Bush Lead is Gone

MSNBC ^ | 0 Oct 2004 | MSNBC

[Byron Norris]

By Brian Braiker Newsweek Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race. Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

[Byron Norris]

Tell me somebody this isn't true. I have seen the Rasmussen poll and Bush still leads by three, but this poll is scary. I really hope Bush did not screw up. John Kerry as President would be a nightmare.

[COEXERJ145]

Try searching Newbie before going into panic mode. Newsweak is playing with the numbers to help Kerry.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Not surprising that Kerry would get some kind of bounce from the debate. W looked tired and off his game. There are two more to go.

[Tarpon]

mmmmm tasty cooked polls are best served hot.

[SausageDog]

Tell me somebody this isn't true. I have seen the Rasmussen poll and Bush still leads by three, but this poll is scary. I really hope Bush did not screw up. John Kerry as President would be a nightmare.

Yes, I agree it would be a nightmare, but at least if he wins, we'll be spared Hilary in 2008.

[IronJack]

Wishful thinking. If Kerry "won" that debate, it was on strengths that don't translate too well to the chief executive's position. THings like appearance, poise, delivery. In all the categories that count -- substance, trust, honesty -- Bush trounced him.

If Kerry got a bounce, it might have been a point or two. But not nearly enough to close the gulf between him and the president.

[BunnySlippers]

BTW, the folks at DU are talking about several of them infiltrating here as Republicans. As the rest of the election plays out, lets keep our eyes out for them.

[Wormwood]

Yes, I agree it would be a nightmare, but at least if he wins, we'll be spared Hilary in 2008.

Now that, ladies and gentlemen, is a "glass half full" kinda guy. ;-)

[hobson]

This original story was not posted under this headline so you would never have found it. The discussion in the threads last night pointed out Newsweek's poll sampling pre and post debate is faulty.

[sushiman]

"W looked tired and off his game "

You'd think that Mr. Bush and his handlers would realize how important this first debate was , and have him bright eyed and BUSHYTAILED ( pun sorta intended ) and ON his game , n'est pas ? Perhaps he was up all night doing his overdue homework ?

[Popman]

TEOTWAWKI

[ejo]

Doesn't the monicker, "Slick Willie"

come to mind as you listen and ponder over kerrys inane remarks???

[jenbuff]

I think this bounce will be very temporary. Wait until after the VP debate when Cheney wipes the floor with the "Silky Pony." (credit goes to Laura Ingraham for that nickname)

[blarneystone]

I am in a bad mood this morning. so forgive my lack of optimizm. But i heard Bill Crystal call Kerry "President Kerry". ARRRRGGGHHH What a nightmare! If I wake up in November and this war criminal, traitor to our country is President I'm gonna have to go get lobotomized or something.

[EDINVA]

I've never once trusted a Newsweek poll. Do you remember their infamous 2002 poll showing Jeb Bush down 20 points in FL ? That was a few weeks before Jeb won by around 14 points.

[I_dmc]

One question to posters: If Kerry-Edwards win this one, will there be any place in the world where freedom reigns?

I see basically two sides in our land. One side's motto could be, "What's in it for me?". The other, "Get off my back government, I just want to be free". I really believe that no other land is less socialistic than ours, but for how long will that be true?

[beckysueb]

I was just over to DU while FR was down. They are gloating big time. They are bragging about lurking over here. They are even posting some of our comments. So I hope we keep it positive. I was on a thread last nite about this poll. Its bogus. Bush never had that 11 point lead that newsweek said he had. Just a smokescreen to take him down after the debate to make us feel bad. Lets not let their scheme work.

[Uncle Vlad]

"Yes, I agree it would be a nightmare, but at least if he wins, we'll be spared Hilary in 2008."

Are you sure about that?

[Flux Capacitor]

It's been stated elsewhere, but still needs to be shouted far and wide:

1. The poll was of registered, not likely, voters.

2. The poll was weighted in favor of Democrats, whereas the previous post-RNC Convention polls were weighted toward Republicans. Newsweek set us up for this quite a while ago.

3. The poll was conducted only in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones. In other words, it's trying to portray Left Coast voters as a representative sample of the country at large. L.A., San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland did not decide the last election and they will not decide this one.

4. Newsweek's numbers do not jibe with other polls that also showed Kerry winning the debate, but that also indicated no substantial drop in support for Bush. Nor do they jibe with these CNN/Gallup internals.

In short, the poll is complete B.S. concocted by a desperated partisan media outlet in an attempt to depress conservative voters and, they hope, suppress turnout. DON'T LET THESE LIARS GET TO YOU.

-Dan

[TheGeezer]

The Newsweek poll has been thoroughly debunked. Please see Littlegreenfootballs and Powerlineblog. At Powerline be sure to scroll down to The Comeback is Launched.

The attempt to make a comeback the news, rather than Kerry's Senate record and many other problems, will fail. We just have to sit through liberal MSM flailing for a couple of days first.