U.S. House Race Predictions

October 31, 2004

[Clintonfatigued]

Colorado District 3: state Rep. Ken Salazar will defeat Greg Walcher, whose past support for transferring water from Western Slope to Denver is an Achilles Heel in this drought-plagued district. Dem. Pickup.

Illinois District 8: Congressman Phil Crane has been caught napping, and the collapse of the Illinois G.O.P. will combine to elect Melissa Bean. Dem. Pickup.

Kansas Distrcit 3: In a minor surprise, conservative Kris Kobach will very narrowly defeat Congressman Dennis Moore. A recount is possible. Rep. Pickup.

Louisiana District 7: There will be a runoff between Lafayette surgeon Charles Boustany and Lake Charles state Senator Willie Mount, in which geography is as important as party and issues. The Lafayette Catholic candidate always wins these runoffs, and will again in a close race. Rep. Pickup.

North Carolina District 11: Charles Taylor has held this diverse, marginal mountain district since 1990, despite numerous controversies. His luck has run out, and he'll lose to Buncombe County Commissioner Patsy Keever. Dem. Pickup.

Oregon District 1: There is scandal in the wind, and it will blow David Wu out of Congress. Goli Ameri will make history as the first Iranian immigrant to serve in Congress. Rep. Pickup.

Pennsylvania District 17: Congressman Tim Holden has performed a political balancing act for years, winning votes from blue-collar, working-class folks with a combination of economic liberalism and social conservatism. He'll finally fall off the high wire without a net, narrowly losing to Scott Paterno. Rep. Pickup.

South Dakota AL: Stephanie Herseth won a close one in the June special election against state Senator Larry Diedrich. It will be another close one, but Diedrich will finish first this time. Rep. Pickup.

Texas District 1: Congressman Max Sandlin isn't the worst of his caucus, but he's no Zell Miller. Smith County Judge John Gohmert will unseat him by a fair margin. Rep. Pickup.

Texas District 2: Ex-Harris County Judge Ted Poe is a local celebrity, and the district as it stands now is in no mood for liberal representation. Nick Lampson will lose decisively, and the fact he's already looking for another office to run for proves he knows it. Rep. Pickup.

Texas District 19: Charlie Stenholm and Randy Neugabauer have been thrown into a district that solidly favors Neugabauer. Neugabauer won when the boundries were set, though Stenholm will run ahead of party lines.

Texas District 32: Good riddance Martin Frost! He and Pete Sessions were thrown together into a district that leans Republican. Martin Frost has run a much better campaign, but is too liberal to win here.

[Clintonfatigued]

House ping

[The Old Hoosier]

I think Taylor and Wu will both hang on. But Kobach ain't going to win.

[rushmom]

Net +6 Republicans.

[tagawgrag]

Are these your predictions. Also whats the word on Simmons (R-CT-6) and Shays(R-CT-2) These are tight!!!

[Paul8148]

Out here in CA Costa Should of hold on to the Dooley for the Dems fairly easy, but his attacks on Breast Cancer agaisnt Ashburn backfire and will make it a very close race......But Costa still wins.

Also I think Garner will lose pretty easy over Parra and not by 256 votes like last time. The attacks on his business records is hurting him with Republicans I talk to who will just not vote in that race. (This is for the state house.)

[COEXERJ145]

Left out TX-17.

Liberal Democrat Chet Edwards will defeat Republican Arlene Wolgemuth by a wide margin

[Kuksool]

The IL-08 is trending into a ticket splitting district. I expect Bush and Obama to carry the district. Hiwever I don't think Phil Crane will lose. He has too much seniority. David Wu, Dennis Moore, Charles Taylor, and Tim Holden should survive re-election.

[Torie]

Alas except for Texas, I disagree with ALL of your calls, each and every one. LOL. Your prediction of Holden losing is particularly, way, way, out there, out beyond Pluto somewhere. Cheers.

[onyx]

I am more hopeful than certain...
but Clinton LeSeuer will defeat
that horrid democrat Bennie Thompson
in Mississippi's 2nd district.

I have a LeSeuer sign in my yard.

[BillyBoy]

Yeah, Melissa "the abortion Queen" Bean will be elected in a district that is 70% Republican and the most affluent region in Illinois. And if you believe that, Shelia Jackson Lee will be unseat in Texas SOLELY becuase she's done a lousy job and the TX Dems got wiped out on the STATEWIDE level, right?

If Crane (who got 57% last time WITHOUT lifting a finger) is sooooo damn "vulernable" how come the DCCC won't even put up $$$ to run ads for Melissa Rodham Bean? Maybe they checked his vote totals:

2002: 57.4%
2000: 61.8%
1998: 68.6%
1996: 62.2%
1994: 65.9%
1992: 56.3% (put away the crack pipe, Melissa, 2002 was NOT his “weakest” showing ever)
1990: 82.1%
1988: 75.5%
1986: 78.4%
1984: 78.5%
1982: 66.0%
1980: 74.2%
1978: 80.1%
1976: 73.2%
1974: 61.3%
1972: 74.1%
1970: 58.5%
1969: 58.2%

Yeah! This guy is barely clinging to his district. He cranks out a measley 60-70% of the vote most of the time! In the last election he won nearly the SAME comfortable margin that he had 30 years ago when the district was “so much more right-wing than the moderate district today” Republicans outnumber RATs by a tiny ratio of 3-1! We all know those armies of successful Republican businessmen in Barrington can’t wait to vote for a socialist endorsed by Planned Parenthood, the IVI-IPO, and the AFL-CIO!

And incidentially, those 2002 numbers were from a brand new district when he didn't even lift a finger to campaign. Crane is working his butt off in this election.

I'm calling this race as 61%-Crane, 37%-Rodham Bean, 2%-Libertarian guy.

[deport]

The Lafayette Catholic candidate always wins these runoffs, and will again in a close race. Rep. Pickup.

---

I wouldn't discount the Lake Charles Catholic and democrat in this race even though she will be the 2nd place runner in the Nov. 2 race. This district has been represented by the democrats out of Crowley LA for many years including Edwin Edwards, John Breaux and Chris John.

[HostileTerritory]

Polling for Simmons is close with a large number of undecideds. Hard to tell. He surprised everyone by winning in 2000, so I think you have to give him the edge. It is a middle-of-the-road district for Ct.

Chris Shays has benefited from a solid moderate RINO base in the district. It will probably go for Kerry. If Bridgeport turns out in big numbers, and people don't split tickets, Shays could be in trouble. But I'd be surprised.

[deport]

Alas except for Texas, I disagree with ALL of your calls, each and every one. LOL.

---

Well a guy has got to get his feet wet sometime........

[Kuksool]

Obama is doing radio ads for Melissa Beam but I doubt it will help not with Bush on top of the ticket.

[Reagan Man]

Colorado District 3: state Rep. Ken Salazar will defeat Greg Walcher ...

Looks like Greg Walcher is gonna lose, just not to Ken Salazar, rather his brother John Salazar. Ken Salazar is running against Pete Coors for the Senate. Coors is gonna win too.

[familyop]

"Colorado District 3: state Rep. Ken Salazar will defeat Greg Walcher..."

Huh? Isn't Salazar the Colorado Attorney General, and isn't he running for the Senate against Pete Coors?

Are there two Ken Salazars in Colorado?

[familyop]

You answered just as I posted my comment. And thanks!

[Bonaventure]

Simmons is in real danger. Shays will probably pull through, although polls suggest the truly awful Diane Ferrell (first selectwoman of ultraliberal Westport) is within striking distance.

[Busywhiskers]

I think you are right about Wu, (I live in his district). Even though we have the attempted rape scandal and a strong candidate in Goli, the 1st district unfortunately includes a hunk of Portland and the leftist there would vote for anyone with a "D" after their name.

[Clinging Bitterly]

...scandal...will blow David Wu out of Congress...

No it won't. It's only about sex. A sex crime, but for an elected Democrat that's just sex (maybe that's the only way they can get it). He'll lose the votes of the few Democrats who value morals and decency, but that won't be enough.

[Dave Olson]

Ken Salazar is running for Senate. It's his brother John who's running for District 3 Rep.

[Dave Olson]

Oops! I just noticed your question was already answered. Sorry about that.

[tagawgrag]

Simmons was up by three today in UCONN poll I believe.. But its tight, lots of undecideds. I am hoping to be at his election night party. He is getting a lot grief for supporting Bush and the war!!

[Torie]

Hey, you have a chance to meet a freeper. I just don't see a strong enough Kerry tide to take Shays and Simmons down. Bush is doing better in the Commie Belt than last time. He's wasting a lot of his votes there. They need to be shipped to the midwest.

[jwalsh07]

Hey, you have a chance to meet a freeper.

Who's that?

I just don't see a strong enough Kerry tide to take Shays and Simmons down. Bush is doing better in the Commie Belt than last time. He's wasting a lot of his votes there. They need to be shipped to the midwest.

Simmons will win. I wrote a few letters to the editor, which were published btw, assuring the NE Ct folks that I was a conservative, I know conservatives and Rep Simmons is no conservative. He is a moderate with experience as a soldier and intel guy whose experience dwarfs the oppposition who is perhaps a nice fellow but has no experience at all in the ways of the world. That made Simmons acceptable. LOL

Shays always wins.

[jwalsh07]

Hey, you have a chance to meet a freeper.

Who's that?

I just don't see a strong enough Kerry tide to take Shays and Simmons down. Bush is doing better in the Commie Belt than last time. He's wasting a lot of his votes there. They need to be shipped to the midwest.

Simmons will win. I wrote a few letters to the editor, which were published btw, assuring the NE Ct folks that I was a conservative, I know conservatives and Rep Simmons is no conservative. He is a moderate with experience as a soldier and intel guy whose experience dwarfs the oppposition who is perhaps a nice fellow but has no experience at all in the ways of the world. That made Simmons acceptable. LOL

Shays always wins.

[Torie]

The guy going to the Simmons election night party. It is odd. It is just possible that NO House seats will change hands in the entire United States, except in Texas. Isn't that amazing? The gerrymanderers simply are that good now. Granted, Buffalo is tight because the Pubbies have a superior candidate, and Colorado 3 is tight because of the reverse, and the Lucas seat is a poll free zone. I suspect that the Lucas seat is probably the most likely in the nation now to switch parties.

The Senate just looks better and better. Our loose cannon is now ready to roll around in DC, smashing the furniture. It should be fun.

[Fresh Wind]

It looks like PA-8 is a hold for the good guys (actually, an improvement), with Mike Fitzpatrick replacing RINO Greenwood on the ticket. Mike is pro-life, vs. the pro-death Greenwood. Mike's opponent, leftist Ginny Schrader walked out of a debate when Mike refused to apologize for a mailer which she found offensive (which he wasn't responsible for). Apparently, she aired Farenheit 911 at a campaign event, and the flyer accused her of hating America and mentioned the Hezbollah offer to distribute the movie.

More on the walkout:

http://blog.dccc.org/mt/archives/001477.html

See the flyer:

http://www.ginnyschrader.com/pressreleases/Schrader1.jpg

[Amish]

pretty perceptive picks...

But I think Crane will hold off the Bean, and that the GOP sweep in NC will work to taylor's advantage. But I'd trade them both to see a Clinton LeSeuer win.

And I don't think Korbach will pick up. Holden losing would be a surprise --- I think Hostetler would have been a stronger candidate, but the Paterno name may do it.

Looks like jeff davis will be a pick up in Ky.

Other dark horses I see include Tim Escobar in Cal., Jeanne Patterson in Mo., and maybe Virginia Johnson in NC.

[Clintonfatigued]

The latest poll by The Ashville Citizen-Times shows Keever edging ahead by 43.5% to 41.2%.

[Clintonfatigued]

I predict that Rob Simmons will win reelection by a microscopic margin, with a possible recount. Chris Shays will also win, though by his closest margin yet.

[Clintonfatigued]

"If Crane is sooooo damn "vulernable" how come the DCCC won't even put up $$$ to run ads for Melissa Rodham Bean?"

The DCCC bought $550,000 worth of television time in Crane's district this week.

[Clintonfatigued]

Willie Mount is a Methodist. Every runoff in this district in recent history (1965 special, 1972, 1986, 1996) has been between a Lafayette or Crowley-based Cajun Catholic and a Lake Charles-based Anglo-Saxon Protestant. Though Boustany is mostly Lebanese in heritage, I expect the pattern to repeat itself. You're correct in not ruling out a Mount victory, though.

[Clintonfatigued]

It is John Salazar, my mistake.

[deport]

Willie Mount is a Methodist.

---

Brain disfunction on my part..... Don't know what I was thinking. I just think she'll run strong in her senatorial district and still draw well in Acadania

[MplsSteve]

I think that'd be great if LeSeuer won.

A black Republican holding a seat like that...well, it's be huge.

But the Dem numbers are just too big in that district for a GOP candidate to overcoem, right?

[onyx]

LeSeuer got 44% of the vote last time
against Thompson, and at that time,
LeSeuer had no campaign money and was
virtually unknown. I think he just
might eke out a victory this time.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I'm predicting we'll beat Salazar's little brother by 50%-48%, the same margin by which we'll beat Ken Salazar for the Senate.

Crane may have been "caught napping," but just like Bunning he'll win reelection one last time because of the conbservative tilt of his district.

[Clintonfatigued]

"Yeah, Melissa "the abortion Queen" Bean will be elected in a district that is 70% Republican and the most affluent region in Illinois. And if you believe that, Shelia Jackson Lee will be unseat in Texas SOLELY becuase she's done a lousy job and the TX Dems got wiped out on the STATEWIDE level, right?"