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Efforts to Increase Domestic Supply Could Yield
Endnotes: 1. Based upon NPR-A NE program documents. Also, USGS Fact Sheet 045-02 (2002), “U.S. Geological Survey 2002 Petroleum Resource Assessment of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA). This assessment concluded that technically recoverable, undiscovered oil beneath the Federal part of NPR-A likely ranges between 5.9 and 13.2 billion barrels, with a mean (expected) value of 9.3 billion barrels. An estimated 1.3 to 5.6 billion barrels of those technically recoverable oil resources are economically recoverable at market prices of $22 to $30 per barrel. 2. Based upon NPR-A NW program documents. Ibid., USGS Fact Sheet 045-02 (2002). 3. Peak oil production at ANWR (1.2 MM bpd) is shown higher than the usual estimates (0.9 MM bpd). Assumes incentives to inject excess North Slope Gas hydrates and other NS gas into the ANWR fields in order to achieve higher daily production rates. AK heavy oil production is also assisted by such incentives. 4. Bunger, James W. et al, “Is oil shale America’s answer to peak-oil challenge?”, Oil & Gas Journal, Aug. 9, 2004, p. 16. Worldwide, the oil shale resource base is conservatively estimated at 2.6 trillion bbl and is located in about 26 countries. (Dyni, John R., “Oil Shale,” USGS, rev. Feb. 27, 2003, cf [http://emd.aapg.org/technical_areas/oil_shale.htm].) Almost 80% of the world’s oil shale endowment, about 2 trillion bbl, including both eastern and western deposits, is located within the US. (Duncan, D.C., and Swanson, V.E., “Organic-Rich Shales of the US and World Land Areas,” USGS Circular 423, 1965.) Bunger et al found that US oil shale will produce higher quality oil than Alberta tar sands with less expense. 5. Johnson, H.R., Crawford, P.M., and Bunger, J.W., principal authors, Strategic Significance of America’s Oil Shale Resource, DOE Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves, Volumes I (Assessment of Strategic Issues) and II (Oil Shale Resources Technology and Economics), March 2004. The report noted that the world’s remaining conventional oil resources total 2.7 trillion barrels while North America’s unconventional resources total 3.7 trillion barrels – 1.7 trillion in Alberta tar sands and 2.0 trillion in US oil shale. US oil shale is primarily found in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. As much as 750 billion barrels of US oil shale has a richness of 25 gal/ton or greater and could be produced with near-term adaptations of existing technology (Vol. I, p. 10). The report found that it is possible that an oil shale industry could be initiated by 2011 with an initial production of 200,000 bpd, with an aggressive goal of 2 million bpd by 2020. Ultimate capacity could reach 10 million bpd, a comparable capacity to the long-term prospects for Alberta’s tar sands. Oil shale’s direct economic value to the Nation may approach $1 trillion by 2020, not counting other equally or more valuable strategic and national security benefits that may not be fully measurable in dollars (Vol. I, p. 10). 6. Kuuskraa, V.A. and Godec, M.L., Lewin and Associates, Inc., A Technical and Economic Assessment of Domestic Heavy Oil, U.S. Department of Energy under subcontract to the Interstate Oil Compact Commission, April 1987. Report estimated that Alaska has 25 billion barrels of heavy oil in large reservoirs (each over 20 million barrels). The West Sak field alone contains more than 10 billion barrels of heavy oil. 7. Ibid. Report documented more than 100 billion barrels originally in-place in the U.S. heavy oil resource base. More than 80 billion barrels are in 248 large, heavy oil reservoirs (each over 20 million barrels). The bulk of the heavy oil resource is located in three states – California with 42 billion barrels, Alaska with 25 billion barrels, and Wyoming with 5 billion barrels. Smaller accumulations of 1 to 2 billion barrels (in reservoirs over 20 million barrels each) exist in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The report found that 4.5 to 9.1 billion barrels were economically recoverable at oil prices of $15 to $30 per barrel (constant 1986 dollars). At prices of $40 to $50 per barrel (1986 constant), nearly 20 billion barrels become economic. This 1987 report obviously fails to take into account technological advances since that time, nor does it assume Federal or state production incentives. Of note, more than 50 billion barrels is located in depths of less than 4000 feet. The resources documented in this report do not include resources classified as tar sands. 8. Lewin and Associates, Inc., Major Tar Sand and Heavy Oil Deposits of the United States, Interstate Oil Compact Commission in cooperation with the USGS and U.S. Department of Energy, July 1983. Report found that the total U.S. tar sand resource base is estimated at 54 billion barrels of oil. The measured in-place resource for major deposits is 22 billion barrels and the speculative resource in-place for major deposits is estimated at 31 billion barrels (not including the resource base offshore California). These resources are concentrated in Utah (20.1 BBO), Alaska (10.0 BBO), Alabama (6.5 BBO), Texas (4.8 BBO), California (4.7 BBO), and Kentucky (3.4 BBO). 9. Kuuskraa, Vello A., President, Advanced Resources International, “ ‘Stranded’ Oil Resources: The New Domestic Oil Prize,” testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, Committee on Resources, on “Advances in Technology: Innovations in the Domestic Energy and Mineral Sector,” July 15, 2004. Of the original U.S. domestic oil resources in place of 582 billion barrels, only 183 billion barrels have been produced. There are an additional 22 billion barrels of proved reserves. 60 billion additional barrels are potentially producible with advanced CO2 enhanced oil recovery technology. CO2 EOR currently produces 200,000 bpd in the US. Mr. Kuuskraa testified that a CO2 EOR policy initiative could add 1 million bpd by 2015 and 2 million bpd by 2025. 10. Most of the offshore Alaska production will be from the Arctic, but 120,000 bbl/day in 2015; 200,000 bbl/day in 2020; 180,000 bbl/day in 2025; and 140,000 bbl/day in 2030 will be from the North Aleutian Basin/Bristol Bay per unofficial estimates by MMS. Starting in 2015, the production from the Alaska OCS could easily be two to three times larger than the estimates included in this table. The Arctic OCS has the geologic potential of including at least half a dozen Prudhoe Bay-sized accumulations. 11. Radler, Marilyn, “Worldwide Reserves Increase as Production Holds Steady,” Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 23, 2002, p. 113. Commercial success of Alberta tar sands production resulted in the recent addition of 174 billion barrels of tar sand to Canada’s proved oil reserves. Production currently approximates 900,000 barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2003, on page 40, estimates that 1.7 trillion barrels of oil are in place within the Alberta tar sands. 12. Park, Gary, “Oil Sands Bombshell,” Petroleum News, March 14, 2004, p. 19. On March 3, 2004, a Canadian Energy Research Institute study found that over the next 13 years, production of oil from Alberta oil sands would more than double to 2.2 million barrels per day with oil prices of US$25 per barrel. Production could reach 2.8 million bpd with oil prices at US$32 per barrel and 3.5 million bpd at an “unconstrained” level. 13. Per the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, the mean risked recoverable hydrocarbons for the Nova Scotian offshore is 3 billion barrels of oil and 33 trillion cubic feet of gas. (Hydrocarbon Potential of the Deep-Water Scotian Slope, Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, October, 2002). Offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, as of May 2003, 2.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 9.9 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas have been discovered. Undiscovered resources studies have resulted in estimates of an additional 6 to 12 billion barrels of recoverable oil. (Sedimentary Basins and Hydrocarbon Potential of Newfoundland and Labrador, Report 2000-01, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Mines and Energy). 14. Article, “B.C. girds for offshore drilling,” globeandmail.com, February 18, 2004. British Columbia provincial government has made an initiative to remove the offshore drilling moratoria. Per the British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines, the British Columbia offshore is estimated to contain at least 9.8 billion barrels of oil and 41.8 trillion cubic feet of gas. 15. Extensive oil and natural gas discoveries have been made in the vicinity of the Mackenzie River delta both onshore and offshore. Production awaits construction of a pipeline and further discoveries. 16. Although all of the AK Onshore and Offshore production is not from the North Slope or Arctic OCS, at least 95% will be. These estimates point to the need for another oil pipeline from the NS by 2020 - latest 2025. 17. EIA estimated in its 2004 Annual Energy Outlook that U.S. oil imports may reach 19.8 million barrels of oil per day by 2025. |
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