Futures Traders Betting on Bush

NewsMax ^ | September 23, 2004 | Carl Limbacher

[Kaslin]

It's Bush in the 'Futures'

And as an investor, George Soros is betting Democratic presidential contender John Kerry will win, but that puts him in the minority of his peers.

Bloomberg News is reporting that most futures markets bettors believe President Bush will retain his office in November, and by an ever-widening margin:

• The Dublin-based Intrade Exchange Internet yesterday put Bush ahead of Kerry with 69 percent, up from 49 percent Aug. 13;

• The Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit political betting system run by the University of Iowa, gave Bush a 60 percent likelihood of victory, up from 50 percent Aug. 21;

• A separate index in the Iowa exchange shows Bush receiving 52.7 percent of the popular vote compared with 49 percent Aug. 19 – Kerry gets 47 percent;

• In a poll of 291 investors by Merrill Lynch & Co. taken after the Republican National Convention, 66 percent believe Bush will win;

• "In an Aug. 25 survey of 37 hedge fund managers by the New York-based research and securities trading company, 67 percent said Bush would win, up from 47 percent in a July 21 survey, which had 53 percent predicting a Kerry win," Bloomberg reported. The financial newswire adds, perhaps ominously for the Kerry campaign, "Only twice in the last century - the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore - did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote."

Billionaire leftist Soros, however, is bucking the trends. "One of the most prescient market gurus is betting firmly on the other side," says his spokesman, Michael Vachon.

[finnman69]

big ups

[Grampa Dave]

[Kaslin]

A great graph

[Mr. Silverback]

The financial newswire adds, perhaps ominously for the Kerry campaign, "Only twice in the last century - the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore - did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote."

Which is why it was so brilliant to have a futures market on terrorism. I don't care if some fatcat would be making money because he predicted Chicago would get nuked in a particular month, I just care that he would have predicted it, and we could have prepared for this stuff.

BTW, some of these Presidential predictors end up being pretty spooky...like the one where the First lady who has the most liked cookie recipe is the one who gets to pick the Curtains in the White House...

Billionaire leftist Soros, however, is bucking the trends. "One of the most prescient market gurus is betting firmly on the other side," says his spokesman, Michael Vachon.

Good. Keep pouring that money down the MoveOn hole, George!