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Posted on 01/21/2005 10:22:13 PM PST by kattracks
Mark my words. You heard it here first.
I'm not saying it because I think that it is necessarily the easiest or the best way for Democrats to recapture the White House. I'm saying it because it's the only way.Forget about John Kerry. He's the only one who doesn't know he's toast. Going toe to toe with Barbara Boxer to vote against Condi Rice just makes him look small. If he was so strongly against the war, he should have run a different campaign. He might have even won.
Hillary, in that seat, would've voted yes. Heck, she would've hugged her.
John Edwards? John Edwards the presidential candidate was appealing for his independence; John Edwards the vice-presidential candidate shrank to a loyal No. 2 and Elizabeth's husband. At a recent meeting with his donors, he was still giving the Two Americas speech. Hillary has moved on. If he's going to compete, he needs a new speech and a new job.
No one else out there on the Democratic side has any sizzle, any juice, any energy at all.
But neither did Bill Clinton before 1992, you say. Wrong. Bill Clinton was a major figure on the Democratic scene throughout the 1980s, one of the longest-serving governors, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, boy wonder of the Democratic Party since the late 1970s, frequently mentioned as a possible candidate in 1988, chair of the Dukakis-Bentsen campaign that year, involved on a daily basis behind the scenes. No Mark Warner or Evan Bayh he.
Lee Atwater, the first President Bush's late, legendary campaign manager, used to say that if you're going to be president, you first have to make it into the small boat of those who the American people think are qualified to do the job. That doesn't mean they like you, or would vote for you, just that you're up to it. If you can't make it into the boat, you don't have a shot.
Making it into that boat has gotten harder since 9/11. Our willingness to take a chance on someone with limited experience in government or no experience in foreign policy is bound to be lower today than in the past. That could be bad news for unknowns like Warner of Virginia or Bayh of Indiana, but it could be very good news for the very well-known Mrs. Clinton.
"Two for one," people used to say when Bill Clinton was running, and they didn't always mean it as a selling point. It will be this time around. There is, quite simply, no one in the Democratic Party who is as popular as Bill Clinton. There is no one Democrats, and some Independents, would trust more in the White House. His recent heart surgery has pushed Monica even further into the background. Is there anyone who doubts that Clinton could have beaten Bush?
Women may still be seen by a minority of voters significant enough to sway a close election as too "weak" to manage a foreign policy crisis, or as not tough enough to be commander in chief, but in that regard, Hillary Clinton occupies a unique position. If you think that men run the show anyway, then, in her case, that might be just fine.
The conventional answer to the Hillary argument is that she's too polarizing ever to get elected. When so many people don't like you, you have to get the votes of every single person who doesn't hate you, which is no easy feat.
But Hillary is not a polarizing figure among Democratic primary and caucus participants. She is the most popular figure in the country in that group, and particularly in a multi-candidate field when you're the only serious woman running (not to mention who your husband is, how much money you can raise, the celebrities who will come out for you, the organization you inherit, the power base of New York), that's a substantial advantage.
There will almost certainly be an "Anybody But Hillary" contingent, and it won't be short, and it won't be pretty, but if you're looking for a winner, look to New York.
As for the general election, the fact that John Kerry, who is certainly no more appealing than Hillary, almost won, proves that it can be done. Kerry didn't defend himself when he needed to, didn't attack Bush when he was vulnerable, didn't go after him on the war when he could have, let his campaign degenerate into ugly backstabbing, and got totally outdone in terms of technology on voter turnout. And he still came close.
Under the direction of the best campaign manager in American history, the Hillary Clinton campaign will make none of these mistakes. Strategically, it will be brilliant. Tactically, it will be flawless. There will be one campaign manager, and everyone will know who he is, and except for Hillary, no one will be able to call him Bill. So watch out.
Like I said, four more years.
THAT would definitely be some BAD blow!
Ken "Van Helsing" Starr missed his chance.
LOL! I would be feeling like a trapped animal, too.
Oh! That.
Thanks.
Oh yeah, Mrs. Sh#%head. She's the One. Sure. Bring the beeyatch on.
Susan, you're late to the party. FReepers have been saying "you heard it hear first" about a Hitlery run in '08 for as long as four years now!
> but who really wants them as Republican nominees?
The MSM.
Tired of dynasties. Tired of Gigantic Bloated Government politicians. Tired of the same old crap. Therefore, already tired of "Jeb".
I'll back that up.
I was surprised by this piece by Susan becasue she always used the words 'Hillary' and 'unelectable' close together. I have to disagree that this is typical of Susan. I've read her for many, many years, and though her partisan democrat leanings annoy me, her analyisis is usually well thought out.
"If Hillary gets the nod, I think you'll see Jeb get the nod."
The primary process doesn't work this way, which is way we frequently see candidates so mismatched.
"Not to mention that Hillary will actually have to answer the questions she's been dodging her whole life."
You're kidding right? Kerry never had to answer for his Senate record, or his dissing of all vietnam vets. Hillary has this down to a science. She won't have to answere for anything she doesn't want and the MSM will go along with it 100%
"Hillary has NO chance of winning."
Underestimating the Clintons is how we ended up with Bill for 8 years.
Yeh Susan. Over half of the US thinks that.
Do the math. I'd say she has a 75% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Her name recognition and fundraising ability and support among Democrats is far higher than anyone else. Sure, some Democrats don't like her or will fear that she'll lose the general election. But most Democrats are starving for a candidate who can unite them and win. To them, she is the best of the lot. And she has tons of nostalgia on her side.
If she gets the nomination, she has at least a 40% chance of winning the election, just by virtue of being the Democratic candidate. I doubt that she'd be any worse of a campaigner than Kerry, and Kerry did come within 118 thousand votes in Ohio of winning. Old memories and hatreds will have faded amongst most of the population, and she'll have established herself as a credible politician in her own right after serving for eight years in the U.S. Senate.
Now look at the Republican side. Jeb Bush has no chance, and is smart enough to realize it. Three Bushes almost in a row smacks far too much of a dynasty, and the American people won't stand for that. No other Republican has a big advantage in the race for the nomination, so at this point the probability of any specific Republican winning the nomination is less than 20%.
Once a Republican candidate is selected, his or her chance of winning the general election is no higher than 60%, just because of all the uncertainties involved. By 2008 the American public could be tired of Republicans running the country, and be ready for a change.
So I put the probability of Hillary being elected President at 0.75 * 0.4 = 30%. The odds of any particular Republican you care to name being elected President are no better than 0.2 * 0.6 = 12%.
As for Bill, he'll enjoy being in the White House again and playing the role of elder statesman. He'll still be addressed as "Mr. President". And, who knows, he might end up as U.N. Secretary General during Hillary's Administration.
Mark my words, no one who voted to allow partial birth abortion and gets her main money from NARAL can win an elevtion in the United States.
Add to that her so called "marriage" , her financial scandals for which she was never indicted, but never vindicated either.
She is a TRIAL LAWYER, a member of the most bel;oved profession in America.
I have news for Susan: Bil;l Clinton is one of the most detested figures EVER in American politics. Every single person he has ever campaigned for has lost.
How many people want to go to sleep at night knowing that Slick Willie is back in the Oval Office?
And that is just the list of her male and female sex partners.
'bout as much as he enjoyed having open heart surgery.
You may be right but I just don't see him playing second fiddle to Hillary. She can't get rid of him nor can he disavow her. The are joined at the hip, politically. We won't see it happen in the open, but he will sabotage her White House hopes and she knows it.
Monica Lewinsky. ;-)
Great analysis ...I agree ...Never underestimate the Clintons ...Big mistake if you do ...
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