Posted on 10/30/2004 3:37:39 PM PDT by ambrose
Race Stable On Final Weekend; Polling Memo from Stan Greenberg
10/30/2004 5:19:00 PM
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To: National Desk, Political Reporter
Contact: Chad Clanton or Phil Singer, 202-464-2800, both of Kerry-Edwards 2004
WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The following review of public and overnight polls was released today by Kerry-Edwards 2004:
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Stan Greenberg
RE: RACE STABLE ON FINAL WEEKEND Review of public and overnight polls
To give some perspective on the race in its final weekend, we might recall what Wolf Blitzer said on the day before the election, 2000: "And now, let's take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/USA Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent. And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls," going on to cite the Bush lead in polls for ABC, Washington Post, NBC-Wall Street Journal, CBS and MSNBC-Reuters- Zogby.
In fact, the public polls in 2004 show a remarkably stable and dead-locked race, with Bush stuck somewhere between 47 and 48 percent, short of what an incumbent should have to secure re- election.
The Democracy Corps has a new poll, conducted Friday night and Saturday morning. While the full survey will be completed on Sunday, the half-sample of 500 interviews conducted after the release of the Bin Laden tape, show the race unchanged compared to a survey completed Thursday night. The partial survey shows Kerry at 48 percent and Bush at 47 percent. Like the survey conducted before, it shows the two parties with equal numbers of party identifiers.
The Saturday respondents (250 interviews) were asked the following question: "I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the release of Bin Laden's videotape. Please tell me which one comes closer to your view.
-- It makes me think that George Bush took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan and diverted resources to Iraq.
-- It underscores the importance of George Bush's approach to the war on terrorism.
By 10 points (46 to 36 percent), voters were more likely to think that Bush took his eye off the ball. (These results will be updated when the full survey is completed on Sunday.)
The stability in this poll reflects the overall stability of the race for president. This past week, George Bush polled 47.9 percent as the average of the public polls. That represents only a .5 point change compared to the prior week. Indeed, if one looks at the polls released Saturday and including polling after the release of the Bin Laden tape, Bush's vote stands at 48 percent in one (Newsweek), 47 percent in one (Fox), and 46 percent in two (Zogby/Reuters and TIPP). That is a weaker result than for the polls released earlier in the week and prior to last weekend.
(These results are based on the results for registered, when available, as that is consistent across polls and has been a better predictor of the final outcome.)
Kerry's vote was also stable at 46.4 percent on average, up .1 percent compared to the previous week. That is a dead-even race, where the undecided will play the final role, as they almost always break heavily against the incumbent.
The undecided in the race is also stable. During this week, the average of the public polls was 4.4 percent. The polls completed for Saturday have an average undecided of 6 points. There is no evidence of undecided narrowing on this weekend or as result of recent events.
The Democracy Corps combined polls as of Friday showed that the undecided (prior to being pushed to a preference) leaned toward the Democrats by two-to-one and favored a significant change in direction over continuing Bush's direction by 58 to 29 percent, also two-to-one.
The tracking for the Kerry campaign, conducted for the whole battleground and in key battleground states at the end of the week, including Friday night, show Kerry with a clear and stable lead.
Bottom line, amidst the intensity of campaign's final days, it is important to keep one's eye on the stability and structure of this race, with Bush still short of what he needs to win.
http://www.usnewswire.com/
Dem polling firm run by James Carville. Caveat Lector...
Whistling past the graveyard!
Or POLLING in the GRAVEYARD
Chad Clanton is a Kerry shill...
Interesting how it mirrors the ARG numbers. My gut tells me that this is probably Kerry's best possible result (in all possible worlds) for right now.
Isn't he 'Hannibal Lecter'??
If Carville can only give Kerry a 1 point lead then Kerry must be in trouble
From what one of the pollsters said on Fox News this week it no longer matters about the national polls. The only poll that matters is the state by state polls and the electoral votes. Sounds just like Carville to try to get our attention away from the polls that matter. Like I would trust his polls anyway. NOT.
We need to publish every poll that puts Kerry ahead. It will energize Bush voters.
If you are winning you don't need to tell people, Carville. That just proves to me that he is lying, AGAIN. If this election turns out as bad for the DEMS as expected, we can put Carville and Begala in a home for crazy has-been political hacks. Where they belong.
ROFLOL!!!
The polsters ask slanted questions and still only get a 1 point lead ? Maybe Bush is really way out ahead.
Race is stable I think is good news for us - cuz we had the mo.. They are just sending this out to buck up the troops.
What about...
--It makes me think we cannot afford to have a person who thinks that terrorism is just a "nuisance" and an "overexaggerated" threat leading the country.
This is so pathetic it is pathetic.
This is so pathetic it is pathetic.
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