 7:07:23 PM PDT by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

According to much of the more recent economic opinion, no the odds aren't highly in his favor. There's no accounting for the ignorance of emotion beating an illogical path, though, and that's exactly what Buffet is fomenting and counting on.


8 posted on 04/30/2005 7:22:13 PM PDT by Sandreckoner
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

Some of us expected a rebound for the dollar, which seems to still be in play. I wouldn't bet on the dollar long term though, which is Buffet's time frame. I also wouldn't bet on the euro, which is likely to be at its zenith. There are other currencies which are probably mnuch better bets than either. I'd like to know what Buffet would be in, instead of the dollar.


11 posted on 04/30/2005 7:37:02 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

If the odds ARE in his favor, it is only because of his special gifts, NOT anything you would know about.

I don't say this to call you ignorant. Far from it. It's just that whatever play you make on currency today, you are buying into a market that is SET BY really smart people who have looked at all the evidence, and priced the market accordingly.

If those people all do their jobs correctly, and assuming the speculators are evenly split, there is a 50/50 chance of the gamble paying off.

So the odds are only better if you are smart enough to know something the market as a whole doesn't.

I wouldn't want to bet against Buffet, but on the other hand a lot of people go broke trying to mimic him.


21 posted on 04/30/2005 9:26:34 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT (http://spaces.msn.com/members/criticallythinking)
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