Insurgents had promised to stop this weekend's Iraqi elections with a rash of violence. That didn't happen. Twenty-nine were killed, far fewer than anticipated on Sunday.
The question now, the insurgents did not stop the elections. So can the election now stop the insurgents? Let's start with Rob Nordland, Baghdad bureau chief in "Newsweek" magazine. He wrote the cover story this weekend. It is one fascinating article as well.
Rob, welcome here to AMERICAN MORNING. Answer that question, first off -- is it possible for these elections to stop the insurgency?
ROB NORDLAND, "NEWSWEEK" BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Well, it's possible. It's probably more likely that the elections will actually feed the insurgency, because as successful as they were, a large number of Sunnis did not participate, particularly in the most conflicted areas, in Anbar province and some other parts of the country. And that potentially could lead to a very big recruiting ground for the insurgents. I mean, ultimately, you fight insurgencies with political means if you want to ultimately defeat them or resolve them. And it remains to be seen whether that will work in this case.
HEMMER: One of the questions being asked here in the U.S., especially over the past 24 hours, is now that the elections are finished, does that speed up the process now for the U.S. military to pack up and come home in some form? Does that send the wrong message to insurgents. NORDLAND: Well, yes, it was a very major feat for the insurgency. They threw everything they had at the election. There were 260 attacks, there were a record nine or 10 suicide bombings in Baghdad, but they made very little impact, and they didn't accomplish their aim, which was to deter voters from going to the polls, or even wreck the elections.
Certainly if they'd have wrecked the elections, we'd be that much farther away from leaving. So in a sense, they do bring us closer to it, but it's certainly not going to happen tomorrow, or even in the next months. There's still this very big and very effective insurgency to combat, and it's going to be around for a while.
HEMMER: And Zarqawi apparently put out an audio tape, I believe it was yesterday, saying that Baghdad will never become Shiite. That was part of translation. In your report -- by the way, and it's a wonderful article, and congratulations to you, in "Newsweek" magazine now -- you say that Zarqawi was in possession of coalition forces or Iraqi forces in Falluja back in October. How do we know that?
NORDLAND: Well, the Iraqi authorities found a Saudi youth in a hospital, they originally thought that he was injured as a bystander in a suicide bombing. Turns out he was the bomber, and by some miracle survived. When he started talking, it turns out he was from a cell that was under Zarqawi's control, and he related other cell members talking about Zarqawi's arrest, having a good yuk about it. They checked it out, and Iraqi authorities now are satisfied it's true. He was actually in custody for seven hours in Falluja.
HEMMER: Begs the question, why didn't the Iraqis know this? Why could they not identify him?
NORDLAND: Well, it does raise the question. There were police in Falluja that remember, and the police in Falluja, at that time, before the U.S. attacked and subdued the place, were pretty much working with the insurgency, so they might well have known who he was, or they were just incompetent and missed an opportunity for a $25 million reward. Either one is possible. I don't think that would happen again.
HEMMER: One more thing, let me pick up on this -- one of the things you write about in your article is the key to success right now in defeating the insurgents is to separate these groups from one another. In other words, take Zarqawi's groups and separate them and get some distance between them and some of these other groups operating throughout Iraq. You say that has worked in Egypt. It's worked in Algeria in the 1990s. Why would that work today in Iraq?
NORDLAND: Well, there are two major strands in the resistance. There's Zarqawi and the terrorists, and there's not going to be any negotiating with them. They want to kill as many people as possible. Their goal is to provoke a major conflagration between the West and Islam. So there's just no dealing with them.
The others are Baathists, and Iraqis and former regime elements, and they include a lot of people who possibly could be talked to, or certainly could be persuaded to lay down their weapons, and ultimately, that's a solution, and it has worked other places.
But first of all, they need to be reassured that there's a role for Sunnis in this future government, and it's not just a Shia-only affair, which is what Zarqawi's trying very hard to depict it as, and there is a danger it would become that, if the right moves aren't made.
HEMMER: Well, the article is called "Unmasking the Insurgents." Rob Nordland wrote it at "Newsweek" magazine, along Tom Meslin (ph) and Christopher Dickey (ph).
To our viewers, it is excellent reading and a great article, too. Congratulations to you, Rob. Stay safe over there in Baghdad. Thanks for your time -- Soledad.
Lets see what was going on with Zarcoward in October 2004 - Texkat
Zarqawi pledges allegiance to Osama - October 26, 2004
Al Zarqawi Honcho Hit in Fallujah - October 26, 2004
US army said a senior member of al-Zarqawi network is in custody
Falluja strikes - October 23, 2004
Overnight, US warplanes bombed the Iraqi city of Falluja, killing two people and wounding three.
Hospital staff said they had received the casualties after what residents said was an air strike on the southern edge of Falluja at about midnight (2100 GMT) on Friday.
Residents said US forces detained at least 17 people in outlying areas of the city in raids before dawn.
The US military also said it had captured a "senior leader" in the network allegedly run by al-Qaida-linked Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, during the raid.
A statement said a lieutenant of al-Zarqawi's network had been captured in a raid at 1.30am (2230 GMT) on Friday in what it called a safe haven in southern Falluja.
"The individual targeted and captured today was recently assessed to be a relatively minor member of the Zarqawi network, according to intelligence sources," the statement said.
Official detained
"However, due to a surge in the number of Zarqawi associates who have been captured or killed by (US) strikes and other operations, the member had moved up to take a critical position as a Zarqawi senior leader," it said, without identifying the man or stating his nationality.
"There were also five other terrorists detained during this raid," the statement added.
Aljazeera has also learned that US troops arrested Mahmud al-Jarassi, deputy governor of Falluja, when he arrived in the city on Saturday morning.
Determined to regain control of the city, which has become a no-go zone for the US army, more than 1000 joint US and Iraqi forces have encircled the area since last Friday.
Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi last week ordered Falluja residents to hand over al-Zarqawi or face invasion. Fallujans have denied that al-Zarqawi is holed up with them.
Humanitarian agencies have raised concerns for the welfare of residents in Falluja, which is being hit by US air raids almost every night.