Posted on 01/01/2005 7:19:08 PM PST by Milwaukee_Guy
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NCNTRL/NERN IA...MUCH OF WI...FAR NRN IL AND MUCH OF LOWER MI/SRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 020021Z - 020615Z
SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE PROGRESSING ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 06Z. TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. ONE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND FROM NCNTRL/NERN IA NEWD ACROSS SERN MN...CENTRAL/NERN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI. THE OTHER AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL WI EWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...ISOLATED 0.15 TO 0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.
RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LVL JET MAX ROTATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS/NEB. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS ALREADY ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR IMAGERY OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. AS THE UPPER JET MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEWD ENHANCEMENT OF ALREADY MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN JET MAX OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT BOUNDARY.
THUS A DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXTEND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONTAL TRACK FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI THROUGH 06Z. THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THIS REGION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL EXIST FROM NCENTRAL IA NEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI/WRN U.P OF MI THROUGH 06Z.
ELSEWHERE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN MN THROUGH 06Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NWD TO A ALO TO MSN TO MKE LINE BY 06Z. THUS FREEZING RAIN OVER ERN IA/FAR NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH/NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FARTHER ENE...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN A SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET OVER MUCH OF ECENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z AND WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH 03Z. WELL REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW DRY ELY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM BEFORE AND AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. INITIAL PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL WI EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE FORM OF SLEET DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE HEELS OF A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AIDING IN MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER ERN IA/WRN IL WILL AID IN QUICK SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM SW-NE FROM 02-06Z. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG...MODERATE TO HVY FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION WILL REACH A JXN TO HTL LINE BY 06Z.
..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005
Anybody out there been driving in this tonight?
It is so slick here that I literally slid into the driveway tonight! Couldn't even walk on the sidewalks. Gotta find the salt.
To clarify: Areas -North A of LaCrosse to Green Bay line are under an ICE STORM WARNING. Areas -South- of this line are under a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM CST Sunday. Looks like areas South of Interstate 94 in WI should be minimally impacted at this time.
My keen senses were alerted when a skidded down my concrete steps as I was hauling the garbage out to the side of the garage. Could not walk on the walkway so I cut across the lawn.
We started getting our ice early this a.m. and it been an on-again-off-again deal all day long...I'd guestimate between an 1/8 to a 1/4 inch so far.
Fortunately neither one of us have to venture onto the roads until Monday.....temps hovering around the 32-34 mark but with the winds it's allowing any melting to occur.
The sun may peek out tomorrow to help the road situation, our driceway (700ft)is VERY slick even though it's gravel so I'm sure the county roads are very treacherous at this point too.
At 7:00 PM CST the US Hwy 41/45 "split" south of West Bend WI was closed due to a multi-car pileup. Here on the NW side of Milwaukee I've heard sirens constantly for the last couple hours.
Hope it clears up. I have to pick up my son at the airport tomorrow night. We have an evil 4WD SUV but I don't want to be driving in that mess.
Northest NE had a heck of an ice storm today...at least 1/4 of an inch of ice that came as freezing drizzle all day....many accidents all day long.
Interestingly the temperatures are forecast to increase overnight. More precipitation is moving into the entire state. E MN and NW IL are currently having thunderstorms (Jan 1st ?).
Warm front from the SSW overrunning freezing temperatures can make for a very bad situation. Forecasting ice accumulations to 1/2" is very significant. Besides road travel, power outages are also a concern in these conditions.
Southern Minnesota is slicker than a snotty doorknob tonight, too. Please drive carefully, MN Freepers... And, Vesely Novy Rok!! (Happy New Year in Czech)
We had an ice storm here a few years back. Our power was out for about five days.
Oh, this is a weather report. From the headline I thought it concerned a chapter meeting of the National Organization of Women....
Winter road conditions
SATURDAY, JANUARY 01, 2005 07:00 PM
Listing for interstates and major highways
Road condition map | Report preparation
I39 PORTAGE TO WAUSAU SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
I43 DELAVAN TO GREEN BAY SLIPPERY STRETCHES
I90 BELOIT TO WISCONSIN DELLS ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
I90 WISCONSIN DELLS TO CAMP DOUGLAS SLIPPERY STRETCHES
I90 CAMP DOUGLAS TO LA CROSSE ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
I94 RACINE TO OCONOMOWOC SLIPPERY STRETCHES
I94 MADISON TO TOMAH ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
I94 TOMAH TO EAU CLAIRE SLIPPERY STRETCHES
I94 EAU CLAIRE TO HUDSON ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 2 HURLEY TO SUPERIOR SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 8 MICHIGAN LINE TO LADYSMITH SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 8 LADYSMITH TO ST. CROIX FALLS ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 10 MANITOWOC TO FREMONT SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 10 FREMONT TO MARSHFIELD ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 10 MARSHFIELD TO FAIRCHILD SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 10 FAIRCHILD TO OSSEO ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 13 WISCONSIN DELLS TO ABBOTSFORD ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 13 ABBOTSFORD TO ASHLAND SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 14 LONE ROCK TO LA CROSSE ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 21 OSHKOSH TO REDGRANITE SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 21 REDGRANITE TO NECEDAH ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 21 NECEDAH TO TOMAH SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 29 GREEN BAY TO CHIPPEWA FALLS SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 35 MINNESOTA LINE TO ST CROIX FALLS ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 35 ST CROIX FALLS TO FREDERIC SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 35 DANBURY TO SUPERIOR ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 41 MILWAUKEE TO GREEN BAY SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 45 ILLINOIS LINE TO NEW LONDON SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 45 NEW LONDON TO ANTIGO SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
HWY 45 ANTIGO TO MICHIGAN LINE SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 51 WAUSAU TO TOMAHAWK SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
HWY 51 TOMAHAWK TO HURLEY SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 53 LA CROSSE TO EAU CLAIRE ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 53 EAU CLAIRE TO NEW AUBURN SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 63 INTERSTATE 94 TO TURTLE LAKE ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS
HWY 70 PIKE LAKE TO SPOONER SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 141 GREEN BAY TO NIAGARA SLIPPERY STRETCHES
HWY 151 COLUMBUS TO FOND DU LAC SLIPPERY STRETCHES
DUE TO CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS, MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.
WISCONSIN STATE PATROL - MADISON/DEFOREST
OPR/SAU
Uhhh.....not to worry.
Global Warming will resolve this by morning. :-)
"I thought it concerned a chapter meeting of the National Organization of Women...."
Man...that's cold! :-D
I spent a week in Stouton one January and it was 10 degrees, twice every day. +10 during the day, -10 at night. I knew I was hosed when my rental car came with a bunch of deicing equipment and the hotel parking spaces all had outlets.
May I be the first to say (finally),
It's Bush's fault!
Everybody always beats me. It just wouldn't be right if a FR thread didn't have it either.
Good luck, hope the power stays on.
How about a question for the ice and snow experts: Does regular table salt sprinkled on icy stairs help melt ice that has built up, or is a special type of salt required, and does it have to be laid down beforehand?
"I don't get up north very often, but isn't cold, icy weather the norm for Wisconsin in January?"
You are correct. Usually it's cold enough that we just get snow. This year Milwaukee has had maybe an inch of snow and temperatures 10 - 20 degrees above normal on many occasions.
I'd much rather deal with the snow than these ice events.
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