Posted on 12/17/2004 8:39:50 AM PST by Saberwielder
BIN LADEN: AN OPEN LETTER TO PETER BERGEN
by B.Raman
Dear Mr.Bergen,
We have never run into each other in any of the innumerable seminars on jihadi terrorism in general and Al Qaeda in particular which I keep attending, but you are one of the few Al Qaeda watchers whose comments I carefully look for and read with attention and respect. Your comments are often tinged with a healthy dose of skepticism which, I have always felt, is an important component of good analysis.
2. Before going to bed on Thursday night, I leant from the TV channels about the latest audio-tape, purportedly of Osama bin Laden, which was posted on the Internet by his followers on December 16,2004, in which he has praised the terrorists responsible for the attack on the US Consulate in Jeddah on December 6,2004, and called for the overthrow of the Saudi ruling family, the intensification of the jihad in Iraq and the use of the oil weapon against the West.
3. I woke up at 3-30 on Friday morning to write my comments on bin Laden's speech. Before starting to type, I browsed the Internet to see what others have said on the subject. I was amazed to find that you have already said what I intended to write. Great minds think alike!
4. Instead of typing my views, let me quote you for the benefit of the readers since I totally agree with what you have said. The CNN has reported as follows on your views:
5.Quote Terrorism expert Peter Bergen said the 10-day period between the Jeddah attack and the release of the tape is the fastest turnaround that he can recall between a news event and a communication from bin Laden.
"It indicates to me a certain degree of security," Bergen said on CNN's "Live Today."
"After all, the chain of custody of these tapes is the one way to find bin Laden. He obviously feels secure enough that he can release a number of these tapes."
"The last message from the al Qaeda leader came in a videotape appearing October 29 on the Arab-language television network Al-Jazeera. His top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, spoke in an audiotape that aired November 29 on Al-Jazeera.
"Bergen said by his count bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have released 29 messages since the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.
"It's extraordinary that the chain of custody of these tapes has not been traced back," Bergen said. "After all, they're releasing these tapes very frequently, on average once every six weeks, yet it seems that American intelligence agencies or other intelligence agencies are not capable of tracing back the source of these tapes." (Citation ends)
6. Dear Mr.Bergen. Your observations and analysis are impeccable. I may add one observation of my own. bin Laden, who generally has his tapes---video or audio---released through the Al Jazeera TV channel, has chosen this time not to do so. At least, not yet. Instead, it has been disseminated first through the Internet. Why? Was the TV channel reluctant to carry it this time due to US pressure? Or was it because he thought the Al Jazeera office in Islamabad is under effective surveillance and that it would be risky to send it there?
7. As you have pointed out, bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have disseminated 29 taped messages since 9/11. As I have been pointing out repeatedly in my articles, almost all these messages were reportedly handed over by unidentified persons to the Al Jazeera correspondent in Islamabad or elsewhere in Pakistan
8. How come there has not been a single instance of interception of any of these couriers from Al Qaeda by the Pakistani security agencies, which do not fail to spot and question a single Pakistani who visits the Indian Embassy in Islamabad? They have a more effective surveillance on the Indian Embassy and its staff than on bin Laden and his operatives and on Al Jazeera office, wherever it is located.
9. Who are the couriers used by Al Qaeda for carrying the tapes of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri to Al Jazeera correspondents without being intercepted by the Police or detected by the USA's Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which has its own surveillance on Al Jazeera ? What is so special about them that they are able to evade detection so successfully?
10. Yes, Mr.Bergen. They are not ordinary couriers. They are special. Very special. They are the serving and retired officers of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who have been helping bin Laden and al-Zawahiri to evade capture and to remain in touch with their followers. Naturally, nobody in Pakistan would dare to stop and search them.
11. You may want to ask: "How do you know this?" It is like asking: 'How do you know what I have under my underwear?"
12. It is so obvious. It is such common knowledge in the police circles of Pakistan. You talk to the police officers of Sindh and Balochistan. They will tell you how a group of serving and retired officers of the ISI has been keeping bin Laden and al-Zawahiri alive and kicking and helping them to remain in touch with their followers.
13. During his recent visit to the US, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf was reported to have said in an interview that the trail for bin Laden has grown cold. It has not. It is there everywhere---from his hide-out wherever it is-- to the offices of the ISI, Al Jazeera and the GHQ in Islamabad and Rawalpindi and to the residences of retired ISI officers.
14. A trail is useful only if you notice it and act on it. If you consciously close your eyes to it, even the best trail will be of no avail.
15. Keep asking the right questions. You will find the truth unless, in the meanwhile, another catastrophe overtakes the USA. God forbid.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow and Convenor, Observer Research Foundation (ORf), Chennai Chapter. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com )
These are pertinent questions. How come we are still closing our eyes to the obvious?
Ping.
StillProud, I remember you creating a database that countered some of the numbers mentioned above.
Raman is a source that FReepers would be well to follow. For years he has been providing first-rate reports on Middle East and South Asia political issues. Thanks for the post.
The most plausible explanation of why Bin Laden/Zawahiri couriers are never arrested by Pakistani forces or the FBI agents in Pakistan is that they are people who cannot be arrested. And the biggest holy cows in Pakistan are Army Generals and ISI officials, who know all and may not tell all.
I cannot for one moment believe that our undercover folks in Pakistan were unable to track any one of over two dozen Al Qaeda tape drops in Pakistan.
I understand that bin Laden has a kidney problem which requires dialysis (about every 6 weeks (?)). There are only a few hospital facilities which can provide that service it that part of the country. (Assuming that he does not have one for his own use). Why not keep a watch (24 hours) on those facilities.
The fact bin Laden is still around means that he is getting regular dialysis. This means that he has some powerful friends around that have the capability to move him undetected where ever he is.
One could assign probabilities as to his location, my guess is Iran (highest), Saudi Arabia, (middle), and Syria (lowest).
Even if he is in Iran, how come so many Bin Laden tapes have been delivered to known Al Jazeera points in Pakistan without any single courier being captured?
What does that tell you? To me it says that Bin Laden has some well connected, bulletproof contacts in Pakistan. Now imagine what person or group of persons in Pakistan are beyond American reach. QED.
HE'S DEAD JIM! DANG I cant find my picture :p
I find it difficult to believe that with the wealth of computer security experts in the U.S., we cannot track the online activities of these thugs.
Virtually all of the backbone service providers in the Middle East are owned by governments. So of course they can track and monitor who's visiting the jihadi Web sites (which are well known even by solo operations such as Internet Hanagah).
As an example, the Dan Pearl murderers were sending their blackmail email to several media outlets (e.g. Wall Street Journal) via Hotmail. What they apparently didn't realize is that Hotmail attaches the source IP address of the sender's workstation to every email. Once that IP was identified, it was easy to trace their location and to ID the Internet cafe. They were picked up within the week. (The last part is my deduction, it wasn't reported this way in the press)
In any case, the same general principles apply to the "couriers" who are posting OBL's and Zawahrji's drivel on the Internet, although the task is slightly more complex.
As mentioned in the article, some of the more recent stuff has gone directly to the Internet without benefit of AJ or human courier.
That was just the latest tape. Do you have any other explanation for the 20 odd other tapes that were delivered to various known Al Jazeera locations in Pakistan since 9/11 but how all couriers escaped?
No. My point is that *in addition* to human couriers, the Internet jihadi sites should be monitored.
Has there been a tacit decision made not to take that route to getting to AQ leadership for the fear of destabilizing Musharraf? Are we letting the tail wag the dog here and let a fear of shaking up Pakistan dictate what we can and cannot do to track Al Qaeda within Pakistan?
Monitoring Internet sites is easier said than done.Most sites opened by Slammic groups have a very short duration for clear purposes-to post a mssg,or a video(showing a beheading).The host govts usually immediately block it,so tracking it is near impossible & it resurfaces with a new name & spaceprovider.
I didn't say it was easy.
Internet Hanagah does a pretty thorough job of tracking them, and has been chastised by various law enforcement agencies for that effort.
In any case, the recent OBL material was on a specific Web site. I don't know which one, but certainly others do. So it is a matter of our guys contacting the host government and asking them to sieze the logs. This doesn't take weeks or even days with a cooperative government. It takes hours.
If the logs prove to be invalid due to proxies, the host gov makes a deal with the ISP: let us monitor this site or go to jail. Someone with Admin rights will eventually touch it again. Proxies may be useful for logfile purposes, but in many cases not for realtime access.
As I said before, it seems obvious that Dan Pearl guys were busted due to their mistakes on the Internet.
Ditto.
One way or another, if Osama bin Laden is alive he is still receiving support from former (and probably present) Pakistani ISI. If they are still alive, I would put a 24 hour NSA watch on retired Pakistan Lt. General Javed Nasir, and retired Gneeral Asad Durrani.
Most people don't realize that between 1980-1988 Osama bin Laden prepared hundreds of tapes for distribution in Saudi mosques and madrassas. I would wager that both Al Jazeera and the Advice and Reform Committee founded in London in 1994 probably knows where many can be located. Years ago I asked a CIA Middle East type if the Agency collected casettes produced by bin Laden, Zawahiri, Qaradawi, et.al. He laughed in my face.
Bingo! To me, that points to the assistance of a nation-state, or at least the unofficial assistance. And that's a pretty small number of possibilities.
he's riding in a sewage truck dressed as an overweight women with a scarf
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