Posted on 10/30/2004 11:59:57 PM PDT by crushelits
The "Writing Partner Who Wishes To Remain Nameless"
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| Until Friday, we were prepared to predict a Bush victory by a thin margin. We thought Bush would win with 51% of the vote, a landslide by modern standards as no president since George H. W. Bush has won with a majority of the popular vote. In the end we feel that President Bush has run an okay campaign, but one that did not live up to its potential. For example, he and his team made a fetish out of the phrase "flip-flop" and clung to it much longer than was necessary or useful. As a corollary, they were too late in painting John Kerry as a dangerous liberal who has been on the wrong side of every major international quandary throughout his public life. From Vietnam to the Cold War, and now the war on terror, John Kerry has consistently given our sworn enemies the benefit of the doubt. And for that he ought to have been condemned early and often. We were prepared to predict a Bush victory primarily because of the embarrassing effort by John Kerry. Early on he allowed the fringiest of elements to control the political debate in our country. Michael Moore, Bruce Springsteen, 60 Minutes, Hollywood libertines. These people were the voice of Kerry's party for too long. When Kerry finally did speak out, he made a fool of himself. Yes, he did flip-flop. Badly. Boldly. He also has made a habit of asserting things that are by no means indisputable. The promise of French participation in Iraq, his own war record, Tora Bora, the 377 tons of missing explosives, the state of our economy, you name it and John Kerry has built a case against President Bush with dubious facts, incomplete information and sometimes outright lies. Obsessed with hating Bush, Kerry and his ilk never formulated a comprehensive, understandable, and desirable worldview for voters to cling too. Far from a ringing endorsement of President Bush's first four years, we were prepared to predict a Bush victory because the alternative was too risky at this, our nation's most uncertain hour. But then Osama bin Laden reemerged. And all that uncertainty, all that anxiety, all that frustration resurfaced. In short, all the elements we believed would result in a Bush victory have been amplified four days before the election. And it will result in a Bush landslide. Are we crazy? Perhaps. But the bin Laden tape is the singular defining moment in this campaign. "I voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it." "It's hard work." "don't think we can win it [the war on terror.]" "You must pass the test … the, the global test." These utterances kept us entertained. But they will not be remembered in the same way as "there you go again," Willie Horton, or Al Gore's exaggerated, arrogant sighs. But the bin Laden tape will. Sure, the Left will try to spin it. The fact that bin Laden is alive even to make a tape is proof of Bush's incompetence, they will say. John Kerry will hunt down and kill Osama bin Laden, they will say. John Kerry can run a more effective war against terror, they will say. But no one will believe them. That's because in the final analysis, all of John Kerry's body language, all of John Kerry's symbols, the very leitmotif of the Kerry campaign points to terrorists like Osama bin Laden and says, "let's run from them." On the flipside, everything about George W. Bush points to the terrorist and says "let's kill them." This distinction will not be lost on voters simply because George W. Bush underperformed in the first debate, prospects in Iraq look grim, and Osama is still alive. Americans will reward President Bush a second term in high fashion. Expect our dear president to receive 55% of the vote and, roughly, 300 Electors. You have their prediction now give yours: |
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Prediction of Writing Partner Who Wishes to Remain Nameles |
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Except when dealing with articles he wrote for other publications, or when he discusses what he does as a campaign professional, Pat Hynes and I have purposely ensured that everything on this site is done on behalf of crushkerry.com. For example, our readers never know if it's Pat or I that write the feature articles or post the comments in the "Observations" section. Same with the rest of the site features. But now that we're down to prediction time it's only fair that we each step out on our own and give our individual predictions. My prediction for this Tuesday is a bit different than my partner. Before wading through my prediction, keep in mind that Pat is in the campaign business and I'm not and has seen more of this up close than I have. However, also keep in mind that about 6 months before the New Hampshire primary he was telling me Bob Graham would win the nomination. No, in all seriousness, in 2002 Pat predicted that contrary to history, the GOP was poised for a landslide in the mid-term elections. He correctly called all the Senate races, even swearing that Saxby Chambliss was going to beat Max Cleland pretty handily, despite all polls to the contrary. My numbers for the President are not as optimistic as Pat's, but I still think he's going to win pretty handily. One thing I'll disagree with him on, if he's right and the President does get 55%, his electoral college numbers will be somewhere near 360. As far as his analysis goes, we speak with one voice there. There's nothing for me to add, so I'll get right to it. POPULAR VOTE President Bush - 52.6% John Kerry - 46.4% Ralph Nader - .8% Others - .2% ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTIONS (W/ SWING STATE PREDICTIONS AND PERCENTAGES) President Bush - 300 EV's John Kerry - 238 EV's Swing States and Percentages President Bush Wins: John Kerry Wins: SENATE PREDICTIONS GOP GAINS +3 GOP WINS: FL- Martinez DEMOCRATS WIN CO - Salazar HOUSE PREDICTION - GOP Gain: +3
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One can only hope.... And do his or her part, of course.
Let it be so Lord, let it be so! In The Name of Jesus, let it be so! AMEN!
Actually this makes a lot of sense. 300 electoral votes sound about right.
As it is written, let it be done! :^)
I hope you'll post after the election and show us how close they came. I like what they're saying.
And besides all this kerry is a commie sumbitch. WHY are CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, Rather, Jennings, PBS, NBC, so dammed bent on putting a man thay know is a commie in the C.I.C. position? This should be the ques. put to themover and over for the next 4 years, no 30 years!!!
No more Daschel? Hooray!
"As it is written, let it be done! :^)"
Amen!
I agree with around 300, but is that a landslide now?
I think it is!
I think with the amount of popular vote that you are both giving Bush he is going to do much better in the EV's.
Consistent with my wild uneducated prediction back when Kerry got nominated. Tried to take bets but got no takers ,
This reminds me so much of Mexico. The PRI had a hold of the country for 71 years, and they did this through outright voter fraud, giving tax payer money to buy votes, they used to horde the very low class indians in buses, gave them 5.00 dollars (50.00 pesos a while back) and a luch.
Sometimes the used to steal the ballot boxes, and months later these ballot boxes would show up in the country side.
That's why the country is so f****D up.
Works for me.
For starters, Knowles and Salazar aren't going to beat Murkowski and Coors...no way.
Minnesota is NOT a -2.4% going Kerry, it's Bush country this go.
Good insights otherwise for the most part...I think Bush has a really strong case for why he deserves 4 more years, period, over John Kerry, war or not...I know so.
From your prediction to God's ear........gosh that would be sooooooooooooo nice:))
I think Bush has the momentum and Battleground suggests good internals but there's a good chance of a nailbiter primary because the MSM will play the tricks of 2000 all over again with late calls for Bush and early calls for Kerry. Has anyone noticed people are slipping up and calling Kerry "Gore" all of a sudden, especially on talk radio.
I want a Bush re-election for America badly.
Overall the analysis seems sound but I think they're giving too much weight to the Osama tape. What I find wretched and totally indicative of how WUSSIFIED and rudderless he is, is Kerry has done polling on the frackin' Osama tape to get a direction! POLLING on Osama! Dear God Almighty. Help us.
Look at how they keep the education system in the gutter by undermining reform, look how they create "heroes" out of thugs and despots, look at their unceasing love for illegal criminal immigration. They're the Pigs of 1984, the party bosses of the old Kremlin.
Some are true believers, their unfortunately caught up in the cultish horror known as the Democrat spin machine. They're kept down, and undereducated, and underemployed to give the elites power and pawns.
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