Fallujah II Victory : 2004-11-05 SITREP

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EXCELLENT Fallujah Military Analysis Sources:

WRETCHARD at BELMONT CLUB : 2004-11-01

The Adventures of Chester : 2004-11-01

GLOBAL SECURITY MAPS

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Readers may wish to go to The Adventures of Chester, authored by a Marine veteran of Iraq. He believes the enemy in that town is led by Abu Musab Zarqawi and sketches out the enemy order of battle, which could be from 1 to 8 thousand men.

What is the troop strength of the insurgents in Fallujah? Estimates range from 1000-8000. Does Zarqawi remain in Fallujah? I bet that he is there. After spending months -- actually a year or more -- building a base of support there, it is unlikely that he could replicate anywhere else the command and control that he has built for himself in Fallujah.

Plus, his departure would be very demoralizing to those who remain there (though of course, they may not know his whereabouts themselves). Overall, hard to tell how many bad guys are in Fallujah, but the good news is that the place has been surrounded and cordoned off for a couple of weeks now, and it's a good guess that anyone left inside is only there to fight.

A cleaner, less confusing battlefield is good for us and bad for them. Also, if Zarqawi hasn't left yet, he ain't getting out now.

Chester points out that while Fallujah is an important objective, it's seizure must be part of the entire reduction of the Al-Anbar insurgent strongholds. Therefore Ramadi is likely to be reduced as well. For more on the possible timings and directions of assault, go to his site.

The upcoming offensive is getting more and more press, more and more frequently. My initial focus was on Fallujah, but now on second thought I think it a certainty that Ramadi is going to be hit too.

Look for 5th Marines to hit Ramadi, 1st Marines to assault Fallujah, and 7th Marines to continue guarding the Syrian border in the West, and possibly act as an operational reserve. They've probably shifted a good bit of the armor that is normally a part of 7th Marines (like 1st Tank Battalion) over to either 1st or 5th. Bet on it.

1st Marines is a brigade-sized force of about 3 thousand men and the other units are of the same size, all part of the First Marine Division.

Chester's exposition above reveals a great deal about the nature of the conflict the US is facing in Iraq. The deployments suggest that Syria is the operational rear of the insurgents in the Sunni Triangle, which is why 7th Marines has been positioned to interdict the infiltration flow. The infiltration trickle finds its way to various sumps, or collection areas, where they are concentrated, tasked and launched out on attacks. Ramadi and Fallujah are probably typical of these. As Chester pointed out, they serve as command and control and probably training bases.

1st Marines will be supported by attachments, such as a logistics group and both aerial and artillery fires. The Iraqi component may consist of a slightly smaller force.

The possible ground force deployed against Fallujah will be on the order of 5,000 men of whom about 3 thousand will be American. A glance at a large scale map (courtesy of Global Security) will give the reader a feel for the terrain.

The enemy has attempted a spoiling attack on a convoy of Marines, possibly a support unit, was hit as it made its way to Fallujah's outskirts today. Eight Marines were killed and the Iraqi troops accompanying them returned fire which may have killed 14 civilians in vehicles on the highway. The pre-battle maneuver may have started in earnest.

On Saturday, insurgents fired mortars at Marine positions outside Fallujah. U.S. troops responded with "the strongest artillery barrage in recent weeks," according to Marine spokesman 1st Lt. Lyle Gilbert. Later in the afternoon, a Marine Harrier jet bombed a guerrilla mortar position inside Fallujah, then strafed it with machine-gun fire, Gilbert said. He had no reports of insurgent casualties. Crowds of Iraqis peered skyward as a pair of warplanes circled over the rebel-held city, where large explosions rumbled Saturday afternoon. Insurgents fired rockets and mortars toward U.S. Marine positions.

Fallujah watchers will have noticed that the Marines are closing out a last round of negotiations for surrender while they have been progressively shutting down insurgent checkpoints within the city by hitting them with smart munitions.

My own speculation is that the negotiations were launched, not in the expectation of getting Zarqawi to lay down his arms, but in order to negotiate a separate peace with the different factions in town. The impending assault has been used as a negotiating lever to create gaps in the enemy ranks. This process is calculated to blind the enemy by shutting down his pickets and poison his intelligence channels -- not to mention introducing mutual suspicion and internecine fighting.

The main event next week will doubtless be the Presidential elections but for Marines in Anbar, their minds may will be on matters closer at hand.

US ORDER OF BATTLE

The Black Watch and 1st The Queen's Dragoon Guards are moving from their relatively quiet neighborhood in southern Iraq to the outskirts of western Baghdad. This will allow the I Marine Expeditionary Force's 1st Marine Division, which is based in Al-Anbar province to shift an extra battalion to the Fallujah/Ramadi area, probably to use as a tactical reserve.

My guess is that the attack will be prosecuted by the 1st Marine Regiment, with appropriate attachments, supported by CSSB-1 and given air support by at least a full Marine Air Group.

The forces that go in will be based in the MEK Training Camp, or Al Taqaddum Airbase (note: this is all publicly available information).

I think it is safe to guess that it will take the British forces about a week to get settled into their new area of operations. They should take at least a week to get to know the area with the Marines they are relieving. For a permanent relief, two-four weeks would be more accurate, but I think the shift of British troops is a temporary move -- maybe for six weeks tops for the course of the battle and the cleanup.

In addition to 1st Marines, the order of battle will include at least a 3:2 ratio of US to Iraqi forces (same as Samarra): I estimate this at around 2000 to 3000 Marines on the ground, with 1300-2000 Iraqi forces attached to the regiment.

Globalstrategy.org is also reporting that around 1000 members of the Army's 10th Special Forces Group have recently been deployed from Colorado, with no mention of where they are going.

The article states that the only two possible destinations for these Green Berets are: to find Osama bin Laden, or to reinforce Marine units preparing to assault Fallujah.

I don't think they are going to the Paki-Afghani border. Not only do I think that Osama is most likely dead (why haven't we heard from him in 2 and 1/2 years?), but I also think that in the estimation of the Pentagon and the Bush administration, events on the ground in Iraq, especially those involving Zarqwai, are a greater threat to US stratgey than is the finding of Osama at this particular moment.

Would Green Berets be helpful with Marines? Not so sure about this one. Usually you would want to train for a good bit together before adding them to the mix, so you could be sure that your techniques and theirs are mutually understandable. This would not be the case though, if the ODA teams are going to be given a very specific mission, like manhunts, or lasing targets, or using the their language skills in a civil-affairs role after the fight.

Or you could give them a particular part of the battlespace, like a certain neighborhood or area where their skills might work best. Another idea: let's assume that the US has VERY GOOD ground intelligence on the locations and activities of the insurgent forces. This is a safe assumption given the time put in to developing and working with Iraqi National Forces, and because of the number of successful precision airstrikes that we've pulled off lately.

The thing that could make those intelligence sources really sing in a productive manner, and decrease our decision cycle greatly, would be to link them up with US forces that speak Arabic and have expertise in targeting and urban pursuit.

My overall opinion: if you see 1000 Green Berets show up in Fallujah, the reason they will be there is their Arabic skills, only a few dozen will participate in the fight, and the rest will roll in during the aftermath for intelligence exploitation. One thousand is a TON of Green Berets though. A thousand would normally be employed over a very large area. You just don't mass those troops on the battlefield.

But this campaign has seen stranger things . . . another way to employ a large number would be if they were going to integrate with Iraqi National Forces for the battle. But again, you don't do this without some extensive training together. At this point in the game, whoever has been training the Iraqis and working with them is going to continue to do so. They're not going to bring in any pinch-hitters here in the ninth inning.

THE BARBARIAN ORDER OF BATTLE

What is the troop strength of the insurgents in Fallujah? Estimates range from 1000-8000. Does Zarqawi remain in Fallujah? I bet that he is there. After spending months -- actually a year or more -- building a base of support there, it is unlikely that he could replicate anywhere else the command and control that he has built for himself in Fallujah. Plus, his departure would be very demoralizing to those who remain there (though of course, they may not know his whereabouts themselves).

Overall, hard to tell how many bad guys are in Fallujah, but the good news is that the place has been surrounded and cordoned off for a couple of weeks now, and it's a good guess that anyone left inside is only there to fight. A cleaner, less confusing battlefield is good for us and bad for them. Also, if Zarqawi hasn't left yet, he ain't getting out now.

THE LENGTH OF THE BATTLE AND CASUALTIES

The downside to having cordoned off the city and given the Iraqis an ultimatum is that it gives them plenty of time to prepare for our assault. If they are truly skilled, they can plan an intricate defense-in-depth, fighting to the very last man, booby-trapping the city, clearing fields of fire, setting up minefields etc. This will make things a little more difficult for us, but not much. We know how to deal with such defenses -- just will make things drag a little more.

And the aerial intelligence on a detailed level that the US can gather from assets like the Predator UAVs cannot be discounted. More than likely we've also got a team or two of reconnaissance Marines sitting quietly on a rooftop during the day and watching everything like crazy at night.

The longer we wait to attack, the better the insurgent defenses get. The flip side is that the better our intelligence gets as well.

How long will the battle last? Robert D. Kaplan, the Atlantic Monthly columnist, was embedded with Marines in Fallujah during the April uprising. Only two battalions participated in that assault, and Kaplan estimates that they had taken 20% of the city in five days. How to guess here? Figure larger American force, plus a new Iraqi National Force, larger enemy force, much better intelligence for us.

I think we can take the entire city in two weeks, three tops. For more of Kaplan's description of that battle, see the Atlantic's June/July issue (note; I think this is subscriber-only content).

NEGOTIATIONS WON'T WORK

Don't expect there to be a political settlement if you assume:

1. There are foreign fighters in some number in the city.

2. We cannot tolerate foreign fighters.

3. The Interim gov't must flex its muscles over the entire country, not just the majority of it.

4. The sheiks are not going to turn in the foreign fighters.

5. The foreign fighters aren't just going to pick up and go home.

Face it. The bad guys have coalesced in Fallujah and other similar places. Now we have to kick over the ant bed and kill whatever crawls out.

THE DECISIVE BATTLE OF THE IRAQ CAMPAIGN

Destroying the insurgency in Fallujah will be the second decisive battle of the entire Iraqi campaign. The first was in Baghdad in April of 2003. That signalled the end of Saddam's regime and the beginning of something completely new and different.

Fallujah is not only the center of gravity of the entire insurgency, offering a source of refuge, capital, psychological motivation, munitions, and command and control to the anti-Iraqi insurgents, but it is also a psychological strong point in the Arab mind throughout the region. Check out the references to Fallujah in popular music, as mentioned in this Marine Corps Times article. Cleaning the place out will strike a very powerful blow that will reverberate throughout the region.

The attack will begin on or about November 3rd. Bush cannot afford a casualty spike before the election. But he also cannot wait any longer, whether he wins or not. There must be enough time before January for the battle to be completed, a new government installed in Fallujah, the psychological victory to be pursued in other cities, and intelligence found there to be acted upon.

This battle will have an incredible impact on the legitimacy of the Iraqi government, the participation in elections, and the overall course of the entire Iraqi theater. As soon as the US election is over, look for the battle to begin.

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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.

General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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2005-11-05 Update

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Observations by Chester the Marine

Phase One is continuing . . .

In today's news, we find that shaping actions are continuing in Fallujah.

Fallujah-Ramadi Operations Update Nov 4, 2004

FALLUJAH, Iraq -- Iraqi Security Forces and the I Marine Expeditionary Force - Multi-National Forces-West - continue to degrade and disrupt anti-Iraqi forces in the Fallujah-Ramadi area. I Marine Expeditionary Force employed U.S. Air Force aviation assets to deliver precision munitions to destroy preplanned targets in southern Fallujah.

In the last 12 hours, Multi-National Forces-West conducted coordinated offensive operations in and around the Fallujah-Ramadi area. The I Marine Expeditionary Force destroyed several barricaded fighting positions.

At 12:20 a.m., Thursday, a U.S. Air Force aircraft, supporting a U.S. Marine Corps element, struck a preplanned target with precision weapons, striking known anti-Iraqi barricaded fighting positions in the northeastern part of the city.

At 12:50 a.m., Thursday, U.S. Air Force aircraft, supporting a U.S. Marine Corps element, destroyed several known fighting barricaded positions, which were also preplanned. The mission occurred in the southeast.

Since Monday, the Multi-National Forces-West recovered and subsequently destroyed 129 mortars, 39 artillery shells, 37 RPGs, 12 rockets, 7 mines, 126 detonators, 350 electronic timers, 16 blasting caps, 3 sticks of dynamite and more than a thousand rounds of ammunition.

Multi-National Forces-West is determined to return the Fallujah-Ramadi area to the peaceful people of Iraq.

For more information, contact the I MEF Media Team at IMEFMEDIATEAM@IMEFDM.USMC.MIL

These have thus far included:

-an increase in airstrikes against prepared enemy positions, command and control nodes, and weapons caches

-some very aggressive patrolling on the outskirts of the city -- this is building expectations in the minds of the enemy that we are serious and committed.

-press releases which highlight the resolve of US forces (every single press release from I MEF for the past few days has ended with a phrase like, "We will not stop until Fallujah has been returned to the Iraqi government."

-final unit positioning

I continue with my assessment that we are in the shaping phase of the campaign. Here is how I estimate this operation will go:

Phase I: Shaping Actions: We're seeing this now, as described above.

Phase II: Ground Assault. The mission will be to remove anti-Iraq forces (AIF) from power within Fallujah and other cities. The beginning of this phase may be event-driven. When this starts, watch the press releases very closely. "Defeat" means we will try to break their will to fight. "Destroy" means we will physically destroy the enemy forces. Both of course involve combat, but to differing degrees and with different objectives.

Phase III: Exploitation and Reconstruction: I expect that our victory will be followed swiftly with very aggressive moves to pursue any fleeing enemy forces, and to immediately move in to reconstruct the city, flooding it with Civil Affairs teams, probably interacting with Iraqi National forces. Our victory will be advertised a great deal in the Iraqi national and Arab regional media (more than just the token headlines we'll get in the US and Europe). Intelligence exploitation teams will be sifting through everything (and everyone) they can get their hands on too.

An alert reader, 'cjr' has mentioned that perhaps we are attempting to use the same method with Fallujah as the Brits did in Basrah: that is, wait outside the city and gather intelligence, then have lightning strikes inside to quickly defeat bad guys, then quietly moving back to the perimeter. I am too unfamiliar with the British actions in Basrah to comment on this yet, but my first thoughts are: who were they fighting, insurgents or bypassed Iraqi military units? My gut tells me we will have a fast, violent assault, and my gut tells me we have excellent intelligence on the positions and dispositions of enemy forces.

A question for you analytical types: presumably, the insurgency is a result of an Iraqi Army that melted away under the US onslaught, found itself linking up with foreign fighters, and now is funded from both domestic sources and abroad. The question is, what keeps the fighters from leaving, melting into the populace and dispersing from their concentration in the city? I think there are two answers:

First, they still think they can win. Battles are won or lost in the minds of the commanders, and they still have hope in their minds.

Second, the sanctuary of weaponry, local political support, command and control infrastructure (however sophisticated), and ready ties to cash sources cannot be picked up and moved. I've touched on this earlier when I mention why I think Zarqawi is still in the city. I'm not saying that small bands of insurgents can'tleave, posing as civilians and setting up shop elsewhere. What I'm saying is that by doing so, they will completely cut themselves off from command and control from above, and will no longer be able to mass in a single place. The US won't let this happen again. Therefore, if some small groups do leave, even if they are successful afterwards in some bombings or beheadings, eventually they will run out of steam without the logistical, moral, and command support that can be readily found when they have coalesced in a physical place.

Another topic floating around in the news: Have the Iraqi forces that will fight alongside the Marines bee infiltrated with insurgents? I think not. I have no doubt that insurgents have been successful in hiding themselves amongst many of the fledgling Iraqi units, but I think that the ones going into the Sunni triange will be heavily vetted. And we only need a few thousand out of the total (which is over 100,000) to put an Iraqi face on the victory. And the units fighting with us will be vets of other battles, like Samarra. If there are insurgents amongst them, why wouldn't they have disrupted that battle? It seems to have gone off with few problems.

A reader asks in the comments section how I can know what is going on if I'm not there. Excellent question. Short answer: educated guesswork. I was a staff officer involved in planning before, during and after the invasion. Though I was in nary a firefight, figuring out the big picture was my job. I should note that I am not going to post anything that I think will endanger our boys. I have some pretty wild ideas about the ground assault that I will keep to myself. I am a combat engineer by training and the idea of going into a fortified city has my creative juices flowing . . .

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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.

General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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U.S. launches assault on strongholds near Syrian border

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COMMonday, November 1, 2004

BAGHDAD – The United States has launched a military offensive near the Iraqi-Syrian border.

U.S. officials said the military offensive focused on several major Sunni insurgency strongholds in the Anbar province, which borders Syria.

They said the strongholds comprised Faluja and Ramadi, two cities said to be controlled by insurgents, particularly those loyal to the former Saddam Hussein regime as well as Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi.

[On Monday, 18 people were killed when a rocket slammed into a hotel in Tikrit, Middle East Newsline reported. The U.S. military said the rocket was apparently fired by insurgents in an attack on a U.S. military camp in the city.]

U.S. fighter-jets struck suspected Al Zarqawi strongholds in Faluja on Sunday while insurgents countered with mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and roadside bombs. Faluja was said to be the base of Al Zarqawi.

In Ramadi, 50 kilometers west of Faluja, about 2,000 U.S. forces struck insurgency strongholds in the city.

At least nine U.S. Marines were killed in fighting over the weekend, regarded as the heaviest in weeks around Faluja. Another nine were reportedly injured in preparations for what appeared to be a ground offensive against Faluja, which harbors about 2,000 insurgents. On Monday, residents were said to be fleeing Faluja to avoid being entangled in the expected U.S. attack.

So far, about 3,000 suspected insurgents have been captured in Iraq over the last week. Officials said they were identified largely as members of the former Saddam regime and loyal to former Vice President Izzet Ibrahim Al Douri.

Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Alawi said Al Douri's deputy and his assistant were captured in the operation. The prime minister told a news conference on Sunday that the Iraqi military operation was continuing.

"In a very short time we have arrested 3,000 gunmen who were working under Izzat Al Douri," Prime Minister Iyad Alawi said.

Alawi said Iraqi authorities also arrested 167 suspected Islamist insurgents over the past few weeks. The prime minister said most of them were foreign Arab nationals and included four senior Tawhid operatives. The operatives were identified as Abu Anas Al Shami, a Palestinian, Abu Mohammed Al Lubnani, from Lebanon, Abu Ahmed Al Tabuki, from Saudi Arabia and Abu Omar Al Masri, an Egyptian.

"Anyone who does not fulfill Iraqi government decisions in terms of the rule of law will be pursued," Alawi said.

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