Posted on 09/17/2004 12:56:52 AM PDT by tortoise
I spent Thursday evening at a San Francisco Bay Area political activism event that was being run by former Dean staffers and current operators in the Kerry campaign. As a comfortable and experienced operator who has no difficulty in "passing" among militant liberals even though a couple of the people there knew me, I decided it would be a good time to gauge the state of the Kerry campaign from the inside and to talk politics with the people that were there. I learned quite a few things, some of which surprised me and some of which didn't.
1.) There is a great deal of conflict over whether the CBS memos were forged or not. It seems that a lot of hardcore liberals have accepted the fact that the documents were fake, but there are still some that are clinging on to the slightest shred of possibility that those memos were genuine as though their lives depended on it. Mentioning it in a room full of Democrats is like tossing a grenade, and they'll generate much heat arguing with each other.
2.) It is no longer a faux pas to say that you think Kerry is a lousy candidate choice among the KoolAid drinkers, and many Democrats are turned off by what even they describe is a New England elitist snobbishness that he can never seem to shake. This is San Francisco, so that New England attitude doesn't fly. I offered that I didn't think Kerry was a particularly good choice of candidates and many of the ultra-libs jumped in and stated that they quite frankly detested Kerry -- remember they thought I was one of them. Howard Dean was liked by a great many people, but a lot of liberal Democrats and party activists openly admit that they can barely stomach Kerry if you bring the topic up. When I first brought that point up to see what they thought of him, I wondered if I would get lynched at the first vaguely negative word. In truth, they had harsher words for him than I did.
3.) The the majority of Democrats, at least in the San Francisco area, think that the election is already over and that Bush has won. At this point, they are going through the motions and already planning the next campaign season. There are a few Kool-Aid drinkers who think Kerry will win big, but those folks are in the clear minority. Most are looking at this campaign as the worst they can remember and have already written it off as decided.
My analysis after having attended the event is that the hardcore Democrats are far more dismal about their prospects than is generally reported and that most of them have already thrown in the towel. Even the ones that haven't thrown in the towel don't like Kerry as a candidate and dearly wish they had selected someone else, even most of the Kool-Aid drinkers. I kind of expected most of them to be Kerry-bots, but they aren't. This gives me a sneaking suspicion that the Democrats aren't going to be showing up at the polls come election day.
Mix a Republican preference in the polling data with a Democrat base that isn't going to show up in the polls and you'll get surprises, landslides, and upsets. Something else too: if the Democrats stay home in California or vote Nader, and many are greatly displeased with Kerry, Bush could in theory pull a squeaker in California if the Republicans have a strong turnout. There may be more Democrats who'll claim they'll vote for Kerry than Republicans, but many don't look interested in voting at all this year -- energized base my ass. On that note, the girlfriend's entire family (immigrants living in California) registered to vote for the first time so that they could vote for Bush. That's an anecdote, but they decided to do it on their own (it wasn't my doing) and they probably aren't the only ones.
Prediction:
Lanslide Cake with California Frosting
Good on you for your bravery and reporting. Good on your GF's parents.
This is great news. Thanks.
Attended a liberal hate fest huh? In the words of Danny boy...Courage.
You are very brave. Thanks!
I hope you had a Hazmat shower set up to use afterwards ;-).
In all seriousness, good for you. This reminds me of the time I infiltrated a rally for Carol Mostly-Fraud (FORMER US Senator) Carol Moseley Braun, where the organizers literally asked me if I wanted to be a pollwatcher for their campaign. I asked innocently what my responsibilities would be, and they replied (no fooling), "To go into the polls and help people decide who to vote for!" (implying Sen. Mostly-Fraud). I wish I'd thought to wire myself up with a tape recorder before going to that event......
California would be a Golden state Golden prize, but I still want to operate as if we are 20 points behind.
Good work corporal tortoise. Tell me - during your mission who were the current scapegoat whipping boys in the conversations among the koolaid drinkers.
They seemed to have tired on the evil ashcroft rants. They also appear exhausted by talking about how horrible coulter is (while then saying 'but I wish she were on our side'). I haven't even heard bush compared to a chimp lately. Who exactly are on the current koolaid drinkers enemy list?
Good on your family for taking part in this thing we call freedom. I remember the first time I voted.
Got a call from my dad that night. Was very cool.
Sweeeeet music to my ears!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just the thought of Bush winning in California makes me smile from ear to ear and beyond!!!!
Thanks for the interesting report.
Great analysis too!
Interesting insights; thank you very much for taking the time to do this, and of putting yourself in the belly of the beast.
If the hard Left of SF have lost hope then the rest of the dems may be over the edge already as well.
We can hope, but it's better to make sure that we all get out to vote in November :-)
We need to make it such a monumental landslide that Kerry's 4000 lawyers don't even try to pull any shenanigans.
Excellent report. Having lived in SF for a number of years, there are certainly a number of crazy liberals there. By the way, if they saw today's Gallup numbers showing a 13 point lead, they would have been more depressed.
Great work -- Thanks!
My experience is much the same. Dems have given up, at least internally.
Well, they selected a terrible candidate. Noone's fault but their own.
i hope you shaved your pubes and showered with kerosene to get the lice off...
Thanks for your efforts and good report.
did they pin hope on the debates?
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