Posted on 10/14/2004 3:22:59 PM PDT by Tribemike
Sample MoE Holt (R) Lincoln (D) Und Spread Zogby | 10/10-10/11 503 LV 4.5 32 60 - Lincoln +28 Opin Res | 10/4-10/6 502 LV 4.5 32 60 9 Lincoln +28 SUSA | 9/27-9/29 575 LV 4.2 40 54 2 Lincoln +14 SUSA | 8/20-8/22 561 LV 4.2 34 58 9 Lincoln +24
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Weak candidate, mainly. The GOP didn't recruit a good challenger and thus has not been spending much money on the race. Lincoln was effectively safe when Huckabee decided not to challenge her.
Yeah, its such a shame. What a lost opportunity.
Hey, that's life. Recruitment failures happen. We'd also be much more competitive in Wisconsin and Nevada if we'd drawn the right candidates. Nevada is particularly disappointing as Reid's always been weak and could probably have been retired had someone like Gov. Guinn taken him on.
It happens to the Democrats, too. Rendell could've given Specter a run for his money, but instead he'll waltz to victory over Hoeffel. Plenty of Kentucky Democrats might've taken out Jim Bunning, but none of 'em had the balls to make the try. His opponent, Dan Mongiardo, has resorted to disgusting smear tactics alleging that Bunning is senile.
You don't always get the candidates you want, and sometimes you have to write seats off in order to focus your resources where they've got a better chance of making a difference.
That is indeed the problem. Republicans are simply unelectable in the first district of Arkansas. There are too many older voters here who see the Democratic party as it was 50 years ago, and not as it is today. Its almost impossible to yank the blinders off of them.
Still, slowly but surely, I think the situation is changing. Young voters, in particular, who have no ties to the old Democratic party, are much more receptive to Republican stances due to religious beliefs and a conservative upbringing.
Of course you're right, but I look at it from the perspective of defeating Democrats, so I'm less aware of their lost opportunities.
Why didn't Gov Guinn take on Reid? That was one of the most disappointing recruitment failures as Reid only won by a few hundred votes last time.
Former Senator and now Governor Murkowski really screwed up when he deemed his own DAUGHTER to be the best person to take over his seat when he became governor. Of course people aren't going to respond well to such nepotism. Wasn't there a GOP congressman or state office holder he could have picked? Now a conservative state will likely elect a conservative-sounding Democrat who will no doubt promptly become a reliably liberal vote once in office. What was he thinking?
North Dakota was another bummer. Is there no good opponent to take on that state's liberal duo of Conrad and Dorgan? This year its Dorgan, and with Bush at the top of the ticket a strong opponenet may have been able to ride Bush's sure coattails in that state to victory.
Illinois is of course now a disaster, and to be fair it was always an uphill battle. But Ryan at least had a chance, whereas Keyes will lose spectacularly.
I don't know as much about Wisconsin, other than the fact that its like Nevada; a Democrat who barely won last time will win easily this time. Why didn't Tommy Thompson run? Maintaining control of the Senate is more important than being Sec of Health and Human Services, or whatever dept it is that he heads.
It would have been nice if a better challenge to Boxer in Calif could have been mounted. Pete Wilson should have run for his old seat. Yes I know, he is blamed for destroying the GOP in Calif by championing a popular ballot initiative that passed easily, and carried him to an easy victory for a second term. He was the last Republican to win an important, regularly scheduled state-wide race there.
The 1st district is poor because they are stupid.
Actually - Holt is a GREAT challenger - his message/platform matches the majority of Arkansas voters (believe it or not), but the State Republican Party is afraid of supporting any Republican who isn't basically a RINO.
Holt has had nearly no budget to run with - versus Blecchhhh Lincoln's MILLIONS of dollars.
I have talked to many people over the last few months regarding Holt - I consistently get the comment that he sounds great - but they are voting for Blanche....she is a Democrat and they have always voted for Democrats.
Then you have the sizable farm vote that, although politically conservative, are addicted to the lefts farm giveaways.
Gosh, I just hope and pray that there will be a huge Republican momentum in a conservative state like Arkansas. Holt really deserve the support and help he needs to get himself elected. Holt is a pro-life Christian and we need guys like Holt in the US Senate right now. The Republican Party should back him up if they're really serious in controlling the US Senate. I just don't understand their lack of excitement in this potential US Senate seat pick-up. The Arkansas US Senate race should've been an easy Republican takeover. And that goes the same thing to states like Wisconsin, Oregon, and Nevada.
Like I said in my post - lots of ignorant Yellow-Dogs in Arkansas, conservative-minded Democrat voters.
That and there is still a sizable government handout raised voter block in the Delta.
If voters in Arkansas all voted their conscience and beliefs, Conservatives would win every election here.
Also - when you look at the geography of Arkansas, you find that the areas that vote for liberals/Democrats are the poor sections, the areas that vote more conservative/Republican are thriving - even through this supposed bad economy.
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