Bush Widens Lead at Iowa Electronic Markets

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm ^

[Republic Rocker]

Looks like the market is buying into the BUSH RE-ELECTION!!!!

[Merry]

Something is going on with Tradesport. Every Sunday night, Bush goes down and Kerry goes up. Someone must be manipulating it again.

[rebel_yell2]

Bush is falling in the Tradesports market.

What gives?

[skaterboy]

JAY COST over at HORSERACEBLOG checks in with this

State Poll Update 10/24
New polls were added today in most of the key battleground states. All but a few of them came from Zogby. I have updated my spreadsheet to account for them. Here is the present state of the race according to the polls. Note (again) that this is an unweighted average. I have included the margin of error for each, as well as the probability that Bush holds a lead in the state. Also note that I again do not maintain that this is a perfect picture of the race. Polls have different methodologies that make their reconciliation difficult. Nevertheless, I think this is the single best way to make sense of all these polls.

Ohio
Bush: 47.3%
Kerry: 46.1%
MOE: +/- 1.4%
(Based upon 7 Polls; 4,679 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 87.08%

Florida
Bush: 47.9%
Kerry: 45.8%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,634 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 97.19%

Iowa
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.2%
MOE: +/- 2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 2,026 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 96.49%

Wisconsin
Bush: 47.6%
Kerry: 45.6%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,126 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.95%

New Mexico
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.3%
MOE: +/- 2.2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 1,825 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.74%

Minnesota
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 46.9%
MOE: +/- 1.8%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,835 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 18.41%

Michigan
Bush: 44.9%
Kerry: 47.4%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,236 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 2.17%

Nevada
Bush: 48.1%
Kerry: 43.2%
MOE: +/- 1.3%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,351 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.88%

Colorado
Bush: 48.3%
Kerry: 44.7%
MOE: +/- 1.9%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,496 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.45%

Pennsylvania
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 47.7%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,654 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 3.75%

As you can see, the likelihood of a Bush lead has increased in WI, IA, OH, FL, NV, NM. Zogby had a poll showing Kerry in the lead in CO, but the small sample size and the fact that the other three polls were decisively in the other direction changed the overall conclusion that Bush has a lead outside the margin of error there. Kerry's only consolation in today's polls is that it has become more likely that he is leading in PA, MN and MI. However, these are not the states with which he is presently concerned. Generally, this reduces the likelihood of Kerry's best shot at winning the Electoral College if the election were held today from 1.9% to .03%. Bush's best shot at present remains winning FL, IA and WI. If the election were held today, he would be 89.04% likely to do this.

[RockinRight]

Two words:

George Soros.

[GoLightly]

Wish I had some free dough to play it. LOL I bet it takes a dive on November 1st.

[FairOpinion]

Tradesports is being manipulated. With the relatively few contracts traded, it's chump change for Soros to drive it down.

[skaterboy]

I wish these were MASON DIXON not Zogby cause he you know sucks

[Merry]

All my extra money this month went to the Swift Boat Veterans.

[GeronL]

PLEASE..... do more than a single line. Add some details or something.

[GoLightly]

Most of mine has gone to keep my car on the road. :( I put some bills on the back burner & gave what I could to the Swiftvets, though it's not near as much as I would have liked to have given them.

Buying into tradesports is one of those pipedream kinda things. LOL

[jdm]

Time to short sKerry.

[Cosmo]

It's kinda like predicting poker odds when all you've seen are your two cards and the flop.
The Turn comes tuesday and the river comes friday. lotsa betting in between. stay strong.

[teletech]

Iowa Electronic Markets

2004 Presidential Winner Take All

Quotes current as of 00:45:03 CST, Monday, October 25, 2004.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
DEM04_G52	0.153	0.165	0.151	---	---	---
DEM04_L52	0.238	0.244	0.237	---	---	---
REP04_L52	0.279	0.288	0.279	0.279	0.279	0.279
REP04_G52	0.317	0.325	0.318	0.318	0.318	0.318

[Republic Rocker]

Tradesports is being toyed........ Just saw a bid go in quickly at a higher amount than the last sell.......

[Petronski]

[Dolphy]

Mason Dixon had Kerry up 1 in Michigan a week ago, Zogby says he's up 10 today, the Detroit News has Bush up 5 today. I think Kerry scheduling a trip to Michigan and Bush doing the same thing means the race is close. The Detroit News poll is conducted by the one pollster who got Michigan right in 2000.

[Remember_Salamis]