Looking good!!
Posted on 10/31/2004 8:46:16 AM PST by veronica
MASON DIXON - A PRETTY GOOD MEASURING STICK [10/31 11:13 AM]
Mason Dixon was the most correct pollster in 2002, picking the right winner in 22 out of 23 polls. Their average error on each candidate was 1.8 percent.
Their results released Saturday night:
Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 45
Arkansas: Bush 51, Kerry 43
Colorado: Bush 50, Kerry 43
Ohio: Bush 48, Kerry 46
Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 44
Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 45
Missouri: Bush 49, Kerry 45
New Hampshire: Kerry 47, Bush 45
Nevada: Bush 50, Kerry 44
West Virginia: Bush 51, Kerry 43
Oregon: Kerry 50, Bush 44
Pennsylvania: Kerry 48, Bush 46
Wisconsin: Kerry 48, Bush 46
Minnesota: Bush 48, Kerry 47
New Mexico: Bush 49, Kerry 45
(By comparison, in 2002 Zogby picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 17, with an average error on each candidate by 2.5.)
I hope they are just as accurate with presidential politics. Is this their last poll before Tuesday?
This gets us to 296 a comfortable victory.
This gets us to 296 a comfortable victory.
Rasmussen will come out in the next 10 min.
are these their last poll numbers?
Well considering the other tracking polls showed Kerry with a good friday I assume Rasmussen will have the race tied or Kerry ahead.
Does their poll include newly registered voters?
Man, Rasmussen will probably have it tied.
Odds favor Bush: Here is some math:
Assume for a moment that Bush takes Florida.
Then assume that MN, IA, WI, NM, OH are each equally likely to go to Bush or Kerry. 50-50 chance each.
There are then 32 different possible combinations of wins and losses for these five states. (2^5)
Of the 32 combinations, 26 would give Bush a win. (26/32)
That's 81%
There are other possibilities: MI, HI, etc. that would increase that number.
Yes on these states as they are commissioned differently by different organisations....they are very very good as Jim points out...Jim by the way is really very good at Kerry Spot and his work is getting better. Also remember that this poll was taken at the height of the news cycle on the Explosives and should be even better now as we are in the Osomo news cycle but it won't show up really on the tracking polls as they are behind but they will see it today as the democrates already have that Bush is getting a lift......imho.
I am still a bit nervous because anything can happen between now and the time the polls close on Tuesday. But I believe the state polls are a better indicator at this time than the nationals, and am relatively convinced that we are going to see a comfortable electoral college win for the President.
Looking good!!
Rasmussen with leaners has Bush by 1 today!
I wanted to avoid the polls this weekend but I can't. I wonder if the military vote is counted in all these polls. And the increased republican turnout. The evangelical christians our going to be out in full force tuesday. I believe the gay marriage issue is on the ballot in Ohio. That's got to help. Jim
Is it even out yet for today? I can't access it yet.
purty maps there. Wonder how the tradesports are doing today.
The weakness there is assuming that Bush and Kerry have 50% chances to win each of those states. Ideally you'd use some kind of poll aggregate to determine how likely it is for each candidate to win. According to RCP, OH is 50-50, Iowa and NM are above 50% for Bush, and Wisconsin and Minnesota are below 50% for Bush. Would be interesting to see how it comes out, maybe I'll try to crunch the numbers now.
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