Posted on 10/01/2004 7:30:55 AM PDT by crushkerry
What accounts for President George W. Bush's recent and durable rise in the polls? Some argue the president is doing exceptionally well among female voters. Still others notice he's doing better among blacks than he did in 2000. Of course, the simplest answer is that the war on terror -- whether or not one includes the Iraq War in that family of issues -- is the dominant theme of the campaign, and in no physical model of the universe is that a formula for victory for a career peacenik like John Kerry.
Regardless of your school of thought, the trend is indisputable. States that once "leaned Democrat" (like Minnesota) are now "toss-ups" and states that were "toss-ups" (like Ohio and New Hampshire) just a few weeks ago now "lean Republican."
I believe I have stumbled upon one underpinning phenomenon driving this trend. I call it "Hate Fatigue." The theory is this: the Democrats wasted their hate for George W. Bush on movies, books, blogs, meet-ups, commission hearings, and protests over the last three years and they have just about run out of steam. And now that the election is upon us, their potent venom has run dry. Some have just given up.
One of the aforementioned Democrat states, New Jersey, provides a good example. Not even the most enthusiastic partisan should expect the Garden State to be in play this year. And yet a recent poll by Farleigh Dickinson University shows the race to be remarkably close there, 45%-44%. This is a reasonably strong figure for Bush (who received 40% of the N.J. vote in 2000), but the real story is closeness of the ballot and the exceptionally low figure for John Kerry (Al Gore received 56% of the N.J. vote in 2000.) To make matters worse for Kerry, 66% of Garden State Democrats "wish they had different choices" for president. And while President Bush is pulling down 85% of the state's Republican vote, John Kerry is receiving only 76% of its Democrat votes.
Lest we conclude this simply amounts to a lack of enthusiasm for Kerry personally, consider this datum: while two-third of Democrats believe Kerry will win New Jersey in November, only one-third of all Democrats think it will ultimately result in a Kerry presidency.
These people are demoralized.
BUT LET'S BE HONEST, this is New Jersey and the bulk of undecideds will swing to Kerry on Election Day, especially if they are undecided Democrats. Or they may not vote at all. Such a cocktail of Democratic frustrations and apathy often results in a suppressed Democratic turnout. That's how Ronald Wilson Reagan -- who was nowhere near as universally beloved in life as he is in death -- won Democrat states like New Jersey in 1984.
I have spoken to several Republican and politically unaffiliated pollsters in recent weeks and they confirm this trend is consistent throughout the country. In places where many voters are still furious about the Iraq War, President Bush is nonetheless on the move.
Again, I attribute these trends to a "Hate Fatigue" that hangs over the Democrat Party. I first encountered it in New Hampshire during the primary campaign. On a night when Howard Dean still rode high in the polls, I strolled into a bar and was shocked to see the place filled with young people clad in Dean for President grab, drinking imported beer, bee-bopping to alt rock, and cruising for hook-ups. That night I decided Dean would lose because his campaign mistook a visceral hatred for George W. Bush, expressed with fervency at meet-ups and chat rooms, with actual electioneering. Dean fell to earth almost as swiftly as he ascended to prominence.
Kerry, who benefited from the Deaniacs' childish hatred in the primary, has now fallen victim to a corollary phenomenon in this General Election. If some voters are still undecided after learning that George W. Bush is actually Adolf Hitler, knew about 911 before it happened, and alternately has Osama bin Laden in secret custody and has no interest in apprehending him at all, what more information could John Kerry possibly give them to push them over the edge? Jacques Chirac's home phone number?
And so many haters have turned to other venues to gratify their political urges. They purchased entries in the Bush Haters Book-of-the-Month Club by the hundreds of thousands. They were glued to their small screen during the so-called 9/11 Commission hearings. They flocked to obese, low-budget filmmaker Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 911 to suspend their disbelief and see what the world would be like if all their conspiratorial dreams came true.
But the movie is over. The credits have rolled. The lights are back on. And the radicals are out of their seats, stretching and yawning. They are tired and emotionally spent. It's time to go home. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Bush is still Hitler. But hey, they bought some books. They saw the movie. They even blogged. What more could the Democrat Party want from them?
Patrick Hynes is a senior account executive and lean copywriter for the Republican consulting firm Marsh Copsey + Scott. He is also the proprietor of www.crushkerry.com
Ping
Bush looked very ordinary last night.
Ordinary is a good thing - no horns and hooves, and best of all, no droning head-masterish cant, such as Kerry displayed.
Bush neutralized Kerry's thrusts, and that's all he had to do. I think the American people 'smell the barn', and just want to get the election over.
Bush will get over 300 electoral votes.
I just do not understand why so many FReepers have their pajama bottoms in a wad over W.'s performance last night. His was a simple message delivered to a group of people who can't even decide on dinner, much less politics. These people are like children, you don't ask children WHAT they want for dinner. Hell, the whole world is open to them and the choices are just too much. You say, do you want a hamburger or a hot dog? Simple. They think they are choosing. They just don't understand that the choice is limited. Kerry asked voters what they wanted for their future. W. asked them if they wanted security or uncertainty. I think he handled it perfectly.
I just do not understand why so many FReepers have their pajama bottoms in a wad over W.'s performance last night. His was a simple message delivered to a group of people who can't even decide on dinner, much less politics. These people are like children, you don't ask children WHAT they want for dinner. Hell, the whole world is open to them and the choices are just too much. You say, do you want a hamburger or a hot dog? Simple. They think they are choosing. They just don't understand that the choice is limited. Kerry asked voters what they wanted for their future. W. asked them if they wanted security or uncertainty. I think he handled it perfectly.
Hate fatigue. Kinda like hurricane fatigue. Great article.
Kerry didn't do a thing to alleviate it last night. The dims will live it, the country will sigh, loudly and walk away.
There's no doubt Bush was hesitant and stumbled at times, but his voice rang with sincerity and there was no question about his resolve and enthusiasm for seeing things through, in good times and in bad.
Kerry was slick, tis true, he didn't hesitate or stumble as much as Bush, but his answers were clearly memorized stock phrases. His enthusiasm level has improved from earlier speeches, but it still felt to me like it came out of a can. Speeches that came out of cans are just canned opinions, often not even the candidate's. So his performance didn't make me feel he was trustworthy, which was the major hurdle he needed to climb in order to make swing voters likeh im.
In terms of their mastery of policy substance, I think they were close. But in terms of trustworthiness, there's no question Bush was ahead by miles.
D
Instead, he came across as sincere. Kerry came across as someone who would seek French permission before defending the country. Kerry was more animated, but I'm not sure that won him any votes.
if it's true the US average reading/comprehension level is
about 8th grade, Kerry is wasting time being nuanced.
Using ten dollar words for one dollar concepts is foolish.
Furthermore, demeaning our allies helping in Iraq is not
admirable for someone wanting to be CIC. So what if Fiji
can only contribute around 100 people. The DEM party motto
is each according to their means, right?
Excellent analysis. One other thing -- even though the RATs have been calling Bush Hitler for many months, they thought that the smoking gun that would knock him out of office was him missing a physical! That's like saying that Hitler was a bad man because he didn't floss regularly.
RE: "no droning head-masterish cant"
"But in the town it was well known
When they got home at night, their fat and
Psycopathic wives would thrash them
Within inches of their lives"
I seriously doubt that the Kerry campaign and their 527 ilk's have "run out of steam" - if anything, I expect to see a vicious ramp-up the next two weeks or so.
However, here is how I view the "Hate Fatigue," and why the trend is moving more and more towards Bush: the target audience of the hate messages are either (A) already partisanly reflexively committed to Kerry already ("Kool Aid" supporters), and (B) the undecideds are the ones suffering the actual fatigue: they are tired of hearing of it, and they don't have anything positive in response to link to Kerry.
Hatred to vote against one candidate is no match for positive enthusiasm to vote FOR a candidate. Negative emotions will not endure as long as positive ones do. Negatives are good short-term, not long-term. Eventually, either the message just gets ignored, or even worse, inoculated (which, thanks to CBS and Dan Rather, the latter seems to be picking up momentum).
The Kerry campaign has utterly failed to complete the message of "We hate Bush, but, Kerry is also the better candidate because of (insert ANY policy issue here, anything at all)"...
The Kerry and DNC campaign message has been simply just the "We hate Bush, so vote for Kerry" - it's a halfway message, that's why it's failing.
I don't mean that even IF they completed the message it would resonate among the few undecideds left, but, it would have more potential to do so.
;^)
I'm betting JF'nK is very, very afraid of Virginia Woolf!
I think you are right after further consideration.
People were just frustrated that he didn't "clean Kerry's clock" when he could have...
People with bains knew what FNK was doing last night, just like when intelligent jurors can see through the BS that an attorney in a court room is spreading all over.
The folks with brains have long known who is the man to lead us.
The others...well...the others will continue to proliferate like roaches unfortunately. [Causes: Multiculturalism/unlimited immigration, leftist propaganda via Press, Education, TV, entertainment]
In short, Bush is a REAL man, with a REAL heart...and it showed.
Interesting GALLUP Poll: although most said FNK won the debate, MOST OF THOSE said Bush was more likable and believable....so FNK didn't really "win" except on showmanship.
Thank you :) W.'s message is nothing more than common sense ideas delivered in a no-nonsense way, stating his values and beliefs repeatedly for maximum understanding by these undecideds. Even his reason for being at the debate was simple: He said he was there to ask for their vote. simple. to the point. and not a lot for these hand-wringers to have to contemplate. Obviously they get overwhelmed easily by too many ideas, choices, and words. Fine. This is where I stand. This is why I believe. And I'm here to ask you for your vote. Brilliant strategy. IMO
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